The Expert Podcast

 Current Changes in the Real Estate Market:

• Inventory is increasing, but interest rates have risen.
• The rapid price spike has leveled off, with home prices stabilizing.
• Home builders are significantly slowing down due to inflation and higher mortgage rates.
• Housing starts have dropped by 9.6% as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Impact of Inflation and Mortgage Rates on Builders:

• Home builders are cautious due to rising mortgage rates and inflation.
• Many builders recall the 2007-2008 housing crisis, where several went bankrupt, and the economy suffered.
• Builders are hesitant to take risks in this unstable market.

The Ongoing Housing Shortage:

• Before the slowdown, there was already a significant housing shortage.
• A shortage of 4 to 5 million homes is predicted to maintain balance in the current market.
• There are still many buyers who are unable to purchase homes due to price hikes or competitive bidding.

Projected Deficit in Housing by 2025:

• It is estimated that by 2025, there will be a 6 to 7 million home deficit in the United States.
• The housing market is not just dealing with a backlog, but also a growing demand as 1.2 million new people enter the market annually.
• Fewer homes are being built, compounding the problem.

The Impact of a Decline in Homebuilding:

• Homebuilding is expected to decrease by 10%, exacerbating the housing shortage.
• If the market continues at this pace, the deficit could reach even higher levels by 2025.
• The housing crisis in 2025 could be twice as severe as it is now.

What Does This Mean for You?

• For Buyers: If you're considering purchasing a property in 2025, be prepared for limited options.
• For Builders: Consider building homes that are affordable for end-users, despite rising costs.
• For Homeowners: If you’re planning to move, it may be a good time to consider building your own home rather than waiting for inventory to improve.

Looking Ahead to 2026:

• Keep in mind that housing trends from 2022 may have long-term effects.
• It’s important to plan your housing needs for the next four years, keeping in mind the economy and homebuilding trends.

Plan for your future housing needs based on real numbers, not just media opinions, and make informed decisions. 

Episode Show Notes:

• The Current Housing Market: A Possible Recession
  Experts suggest that the housing market may be in a recession, offering buyers a rare opportunity to get a good deal on real estate.
• Why It's Better to Buy Now
  Unlike previous years when bidding wars and high prices were the norm, buyers now have more options and better terms. In 2021 and 2020, buyers had limited choices and often had to settle for a house that wasn’t their dream home. Now, there are more properties available to choose from.
• More Options and Inventory
  In the past, buyers were limited to one or two homes and had to act quickly. Today, more inventory means buyers can take their time, consider multiple options, and avoid making rushed decisions.
• Contingencies and Inspections Are Back
  Buyers now have the option to include contingencies in their contracts, such as a mortgage contingency and the ability to conduct inspections. This helps avoid buyer's remorse, as many recent buyers have regretted not being able to inspect properties properly before purchasing.
• The Importance of Finding the Right Home
  Buying a home is a long-term commitment, and it’s essential to choose one that truly fits your needs. With more inventory available, buyers now have the chance to find a home that matches their preferences in terms of floor plans, neighborhoods, yards, and views.
• Stagnant Prices and Interest Rates
  While prices may not drop significantly, they are unlikely to increase much either. Interest rates are higher, but if they decrease in the future, buyers can refinance. It’s more important to focus on securing a home that fits your needs rather than stressing over interest rates.
• Long-Term Value of the Home Over Price
  The house itself is more important than the price because it’s something you’ll live in for many years. Unlike a budget that can be adjusted, you can’t easily change your home once you’ve purchased it, making it crucial to find one that truly fits.
• Opportunity for Buyers
  Experts suggest this might be a unique moment for buyers to enter the market. With more options available, buyers can find a home they love, avoid the stress of limited choices, and potentially lock in a good deal before prices start climbing again.

Episode Highlights:

• Current Market Overview:
  • Inventory is higher compared to a year ago, but prices remain steep.
  • Why are prices still high despite increasing inventory?
• Key Insight into Pricing:
  • Homeowners with 2-3% mortgage rates hesitate to sell, as they would need to secure a new 7% mortgage for a similar-priced home.
  • This results in sellers inflating prices to cover the higher interest rates they'd face post-sale.
• Strategies to Find Good Deals:
  1. Target Homes with Older Mortgages:
     • Look for homes with mortgages issued between 2010-2014.
     • These mortgages typically have higher interest rates (5-6%) compared to recent refinances.
  2. Utilize Land Records:
     • Check your state’s land records for details on mortgage issuance dates and interest rates.
  3. Cross-Reference Listings:
     • Match these homes with online listings on platforms like Zillow.
  4. Direct Outreach:
     • Send personalized postcards to homeowners with older mortgages, expressing interest in purchasing their property.
• Why This Works:
  • Sellers with older mortgages are less impacted by the current 7% rate, making them more open to negotiation.
  • They’ve likely built significant equity, reducing the need to pass on costs to buyers.
• Final Tip:
  • Be proactive and creative in your search to increase your chances of finding a reasonably priced home.

Engage with Us:

• Let us know your thoughts or share your success stories in the comments!
• Good luck with your home search!

Overview:

• This episode explores the current crisis in the housing market, examining why buying and selling homes might be more challenging than ever before.

Key Points:

• Why Sellers Are Hesitant:
  • Selling a house means giving up a low mortgage rate (often as low as 2-4%) that homeowners currently enjoy.
  • Homeowners with mortgages from 2012 to 2021 likely refinanced to secure these low rates.
  • Those with cash homes are in a strong position but may hesitate to sell due to the need for higher mortgages or more cash for upgrading.
• Challenges for Buyers:
  • Home prices remain high, influenced by the soaring market in 2020-2022.
  • Sellers may hold onto their properties unless they can secure a high price, often driven by low mortgage rates.
• The Discrepancy Between Purchase Price and Market Value:
  • Sellers may have mortgages at a low interest rate, meaning they are reluctant to sell unless they can secure a high price.
  • A significant gap exists between older mortgage payments and what buyers might face today with rising mortgage rates.
• The Impact of Property Taxes:
  • Property taxes are based on the original purchase price of the home, not current market value, creating a disparity between taxes for older homeowners and newer buyers.
  • Example: A homeowner bought their house in 2015 for $370K, with taxes of $2,800/year. The same house recently sold for $680K, with taxes now over $5,800/year, making it less appealing to sell.
• Conclusion:
  • Both buyers and sellers face significant financial challenges, which could contribute to a slowdown in the housing market.

Why This Matters:

• Understanding the dynamics of mortgage rates, property taxes, and market conditions helps clarify why the housing market may be stuck in a crisis.

Listen to this episode to gain insight into the current housing market crisis and what it means for buyers and sellers. 

Introduction to 401k as a Financial Asset

• A 401k fund is often one of the largest financial assets people have, second only to their primary residence.
• Many people have tens of thousands, sometimes even hundreds of thousands, or over a million dollars in their 401k, which can represent a large portion of their liquid assets.

401k vs. Primary Residence

• Your primary residence may have equity, but it's not easily accessible.
• Unlike real estate, a 401k offers ways to access funds, though there are certain rules and penalties to consider.

Withdrawal Methods and Penalties

• Withdrawing early from a 401k may incur penalties, but there are exceptions:
  • Medical Bills: You can withdraw from your 401k without penalty to pay for unreimbursed medical bills.
  • Disability: Withdrawals are penalty-free if you’re disabled and need funds for expenses.
  • Health Insurance: Penalty-free withdrawals may be allowed for paying health insurance.

Tax Implications on Withdrawals

• Even if no penalty is charged, you may still need to pay taxes on the withdrawal since you avoided taxes when you initially contributed.

Withdrawals for Death or Disability

• If the 401k holder passes away, beneficiaries can take withdrawals without penalty, but taxes will apply.

Other Exceptions to the 10% Penalty

• Back Taxes: You can use 401k funds to pay back taxes or settle a tax lien with the IRS, although taxes will still apply.
• First-Time Homebuyer: First-time homeowners can use their 401k funds for a down payment, though this may trigger a penalty unless it's an IRA.

Using 401k for Education or Investment

• Some college expenses may qualify for penalty-free withdrawals.
• If you’re an investor, normal disbursements may also allow you to access funds without penalty.

401k as a Wealth Creation Tool

• 401k is a valuable tool for wealth creation, just like real estate.
• It’s important to manage the funds wisely to avoid having to withdraw prematurely, as this can result in losing tax benefits, investment value, or incurring penalties.

In this episode, we dive into 5 excellent sources where you can find all kinds of discounted goods, merchandise, and even hidden discount codes for online purchases.

• American Merchandise Liquidators
  • Offers pallets and truckloads of returned and overstocked goods from major retailers like Home Depot, Target, and Lowe’s.
  • Categories include tools, equipment, general merchandise, toys, furniture, home improvement, and electronics.
  • Sign up for daily email updates on new listings, but keep in mind that local availability may affect the deal.
• GovDeals
  • Government agencies sell surplus items, including vehicles, equipment, and even fire trucks and aircraft.
  • Only verified government entities can list items.
  • Offers everything from all-terrain vehicles to office furniture and real estate.
• SlickDeals
  • A site that constantly updates deals found by users.
  • Offers a variety of goods from clothing to tools, electronics, and more.
  • Deals are curated based on social popularity and user submissions.
• Ecom
  • A wholesale deal site similar to American Merchandise Liquidators but organized by category and retailer (e.g., Amazon, eBay, Walmart).
  • Sign up for daily updates on new wholesale deals.
• DealNews
  • Focuses on retail consumer-oriented deals.
  • Offers deep discounts on items like clothing, electronics, and household goods.
  • Great for those willing to sift through listings to find exceptional deals.
• RetailMeNot (Bonus)
  • A source for discount and coupon codes from a wide variety of retailers, including Papa John’s, Nike, Vistaprint, and more.
  • Check before completing your order online to potentially save extra money with a promo code.

These sources will help you find better deals, save on purchases, and even get some exclusive discount codes. Let us know if you have other great deal sources to share in the comments! Keep an eye on our website for more individual deals. 

Show Notes / Description:

• Home prices: Will they rise or fall? Here’s one prediction from high-level finance experts: Home prices could fall by another 10% due to sustained high interest rates.
• Interest rates: Likely to remain high, hovering between 6-8%. Historically, these rates are typical for real estate transactions, with rates in the 80s reaching over 10%, and the 2000s seeing rates in the 3-5% range.
• Effect of interest rates on affordability: Even with a 10% decrease in home prices, the mortgage payment difference might only be a couple hundred bucks, not enough to dramatically change affordability.
• Housing affordability: If the price of a home drops from $480,000 to $440,000, your monthly mortgage payment would only decrease by around $300, which isn’t a huge relief for buyers. If this small difference makes or breaks your ability to buy, consider lowering your home purchase expectations.
• The impact of interest rate changes: A mortgage rate increase from 3% to 8% could add $1,000 to your monthly payment, far outweighing the minor savings from a 10% drop in home prices.
• Market predictions: While home prices might decrease by 10% over the year, this isn’t a housing market crash but rather a correction to more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers.
• The buyer-seller dynamic: In order for prices to drop, both the buyer and seller must agree. Sellers need to make concessions, but they won’t drastically lower prices unless absolutely necessary.
• Plan accordingly: Find a house within your budget that you can afford with current interest rates (8-9%) rather than waiting for a small decrease in prices.
• Renting vs. buying: Renting for another year might cost you more in the long run. For example, paying $2,500 a month in rent for a year totals $30,000, which could be more than the potential savings from a 10% drop in home prices. Consider buying now if you’re a renter, as waiting for price reductions could result in a break-even situation.

Stay informed and plan your real estate decisions carefully! 

Introduction:

• Imagine going on a long vacation with your car, but you can never stop for gas. You can only use the fuel you start with. This is similar to retirement—once you stop working, you're not receiving income, and your savings (like your gas tank) are all you have.

Retirement and Savings:

• In retirement, you may have a pension or social security, but these aren't usually high-income sources.
• Many rely on retirement funds like 401k, IRAs, or savings, but these aren’t the same as consistent income.
• If you're used to earning $100,000 a year, once you retire, you need to rely on savings, and they can run out quickly.

How Long Will Your Savings Last?

• For example, if you have $2 million saved and take out $100,000 each year, it would only last 20 years.
• At age 60, you’d run out of money by 80. At age 70, you’d run out by 90.
• This doesn’t account for inflation or unexpected expenses like healthcare.

The Importance of Income in Retirement:

• The key isn’t just having savings, it’s having income. Without a steady income stream, your savings will eventually dwindle.
• Options for creating income without a job include:
  • Real Estate: Rent properties for passive income, though it has risks and involves ongoing management.
  • Dividend Stocks or Bonds: These offer low returns, usually 2-3%.
  • Business Ventures: Starting a small business can provide a steady income, but it requires effort and time to set up.

Starting Early and Diversifying:

• Starting a business or creating an income stream early (in your 40s or 50s) gives you time to build it up and adjust as needed.
• Some people use side hustles, like making and selling craft projects, to generate an extra $2-3K a month, and they can keep this up into their 70s or 80s.

What If You Have Little Savings?

• If your savings are limited (e.g., $200,000), no matter how much income you generate, it won’t last long.
• For instance, if you withdraw $50,000 a year from $200,000 in savings, it will only last 4 years.

The Takeaway:

• The real challenge is creating an income stream. Whether it’s a small business, a side hustle, or investments, having some income to supplement your savings makes all the difference in retirement.
• Think of it like filling up your gas tank every month rather than draining it entirely—you’ll last longer and live more comfortably.

Conclusion:

• Don’t wait until retirement to start thinking about income. Set yourself up early, do the math, and take steps to ensure you have an income source for a secure and worry-free retirement.

 What is Social Inflation?

• Social inflation refers to the rising expectations that people have for services, products, and compensation. Unlike hard asset inflation (e.g., rising gas or food prices), social inflation is more about how people expect more than they did in the past.

Examples of Social Inflation:

• Restaurants: Increased expectations for better service.
• Insurance Claims: Higher compensation demands, such as wanting a car to be replaced, not just repaired, and compensation for lost work due to the car being out of service.

Social Inflation in Medical Malpractice:

• Social inflation is also influencing medical malpractice claims, with individuals seeking more compensation than before, such as for lost wages or emotional distress, in addition to covering their medical needs.

Rising Expectations in Customer Service:

• We now expect faster delivery times and better customer service than ever before, with consumers demanding more results from products and services.

Impact on Businesses and Prices:

• Businesses may need to increase costs to meet higher expectations. For example, to meet demands for faster shipping, companies may offer overnight shipping, which raises prices for consumers.
• Medical service providers may have to allocate more resources to cover the costs of increased medical malpractice claims, which could affect the quality of care or increase overall costs.

The Spiral of Social Inflation:

• As companies raise prices to meet demands, they may also reduce their workforce or increase automation to cover the higher costs, potentially leading to a reduction in service quality or availability of jobs.

Consequences of Social Inflation:

• While higher demands may lead to improved services or quicker delivery, there are potential downsides, including increased prices and a shift in the labor force dynamics.

Your Thoughts on Social Inflation:

• Where do you notice social inflation in your life, whether as a consumer, a business owner, or a member of society? Are you seeing more demands for better service, faster answers, or increased compensation? What are the consequences of these higher expectations?

Discover the transformative role of mediation in resolving disputes across various scenarios. Whether it’s a legal battle, a personal conflict, or a corporate dispute, mediation offers a faster, more private, and often less expensive solution compared to traditional court proceedings.

Key Highlights:

• What is Mediation?
  • A neutral third-party process to resolve disputes, often suggested or required by courts, attorneys, or counselors.
  • Applicable in lawsuits, divorces, corporate conflicts, and more.
• Real-Life Examples:
  • High-Profile Cases:
    • Mediation resolved a dispute between two news anchors over termination settlements, with one party securing a larger settlement.
  • Smaller Cases:
    • A lawsuit involving a library mandated mediation, benefiting clients and resolving the issue faster.
• Advantages of Mediation:
  • Cost-Effective: Saves on legal and court fees.
  • Confidential: Keeps discussions private, unlike public court records.
  • Time-Saving: Resolves conflicts faster than court trials.
  • Flexible: Parties retain control and can walk away if unsatisfied.
• Confidentiality and Exceptions:
  • Unlike court cases, mediation discussions remain private unless involving crimes or threats.
• Neutrality and Fairness:
  • Mediators provide unbiased solutions by focusing on common ground and eliminating personal conflicts.
• Empowerment and Control:
  • Individuals can express their concerns and have the final say in agreements.
  • Mediation doesn’t eliminate the option to proceed to court if unresolved.
• Impact on Courts and Parties:
  • Helps declog the court system and provides a quicker resolution for all parties.

Final Takeaway:

Mediation offers a balanced, empowering, and efficient way to resolve disputes while keeping costs low and maintaining privacy. Whether it’s a personal or professional conflict, it’s a process that benefits everyone involved, including the courts.

Tune in to learn how mediation can be the key to resolving your next dispute.