The ELEVEN: US Markets

THE ELEVEN: US MARKET

BAD NEWS RALLY - Wall Street's Favorite Paradox

Episode 14: Week 32: August 3 - 9, 2026

Key Themes & Analysis — Week 32

●      The Paradox Rally: A shockingly weak jobs report pushed the S&P 500 to a record close, as traders bet a struggling labor market keeps the Fed on hold. Good news for portfolios, more complicated for the real economy.

●      AI Earnings Divergence, Round Two: Following last week's "Split Decision," this week's results from Palantir, AMD, Broadcom and Microsoft reinforced the winners' side of the AI trade.

●      The Hormuz Whiplash: Oil swung more than 10% peak-to-trough this week as diplomacy and renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz traded places daily. Iran's Sunday demands leave the situation unresolved heading into next week.

●      Tariffs as Foreign Policy: Between the looming Canada tariff and the new Russia-sanctions tariff bill, trade policy is increasingly being used as a geopolitical lever, not just an economic one.

●      China vs. Hong Kong: A reminder that "Chinese stocks" aren't a single trade — mainland shares rallied over 3% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell, driven by different capital flows and sector mixes.

The Eleven: US Markets

SPLIT DECISION - Wall Street Picks Its AI Winners!

Episode 13, Week 31, July 25 - August 02, 2026

The Ceasefire Whiplash: A signed US-Iran memorandum, a lifted naval blockade, and a brief Hormuz reopening were followed within days by a fresh Iranian closure over continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The pattern from Episode 11, hope outrunning verification, has repeated almost exactly.

The Warsh Pivot: Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting flipped the dot plot from leaning toward cuts to nine of eighteen officials projecting a 2026 hike. Markets sold off sharply on the news before recovering most losses by Thursday.

Oil as the Swing Factor: Brent's roughly 8% weekly decline is the clearest sign yet that the energy shock could be easing but the weekend's renewed Strait closure shows that relief remains reversible at any moment.

AI Infrastructure Still Compounding: The Intel-Apple chip deal and the broader semiconductor rally show that the AI capex story continues to provide a structural floor under tech, independent of the macro and geopolitical noise dominating headlines.

Episode 12: The Strait that won't stay Open!: WEEK 25 | June 15–21, 2026Key Themes & Analysis : Week 25The Ceasefire Whiplash: A signed US-Iran memorandum, a lifted naval blockade, and a brief Hormuz reopening were followed within days by a fresh Iranian closure over continuedIsraeli strikes in Lebanon. The pattern from Episode 11; hope outrunning verification, has repeated almost exactly.

The Warsh Pivot: KevinWarsh's first FOMC meeting flipped the dot plot from leaning toward cuts to nine of eighteen officials projecting a 2026 hike. Markets sold off sharply on the news before recovering most losses by Thursday.

Oil as the Swing Factor: Brent's roughly 8% weekly decline is the clearest sign yet that the energy shock could be easing, but the weekend's renewed Strait closure shows that relief remainsreversible at any moment.

AI Infrastructure Still Compounding: The Intel-Apple chip deal and the broader semiconductor rally show that the AI capex story continues to provide a structural floor under tech, independent of the macro and geopolitical noise dominating headlines.

⚠️ THE ELEVEN: US Markets is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing discussed constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This episode was researched and produced with AI assistance; please independently verify all data before making investment decisions.

EPISODE 11 - MOONSHOTS, OIL DROPS & THE CEASEFIRE CLOCK!!

WEEK 24 | June 8-14, 2026

Key Takeaways -

• US stocks rebounded after last week's chip-led selloff. Friday closes: S&P 500 7,431; Dow 51,202; Nasdaq 25,889.

• SpaceX's historic IPO raised about $75 billion and closed roughly 19 percent above its offer price, showing risk appetite is still alive.
• May CPI hit 4.2 percent year over year, driven mainly by energy. Core CPI was calmer at 2.9 percent, making oil the key inflation variable.
• A reported US-Iran framework could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade, but Iranian hardliners and Israel-Hezbollah tensions keep the deal fragile.
• The FIFA World Cup is now a macro event too: tourism, media, sports betting, security, heat risk, and consumer spending all matter.
• The June 16-17 Fed meeting is the next major market test, with Kevin Warsh needing to balance hot inflation against hopes that oil pressure may fade.

THE ELEVEN: US Markets, Episode 10 - June 2 to June 6, 2026

🔑 Key Themes & Analysis

The AI Repricing: Broadcom beat earnings but held guidance flat, and the market took a trillion dollars off chips in two days. The AI trade isn’t over, but the ‘buy everything with silicon’ era is. Quality AI revenue generators will be rewarded. Narrative-driven names will be punished.

Jobs Beat = Rate Hike Risk: May payrolls at 172,000, more than double the 80,000 consensus. With inflation already at 3.8%, a strong jobs print complicates the Fed’s calculus and raises December rate hike odds to roughly 40%.

Warsh’s Opening Act: The new Fed Chair steps into his first FOMC meeting June 16-17 with inflation above target, a divided committee, and a market still processing a tech shock. His language at the press conference will set the tone for H2 2026.

SpaceX: Event of the Decade: A $75 billion raise at $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in history. Retail gets 30%. Starlink is the engine. The week of June 8 is a market catalyst regardless of broader conditions.

Iran -Still Unresolved: The ceasefire holds, but barely. Talks stalled on enrichment, missiles, and the Strait. Every week this drags is another week of elevated energy costs embedded in global inflation.

THE ELEVEN: US Markets - Episode 9 | Week 22 | 26-30 May2026 | 'DEAL OR NO DEAL'

 The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to nine consecutive weeks, closing May at a record 7,580 while the Dow Jones crossed 51,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq surged 8% in May alone, driven by one of the most consequential AI earnings weeks of 2026.

 This episode covers: Dell Technologies' record 33% single-daysurge on AI server revenue growth of 757% year-over-year and a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract. Micron Technology crossing $1 trillion in market cap, up tenfold in 12 months on AI memory chip demand. Snowflake's AI platform inflection point and Palantir's 10% rally on partnership validation.Robinhood's launch of Agentic Trading - AI models executing stock trades on retail investors' behalf. The tentative US-Iran 60-day ceasefire MOU and why Trump's final approval decision this weekend could move oil markets on Monday. Brentcrude's worst monthly performance since Covid, down 19% in May on peace hopes.New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh facing stagflation risk, Fed minutes showing rate-hike discussions, and the critical June 16-17 FOMC meeting. European GDP contraction forecasts, Asian AI export boom, and gold's persistent safe-haven strength above $4,500.

Key Themes - Week 22

The Peace Trade vs The Inflation Reality:  Markets are rallying on the prospect of an Iran deal that isn't yet signed. Brent fell19% in May. But oil infrastructure in the Gulf is damaged, mines need clearing, and tanker logistics need rebuilding. Even in a best-case peace scenario, energy prices normalise slowly , the inflation wound from three months of Hormuz closure doesn't heal overnight.

 AI Hardware Is No Longer Speculative:  Dell's 757% AI server revenue growth and Micron's trillion-dollar market cap are backed by real orders and sold-out supply chains. The AI buildout is the largest infrastructure expansion in history, per Nvidia's CEO. The risk is not whether the demand is real- it is. The risk is whether equity valuations have already priced in years of future growth.

 The Warsh Dilemma:  The new Fed chair wants lowerrates. Trump wants lower rates. But inflation is near 4% - double the Fed's target and the Fed's own meeting minutes show a majority of officials think rate hikes may be needed. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is the most consequential in years. Watch the dot plot.

 Agentic Finance Arrives:  Robinhood's launch of AI-poweredtrading and spending tools is a genuine structural shift, not just for Robinhood, but for the entire retail brokerage industry. The regulatory framework for AI-executed trades is still being written. The accountability gap your AI makes the trade, you own the loss is a risk most retail investors haven't fully thought through.

THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Episode 8 : "DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath" 

Key Themes -

1. THE DEAL THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING: Trump announced Saturday that a US-Iran peace deal is 'largely negotiated.' If signed and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, the Fed gets breathing room, and equities could rally hard. But key sticking points - Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions, and uranium, remain unresolved. Watch Monday morning.
2. THE BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING: The 30-year Treasury yield sat above 5% mid-week, a level last seen in 2007.Moody's just downgraded US debt. Congress just passed a bill adding $3.8 trillion to the deficit. The bond market is sending a clear fiscal warning that equities are choosing to ignore, for now.
3. NVIDIA IS THE AI ECONOMY: $81.6B in Q1 revenue, $91B guided for Q2. The AI infrastructure buildout is the most powerful structural force in markets. But investors must separate companies with real AI revenue from pure narrative plays. Nvidia itself proved this week that even perfection isn't enough to avoid a sell-the-news reaction.
4. EIGHT WEEKS UP- BUT NOT WITHOUT CRACKS: The S&P's 8-week winning streak is impressive but was tested by volatile sessions mid-week. Fear & Greed has flipped toGreed after weeks in Fear. That sentiment turnaround creates vulnerability-complacency is the enemy of portfolio protection.

THE ELEVEN: US Markets: Week 20, May 12-17, 2026

The Warsh Factor: A new Fed chair inheriting 3.8% inflationand an energy shock. Hawkish by instinct but open to cuts if inflation falls. With CPI this hot, that flexibility is theoretical. Watch his first public comments closely.

AI Boom vs. Energy Shock: The Cerebras IPO illustrates thebifurcation , AI infrastructure is real and growing fast. But the same economy faces energy-driven inflation that could force rate hikes. These forces are on a collision course.

The Stagflation Watch: Real wages now negative. Goldman,Moody's, and OECD all have recession/stagflation probabilities above 30%. The Fed is frozen between high inflation and slowing growth.

Trump-Xi: Deferred, Not Resolved: The hardest issues -tariffs, chips, Taiwan, kicked to September and beyond. Uncertainty premium stays in the market until then.

Episode 6 | Week 19 | May 4 – May 8, 2026 

The Teflon Market: Six straight weekly gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the longest streak since 2024, driven entirely by strong corporate earnings. The market is choosing profits over geopolitics, at least for now.

The Iran Halfway Point: Operation Epic Fury is officially concluded, a deal framework is emerging : 12-15 yearnuclear enrichment moratorium in exchange for sanctions relief and Hormuz reopening, but no signatures yet. Oil is down from $111 to $95, but the Strait is still partially blockaded.

The Fed Transition: Powell's era ends May 15th. Warsh is expected to be confirmed this week. His first FOMC meeting is June 17th. The market expects a more dovish stance.

The risk: cutting too early into still-elevated inflation repeats the errors of 2021–22.

CPI Tuesday: April CPI on May 12th is the single most important data point of the month. Above 3.2% = yields jump, tech sells off. Below 3.0% = risk-on rally, rate cut hopes revive.Watch core CPI especially, if services inflation is rising, it's not just an oil shock anymore.

Trump-Xi Summit: May 14-15 in Beijing. Iran will dominate. Boeing aircraft purchases and soybean commitments expected. A 'Board of Trade' managed framework is on the table.Don't expect a tariff breakthrough; but don't underestimate the oil diplomacy angle.

This week in THE ELEVEN: Markets just posted their sixth consecutive weekly gain, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,399 and theNasdaq surging 4.5% to 26,247. But record highs are only part of the story.Johan Durden and Tyla Didrikson unpack what's really driving this rally and what could derail it.

This week's eleven stories cover: the April jobs report beat (115K vs 55K forecast), AMD's revenue surprise, Datadog's 28% surge on AI cloud demand, Corning's Nvidia supply deal, a fresh low in US consumer confidence (48.2), the Federal Reserve's final meeting under Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh's imminent confirmation as the new Fed Chair, the Iran ceasefire progress and the emerging nuclear deal framework, oil pricesfalling from $111 to $95, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing (May 14-15), and why Tuesday's April CPI print could set the tone for the entire summer.

Whether you're managing a portfolio or just trying to understand what's moving markets this week, THE ELEVEN gives you real analysis in real time : No jargon, No padding, No agenda!

Episode 5 | Week 18 | April 28 – May 2, 2026 

This week Wall Street hit record highs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq both at all-time closes, even as oil spiked toward multi-year records and the Strait of Hormuz remained 90% shut.

The Engine: a blowout Magnificent Seven earnings week. Meta revenue +33%, Apple posted its best March quarter ever and a $100 billion buyback, AWS grew 28%, Alphabet's Search accelerated.

S&P earnings growth is now tracking at 27.8% for Q1 , the strongest since 2021. Johan and Tyla break it all down in eight tight minutes.

Plus: Jerome Powell's dramatic final Fed meeting, a rare 4-way FOMC dissent, Kevin Warsh's path to the chairmanship, the UAE's seismic OPEC exit, Iran's 14-point peace proposal, SpaceX's confirmed June IPO targeting $1.75T, and what OpenAI's revenue miss means for the AI investment thesis.

Looking ahead: May 8 jobs report, May 13 CPI, and the Hormuz deal that could change everything.

THE ELEVEN: US Markets - Eleven stories, Zero fluff!!