You can listen to me talk through these 4 theses in more detail by listening above (~15 min)
PRE-S: Unplugging and learnings from time away.
In my last post, experiments in cutting inputs, I mentioned that I was away on a bit of a retreat to a cabin in Northern California. The plan was to unplug, get off Twitter, and see if I had any original thinking on Crypto. By original, I don’t mean built whole cloth from scratch, but rather clarifying my own thinking in a way that I begin to integrate more deeply my understanding of crypto markets and the future.
The takeaway: It took about 7-9 days for me to start having ideas come to me.
While this post is sharing some high-level points on my thinking, I find it fascinating that it wasn’t until about a week in that my mind had “settled” from all of the inputs I typically consume.
Hiking, making fires, and being outside helped. I like to think the air here has something to it, given that I’m not breathing in city life but instead getting a bit more in tune with nature by eating apples from the garden nearby, and breathing in the microcosm produced by the nature nearby.
Nature helps with more grand thinking.
So I find a lot of my views on crypto had “zoomed out.” I have been thinking less about the short-term price movements and more about where we are going as a whole.
Here are some things I’ve been thinking about…
*Stay tuned for part 2, with takeaways 5-9
Takeaway 1: Crypto isn’t just “Crypto”, it’s a pillar of a broader global change taking place.
One thing that tends to happen with crypto is that the more you zoom out and look at the big picture, the more you begin to understand that this macro change happening right now is so massive that I think we are still drastically underestimating what is occurring.
Because Crypto is not just “Crypto”, this scene lives in the context of the backdrop of global markets, COVID, political polarization and populism, technological disruption, and more.
I emerged more bullish than ever, mostly because I think the macro winds of decentralization, digitization, and polarization play in favor of crypto-economics.
Because the tectonic plates are shifting, we’re in a unique moment where there exists an opportunity to rebuild many of our past institutions from the ground up. Crypto’s wedge into creating change is by replacing and upgrading the base layer of our coordination stack: Money. This will have implications for almost every other layer of the stack (including culture).
Takeaway 2: The velocity of money, transactions, and trust all increase as the friction to transact is removed.
When I started Death to Stock, my business partner was in New Zealand. We worked with artists in Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, and more. Almost everything we did was based on trust. We used slow payment methods and had many social contracts with the people we worked with.
When we don’t need that trust, because of cryptographic proofs, blockchains will remove many of the frictions for this type of commerce.
Any time you reduce friction, you onboard more people, and velocity increases. I can imagine many of the “friction” based, trust-based elements of how we conducted being replaced by blockchains.
The velocity of money in the crypto markets is massive and will continue to grow because we continue to remove friction from the movement of money.
This leads to many more people working in this fashion with people around the globe, and you won’t even need to know their true identities.
Takeaway 3: The internet still “wants media to be free,” but it has discovered how to monetize the long-tail.
Perhaps a bit contrarian, but I do believe that the best state of all media is free. We want to utilize the infinite scalability and replication of media to spread our ideas as far and wide as possible.
However, when we re-package the long tail into a marketplace, people will pay.
NFT’s give us a great example of this. The minting of an NFT arguably should be near free, given that the larger the distribution, the bigger the market for resale.
Because NFT owners take a cut of resale, what matters is the distribution and growth of secondaries. The more relevant to the market, the more transactions can happen that will monetize the attention.
There will be exceptions of course, brands that have already built cache, can continue to capitalize (picture famous artists, luxury brands), but for new brands, it’s more important to continually be spreading awareness.
I can imagine books that launch free, or always have free versions. Special editions will be bought and sold and transacted which will accrue to the creator. Remixes of the book turned into videos will help spread the message that leads back to sales.
Takeaway 4: The Moat of Web3 tech businesses will be how many contracts are written to their “base layer.”
What creates and retains value for a business in the future, when everything is open and transparent?
Companies will accumulate “contracts” to their base layer. This means code, media, and capital, all pointing (like Google backlinks) to your trusted base layer. The more trust you build, the more people will write their contracts to your business.
The more contracts, the harder it is for a competitor to catch up, and get your user base to switch. While people will have easy means of interoperating their data, capital, and media, they have to have the will to do so.
If you create accumulating benefits, with a base layer they are happy to commit to, competitors will have to work hard to pry your existing contracts to their chains or protocols.
Trust is accumulated over time, as you accrue more social and capital commits that power your business, it becomes more difficult for a competitor to get the “nodes” in your community to change.
*Stay tuned for Part 2: Takeaway’s number 5-9
XX I’m David Sherry, I coach early-stage founders, invest in crypto, and write on the overlap of investing, crypto, and the creator economy.
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