Dr. Morse discusses New York Giants' WR Sterling Shepard, including his injury-filled 2017 season. He tells you why Shepard is a nice WR3/flex play with WR2 upside. He goes into depth about Shepard's injuries, including ankle and migraines. He also answers some burning questions and many more including reviewing the injury in detail, providing professional insight, provides a 'Health Outlook' for 2018, assess Shepard's risk of reinjury and offers up his recommendations for drafting Shepard.
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Injury Review Article: https://www.thefantasydoctors.com/fantasy/nfl-injury-guide-sterling-shepard/
Video: https://youtu.be/PezCrpvFliI
PODCAST NOTES:
2016 Stats: 16 games, 65 rec for 683 yds, 8 TD.
2017 Stats: 11 games, 59 rec for 731 yds, 2 TD.
2018 Projections: 62 rec for 733 yds, 4 TD.
Projected 2018 Fantasy Rank (FantasyPros): WR44
Injury:
- Going into the season, Shepard stated before the 2017 season that he wanted to get more Yards After Catch (YAC) than the previous year after studying film. Remember that Shepard was 2nd on the team in 2016 with 105 targets, but only average 10.5 YAC, attributing to only 683 yards to go along with his 8 TDs.
- This is a team that went 3-13, THEY WERE AWFUL.
- In early preseason Shepard was carted off the practice field after rolling his ankle. It sounds like Shepard suffered a ‘low’ ankle sprain, MRI confirmed. This really helped his psyche because he only took about 2 weeks to return, even managing to play in the Giants’ 3rd preseason game.
- Shepard had a couple of down weeks in weeks 1 & 2, but then exploded for 7 catches for 133 yards and a TD in week 3 vs. the Eagles.
- In Week 5, vs. the Chargers, with Brandon Marshall already done for the day (and eventually the season), Shepard reinjured the same ankle he sprained in preseason. The Giants training staff fit him for an aircast but he couldn’t get loose. After an MRI, a couple days later Shepard was spotted wearing a walking boot, and he missed week 6 and 7. The Giants did the smart thing and allowed Shepard to fully heal through their week 8 bye and not rush him back.
- Likely fully healed as it was almost a full month before playing in games, Shepard returned in week 9 to catch 5 of 9 targets.
- Week 10 Shepard had another monster game, catching 11 of 13 targets for 142 yards displayed his talent, and is one of the reasons why I think he will be a top 30 WR this year.
- Then, it was reported that Shepard was dealing with migraines which caused him to miss weeks 11 & 12. Now migraines are no joke. You can appreciate how significant they are if you’ve ever had one. Think of a headache times 10. Typically migraines can last anywhere from less than a day up to 3 days. That sounds awful. Think of pounding, throbbing pain on the side of your head. Sensitivity to light, sound, smell. Being nauseated, vomiting, blurred vision, feeling lightheaded. Ya – that’s a classic migraine. These can be trigged by hormones, certain foods or additives, alcohol, stress, changes in sleep patterns. So many things. The good news is that we have pretty good medicines for migraines, whether it is simple Excedrin, oxygen, or strong medicines like sumatriptan, or an anti-depressant type-med that can prevent these attacks.
- Then upon his return in week 13, Shepard managed to injure his hamstring. He managed to play in week 14 but he wasn’t very effective, only catching 2 passes for 16 yards.
- Shepard was very feast-or-famine in 2017. Exemplified by his weeks 14 and 15. Week 14 was a dud. Week 15 he went ham again, catching 11 passes for 139 yards and a TD, again against the Eagles.
- Then he suffered a neck injury in week 16, which caused him to miss week 17.
- So let’s recap Shepard injured his ankle in the preseason, and then reinjured it in week 5, causing him to miss 2.5 games. Then he missed 2 games with migraines. Then he injured his hamstring. Finally to cap off the season he missed 2 games with a neck injury. WOW. That’s a lot of different injuries in a couple few months.
Questions
Sterling Shepard is expected to be the #2 WR for the Giants this year behind Odell Beckham Jr., are you concerned about his injury risk after all the injuries he suffered in 2017? Kinda. I think many of those were fluke, but he definitely is at an increased risk for injury IMO.
2018 Health Outlook:
- Shepard was banged up a lot in 2017. Starting with the preseason. So whoever says that preseason injuries don’t matter, isn’t watching the NFL. Of course they matter, and they have a tendency to rear their ugly head again in the regular season. Just look at Sterling Shepard here and the Titans Corey Davis with his hamstring injury.
- I think that most of the injuries in 2017 were fluky, but I’m definitely concerned about his ankle. As I described in the Fournette episode, these never completely heal and this will place him at an increased future risk for reinjury. The migraines also scare me a little bit, but hopefully the Giants medical staff and neurologist have managed to get these under control.
Risk of Re-Injury: Overall about 30%, mostly because of the ankle.
Recommendations:
- Personally I’m really high on Shepard this year. I think Eli and Giants are due for some positive regression. Remember that Eli basically lost all of his WRs last year for most of the year, between OBJ, BMarshall, Shepard and Taveres King (concussion), so it was the RBs and Evan Engram. This year hopefully everyone is healthy and you have a beast at RB in Barkley that will keep the opposing defenses honest.
- Currently Shepard is being drafted as the 44th WR with the 114th pick. I think this has the potential to be a steal for him. That puts him in the same region as Nelson Agholor, who I also like, and rookie WRs Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore who I will be avoiding as most rookie WRs don’t do well their first year.
- Shepard could easily finish the season as the Giants #1 WR, in light of how down I am on OBJ. He’s primed for a big year, as long as he can stay on the field. I’m drafting him as a WR3/flex.
