Inflation is falling, but it’s still higher than we want it to be. What’s making it hard to tackle? And what will determine how prices and wages develop?

Our host Katie Ranger gets to the bottom of this with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane in our new Summer School mini-series.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 4 August 2023 and recorded on 27 July 2023.

Additional material

Consumer Expectations Survey  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html 

Economic Bulletin: Underlying inflation measures: an analytical guide for the euro area https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_05~84e89bcb5d.en.html

The ECB Podcast: are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html 

Our monetary policy statement at a glance – July 2023  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2023/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html

The ECB Podcast Summer School #1: a deep dive into inflation

The European Central Bank Podcast – bringing you insights into the world of economics and central banking. 

Our host Stefania Secola talks to experts about the topics and trends that matter to the eurozone economy today.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

News

What are inflation expectations? How do our personal experiences shape them? And why do they matter to central banks?

In this episode of The ECB Podcast, our host Stefania Secola and researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos discuss how people form expectations about inflation and how we measure them.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 26 April 2024 and recorded on 19 April 2024.

In this episode:

01:35 – Inflation expectations
What are inflation expectations, and why do they matter for central banks? How do people form such expectations?

9:25 – The impact on prices
Can inflation expectations shape the prices we end up paying? How might personal perceptions influence wages?

11:30 – Measuring inflation expectations
Why is it important to measure inflation expectations, and how do we do it at the ECB? What were the findings of our latest survey?

16:38 – The role of the ECB
What can the ECB do to inform people’s inflation expectations? And what role can communication play in this?

21:15 – Our guests’ hot tips
ECB researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos share their hot tips and some final thoughts with our listeners.

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html

Working Paper: Tell me something I don’t already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings, March 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2914~d6a8832bf5.en.pdf?e655c8b68e7c2fb096387a4da34c42e6

Research Bulletin: Recent changes in consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations – a detailed look, February 2023
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb230224~558beec65c.en.html

Economic Bulletin issue 3/2024:  Trust in the ECB – insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey, April 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202403.en.html#toc24 

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

The power of inflation expectations

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. 

Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers:
-	how the economy is performing 
-	how we expect prices to develop
-	the risks to the economic outlook 
-	the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions

Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 April 2024

Additional material

Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2024/html/mopo_statement_explained_april.en.html

Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is240411~9974984b58.en.html

Monetary policy decisions, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240411~1345644915.en.html

Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240411~58dd9ec73d.en.pdf?566c397f0364d717913bf7770e67bf17

European Central Bank 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html


You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast

President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 11 April 2024

We have made good progress in our fight against inflation since we started to tighten our monetary policy in 2022. Where do we stand right now? And what are we keeping a close eye on in the economy?

Host Stefania Secola discusses these topics with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. They also talk about the ECB’s recent changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 25 March 2024 and recorded on 21 March 2024.

In this episode:
01:23 – Inflation right now
How has inflation evolved since its peak in late 2022? What is the outlook for the year ahead and what will shape our future decisions?

03:30 – Wages and inflation
How are rising wages affecting inflation, and is the situation the same across all euro area countries?

09:54 – The state of the labour market
Unemployment is historically low, but economic growth is projected to be lower than in previous years. What might the coming months hold for the labour market?

13:54 – The ECB’s operational framework
Why have we reviewed our operational framework for implementing monetary policy? How does it help our work to keep prices stable?

19:02 – Our guest’s hot tip
Our guest, Philip R. Lane, encourages our listeners to read a paper that looks at the macroeconometric models used at the ECB for forecasting and policy analysis.

Further Reading:
The ECB Podcast: Are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html 

Occasional Paper 344: ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op344~53b9e2aa4d.en.pdf?14821c7f99280514dbdaa26114c4f565 

Press release: ECB announces changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr240313_1~a3a50a9add.en.html 

Economic Bulletin Issue 2/2024, Article 1: The impact of recent shocks and ongoing structural changes on euro area productivity growth
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202402_01~d63ecff49c.en.html 

Press release: Monetary policy decisions (7 March 2024)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Quo vadis, inflation?

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% target in a timely manner. 
Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers:

-	how the economy is performing 
-	how we expect prices to develop
-	the risks to the economic outlook 
-	the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions

Recorded and published on 7 March 2024

Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 7 March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2024/html/mopo_statement_explained_march.en.html 
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 7 March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2024/html/ecb.is240307~314650bd5c.en.html
Monetary policy decisions, 7 March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html
Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 7 March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240307~8e06c79bf2.en.pdf?e86e578f1a99fdaa095a37dc4f1f6355

European Central Bank 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast

President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions –  7 March 2024

Did you know that euro banknotes are getting a makeover? As the euro turns 25, let’s look at the road ahead for our banknotes. What will future euro banknotes look like, why do we need them, and when can we start using them? 

Join our host Stefania Secola and Sarai Artiles, who works on banknote communications, to find out more.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 10 February 2024 and recorded on 1 February 2024.

In this episode:

00:05 – The euro is turning 25
The euro unites us – it is used by 350 million people in 20 countries! Euro banknotes are a physical reminder of our shared identity. 

01:56 – Why are we redesigning euro banknotes?
Security, environmental aspects and relatability: these are just some of the reasons we are designing a new series of euro banknotes.  

05:28 – Many cultures, one euro 
Euro banknotes are used by people with different backgrounds, cultures, and languages. How can future banknotes represent them all?

08:50 – What will they look like? 
“European culture” and “Rivers and birds” have been selected as the themes for future euro banknotes. Does this mean we already know what they’ll look like? 

10:20 – When can we start using them?
We have the themes, but what’s next in the banknote redesign process? When can we expect to start using these new banknotes? 

12:30 – Our guest’s hot tip

Additional material:

Press release: ECB selects “European culture” and “Rivers and birds” as possible themes for future euro banknotes
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr231130~cad7fa27ab.en.html

Press release: ECB surveys Europeans on new themes for euro banknotes
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr230710~77cf718c59.en.html

Podcast: All you need to know about euro banknotes
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod220205_episode27.en.html

Webpage: FAQ on the redesign of euro banknotes
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/future_banknotes/html/ecb.faq_banknotes_redesign.en.html

Webpage: The redesign process
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/future_banknotes/redesign/html/index.en.html

European Central Bank
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/

The ECB Podcast Summer School #1: a deep dive into inflation

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