In this wide-ranging and insightful conversation, Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, joins Michael LeBlanc to close out Season One of The FEED powered by Loblaw with a clear assessment of where Canada’s economy truly stands—and where it is headed.
Tal opens by reframing the post-pandemic narrative. While Canada avoided a formal recession, he characterizes the economy as “resilient, not strong.” Growth has been uneven, investment remains negative, housing markets in Ontario and British Columbia are in recessionary territory, and recent GDP strength was driven more by falling imports than genuine momentum. Consumers and exports are holding up—for now—but the foundation is fragile.
One of Tal’s strongest warnings centers on youth unemployment, now hovering around 15%. Drawing parallels to the 1990s jobless recovery, he explains that entering the labour market during a downturn can permanently damage earnings and career trajectories. This, he argues, is one of the most underappreciated risks facing Canada today and should be a priority for policymakers.
The conversation then turns to global forces shaping food inflation and affordability. Tal is blunt: U.S. political volatility—particularly trade policy and tariffs—remains the single biggest external risk. While tariffs are unlikely to disappear, Tal believes political realities will force compromise, leading to narrower, sector-specific impacts. Industries such as lumber, steel, aluminum, and energy face real exposure, while Canada’s auto sector may structurally shrink over time.
On immigration, Tal offers a nuanced and data-driven perspective. He acknowledges Canada overcorrected in 2023 but explains why the current shift toward converting non-permanent residents already in Canada into permanent residents could improve productivity outcomes. These newcomers tend to be younger, unattached, and already integrated into the workforce—delivering a stronger economic multiplier.
AI emerges as a defining structural force. Tal argues that with margins under pressure from deglobalization, labour shortages, and sustainability costs, AI is no longer optional.
The episode closes on cautious optimism. Tal believes stable interest rates, infrastructure spending, and diminishing policy uncertainty could make 2026 a transitional year—weak in the first half, stronger in the second—setting the stage for a much better 2027, provided geopolitical shocks do not derail progress.
About Your Host, Michael LeBlanc
Michael LeBlanc is the president and founder of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc, a senior retail advisor, keynote speaker and now, media entrepreneur. He has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career.
Michael has delivered keynotes, hosted fire-side discussions and participated worldwide in thought leadership panels. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience with Levi's, Black & Decker, Hudson's Bay, CanWest Media, Pandora Jewellery, The Shopping Channel and Retail Council of Canada to his advisory, speaking and media practice.
Michael produces and hosts a network of leading retail trade podcasts, including the award-winning No.1 independent retail industry podcast in America, Remarkable Retail with his partner, Dallas-based best-selling author Steve Dennis; Canada's top retail industry podcast The Voice of Retail and Canada's top food industry and one of the top Canadian-produced management independent podcasts in the country, The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois from Dalhousie University in Halifax.
Rethink Retail has recognized Michael as one of the top global retail experts for the fifth year in a row, the National Retail Federation has designated Michael as on their Top Retail Voices for 2025 and 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him on of the Top 50 global thought leaders in retail. If you are a BBQ fan, you can tune into Michael’s cooking show, Last Request BBQ, on YouTube, Instagram, X and yes, TikTok.
Michael is available for keynote presentations helping retailers, brands and retail industry insiders explaining the current state and future of the retail industry in North America and around the world.