On Substack, Ryan Perkins Geopolitics: https://ceinewsletter.substack.com/
On X: https://x.com/ChinaIndicator
Is the crisis in Iran actually a financial weapon aimed at China? Alex and Alexander sit down with geopolitics analyst Ryan Perkins to unpack how Scott Bessent's energy and fertilizer shock strategy may be designed to trigger a currency crisis and industrial recession inside China, fracture BRICS, and warn the Global South away from de dollarization. From the Strait of Hormuz to a possible new Plaza Accord, could this be the most consequential economic trap of the decade?
00:00:00 Introduction, Ryan Perkins joins from Beijing
00:02:35 Researching the Iran war strategy since March
00:05:11 Was closing the Strait of Hormuz the real goal
00:07:42 The pro Yuan hypothesis explained
00:09:12 Scott Bessent and his history of market manipulation
00:10:18 Oil price predictions toward 150 dollars a barrel
00:11:39 The three targets, China, BRICS and the Global South
00:12:32 India's triple exposure to the crisis
00:14:11 China's industrial value added vulnerability
00:18:15 The offshore Yuan and dollar system asymmetry
00:24:29 The trap, engineering a Chinese industrial recession
00:26:23 How China has been preparing for years
00:31:37 Reassessing the tariff war as a pressure test
00:35:46 Bessent and Soros, a pattern of currency attacks
00:37:34 The real goal, a new Plaza Accord with China
00:41:26 India and Brazil pivoting back toward the US
00:43:02 Why the BRICS payment system stalled
00:48:04 Impressions from the Vladivostok forum
00:51:55 Power of Siberia 2 and the Mongolia route dispute
00:54:53 Why Chinese taxi drivers say it's all about China
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