In this week’s episode of The Economic Effect, former Chief Economist John Silvia examines the growing concerns over credit quality and what it means for the broader economy.

Despite solid economic growth and a Federal Reserve in easing mode, investors are increasingly uneasy about rising loan delinquencies, corporate credit risks, and private credit weaknesses. John unpacks the data behind these fears—from the uptick in credit card and auto loan delinquencies to early warning signs in corporate profits and bond spreads.

While credit concerns have intensified, the data so far show no widespread credit contraction—but John warns of the indicators that could signal one ahead.

Stay informed on how credit quality and monetary policy shape economic momentum.

This week on The Economic Effect, host John Silvia analyzes the Federal Open Market Committee’s recent decision to lower the federal funds rate and adjust its balance sheet strategy—moves aimed at supporting growth but likely to add pressure on inflation and weaken the U.S. dollar.

John breaks down the implications of these policy shifts on markets, inflation, and labor dynamics, offering his perspective on why the Fed’s actions may risk fueling another round of speculative excess. He also examines signs of financial market overextension, rising consumer delinquencies, and the growing disconnect between profit fundamentals and equity prices.

The key takeaway: in a “run it hot” economy, caution remains the most valuable asset.

Stay informed—subscribe to The Economic Effect and sign up for John’s weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com.

Inflation is heating up—and the reasons run deeper than your grocery bill. In this week’s episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia breaks down how expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with tariffs, are fueling persistent price pressures across the economy. From higher coffee and olive oil prices to the stock market’s “run it hot” trade, John examines the forces driving growth, inflation, and risk in today’s markets.

Stay informed on what’s shaping the economy.

In this week’s episode of The Economic Effect, former Chief Economist John Silvia examines what the gold rally reveals about inflation expectations, the U.S. dollar, and investor confidence in economic policy. From the Fed’s easing stance to rising commodity prices and an overstretched equity market, John breaks down how “restrictive” policy may be anything but.

Get clear insights on where inflation, interest rates, and the dollar are headed — and why the lessons from 1979 may matter more than ever.

📩 Stay ahead of policy shifts and market trends — subscribe to John’s weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com.

This week on The Economic Effect, former Chief Economist John Silvia explores how soaring government debt is shaking markets across the globe. From the collapse of France’s government to rising U.K. borrowing costs, Argentina’s fragile reforms, and mounting U.S. deficits, John reveals why sovereign debt can’t be ignored — and what it means for growth, interest rates, and investors.

🎧 Tune in for clear insights on the forces shaping today’s economy and practical takeaways for investors navigating this uncertain environment. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com to stay ahead of what’s next.

Markets are gearing up for a potential Fed rate cut in September — but easing comes with trade-offs. In this episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia unpacks what lower short-term rates and expanded credit could mean for economic growth, inflation, and asset valuations.

From equity markets and private credit to crypto and the dollar, investors face both opportunities and challenges. Inflation remains sticky, long-term Treasury yields are resistant, and fiscal stimulus is adding fuel to the fire. The question now is whether faster growth can outweigh the risks of higher prices and rates.

🎧 Tune in for clear insights on the forces shaping today’s economy and practical takeaways for investors navigating this uncertain environment. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com to stay ahead of what’s next.

Markets are gearing up for a potential Fed rate cut in September — but easing comes with trade-offs. In this episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia unpacks what lower short-term rates and expanded credit could mean for economic growth, inflation, and asset valuations.

From equity markets and private credit to crypto and the dollar, investors face both opportunities and challenges. Inflation remains sticky, long-term Treasury yields are resistant, and fiscal stimulus is adding fuel to the fire. The question now is whether faster growth can outweigh the risks of higher prices and rates.

🎧 Tune in for clear insights on the forces shaping today’s economy and practical takeaways for investors navigating this uncertain environment. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com to stay ahead of what’s next.

What if small businesses know more about the future of the economy than Wall Street does?

Small businesses are the heartbeat of the U.S. economy—and their latest survey reveals a story you can’t afford to miss.

In this episode, John Silvia digs into the newest NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report, uncovering what’s really happening behind the headlines. Optimism is climbing back above its 52-year average, but so is uncertainty—painting a picture of growth shadowed by risk.

Why are firms raising prices faster than last year? Why is labor quality a bigger problem than labor cost? And what do these pressures mean for profits, Fed policy, and ultimately your investments?

From inflation that won’t let up, to hiring struggles, to the warning signs in compensation trends—these ground-level insights tell us where the economy is headed next.

Want more timely economic insights every week? Subscribe to John Silvia’s newsletter at johnesilvia.com.

The latest U.S. tariffs are sending ripples through inflation, interest rates, and currency markets. Former Chief Economist John Silvia connects the dots between slowing consumer spending, manufacturing job losses, and the surprising behavior of the U.S. dollar. Get the clear, market-savvy perspective you need to stay ahead.

For more expert insights and weekly economic updates, visit johnesilvia.com and subscribe to the newsletter.

In this episode of The Economic Effect, host and former Chief Economist John Silvia analyzes three major economic indicators shaping the outlook for markets and monetary policy: second-quarter GDP, the latest FOMC policy statement, and June’s personal income and core PCE inflation data.

John discusses the rebound in GDP growth to 3.0% in Q2, but notes underlying weakness in consumer and business investment amid tariff uncertainty. He interprets the FOMC’s July statement and Chair Powell’s press conference as a signal that no imminent rate cuts are likely—especially with inflation climbing above the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment remaining low. Core PCE inflation now stands at 2.8%, while Treasury yields adjust in response to a more hawkish policy stance.

The takeaway? Despite softening momentum, the U.S. economy continues to operate near full employment, and rate cuts in the near term appear unlikely.