Show Notes — Thu, Oct 16, 2025

FX

• USD mixed/softer as Fed signals rising job-market risks and a nearing end to balance-sheet runoff; data flow still disrupted by shutdown.
• EUR holds above 1.16 on improved French political backdrop and firmer industrial prints.
• GBP firmer above 1.34; Chancellor Reeves flags higher taxes on wealthier households; BoE notes softer labour market.
• JPY briefly bid after BoJ’s Tamura urged moving rates toward neutral; haven tone faded as USD flows stabilized.
• AUD pressured by weaker jobs (higher unemployment), partly offset by RBA comments that conditions have eased; NZD steadier alongside a stronger PBoC CNY fix.

Commodities

• Gold extends record run above $4,200/oz on softer USD and easing expectations.
• Oil rangebound; geopolitical noise (Ukraine strike on Russian refinery; reports of Indian refiners preparing to trim Russian imports) offset by surprise U.S. builds in crude and gasoline and cautious demand guidance.
• Base metals subdued to rangebound; China CPI/PPI still soft keeps demand questions open.

Tariffs & Trade

• President Trump: U.S. is “in a trade war with China”; tariffs framed as national-security tool; 100% tariffs remain on the table.
• China MOFCOM: rare-earth curbs are not a ban; civilian-use licenses to be approved; earlier introduced special port fees for U.S. ships.
• South Korea signals optimism on a U.S. tariff accommodation alongside a large U.S. investment pledge.
• Mexico in talks with U.S. to discount tariffs on heavy-truck parts.
• U.S. officials say no broad evidence of appliance tariff evasion after Whirlpool complaint.

Geopolitics

• Middle East: Fragile Gaza ceasefire; Israel orders plans in case fighting resumes; Hamas says all recoverable hostages/remains transferred; U.S. describes improving aid flows and early work on a stabilization force.
• Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv signals desire to press offensive; talk of potential settlement space persists; energy infrastructure again targeted.
• Venezuela: Caracas condemns Trump’s confirmation of CIA operations, calling it a violation of international law.

Notable Policy/Headline Signals

• Fed Beige Book: activity little changed; labour demand muted; retail goods spending edged down.
• BoJ’s Tamura: push rates toward neutral to avoid sharper hikes later.
• U.K. budget signalling: higher taxes on the wealthy “part of the story.”

What to Watch Next

• USD path as Fed speakers (Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman, Kashkari) frame the easing outlook.
• Follow-through in gold at new highs and whether oil breaks its range on fresh supply/demand shocks.
• Any concrete U.S.–China tariff steps (scope, timelines, sector carve-outs) and China’s licensing cadence on rare earths.
• U.K. budget details and French no-confidence dynamics for EUR sentiment.

Show Notes — October 16, 2025

Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, and geopolitics (no equities, fixed income, or crypto).

Today’s Briefing (summary)

• Dollar softer on cautious Fed tone; euro steadier, sterling firmer; yen supported by BoJ hawkish hints before easing back.
• Gold holds above record territory; oil capped by U.S. stock builds despite supply-risk headlines; copper subdued.
• Washington–Beijing trade rhetoric heats up again; selective signs of pragmatism from USTR; ancillary talks with South Korea and Mexico progress.
• Middle East ceasefire remains fragile; stabilization planning advances; Ukraine war headlines keep energy/grain routes in focus.

FX

• USD (DXY): Pressured after Fed commentary highlighted rising risks to jobs and the endgame for balance-sheet runoff, keeping further easing in play.
• EUR: Gradual grind higher above 1.16, helped by calmer French political optics and Eurozone industrial production resilience.
• GBP: Back above 1.34 as the Chancellor signals higher taxes for the wealthy in the upcoming budget, while BoE notes a softening labor market.
• JPY: Brief haven bid and a nudge from BoJ’s Tamura (arguing rates should move closer to neutral) before retracing on broader dollar flows.
• AUD/NZD: Mixed; AUD softer after weaker jobs data (higher unemployment), NZD steadier alongside a firmer yuan fix from the PBoC.

Commodities

• Gold: Holds above USD 4,200/oz on softer USD and expectations of additional Fed easing.
• Crude: Early lift faded after private data showed larger-than-expected U.S. crude and gasoline builds; Saudi Aramco warns of future shortages without investment; reports that India may gradually trim Russian oil imports add to flow uncertainty.
• Copper: Rangebound-to-soft as U.S.–China tension and weak Chinese CPI/PPI temper risk appetite.

Trade & Tariffs

• U.S.–China: President Trump characterizes tariffs as a national-security tool and says the U.S. is “in a trade war”; USTR hints Chinese export curbs may not be implemented but keeps tariff timing open.
• South Korea: Signals optimism on landing a tariff understanding with the U.S.; large U.S. investment pledge referenced in talks.
• Mexico: Negotiating discounted tariffs on heavy truck parts with the U.S.
• Appliance probe: U.S. officials report no evidence of widespread undervaluation/tariff evasion in recent corporate allegations.
• Shutdown overhang: Senate set to leave town without a deal; continued data delays and macro drag are in focus.

Geopolitics

• Middle East: Ceasefire framework persists but is fragile. Israel orders plans ready if fighting resumes; Hamas says it has transferred all recoverable hostages/remains so far; U.S. says aid coordination improving and a multinational stabilization force is forming.
• Russia–Ukraine: U.S. comments float potential settlement space while Kyiv signals offensive ambitions; markets watching for implications to energy/grain corridors.
• Venezuela: U.S. confirms authorizing CIA operations; Caracas condemns as a breach of international law—adds a regional flashpoint.

What to Watch Next

• Data & Fed/ECB/BoE speak: UK monthly GDP/output, Eurozone trade balance, Philly Fed, and a heavy slate of central-bank remarks amid U.S. shutdown-thinned releases.
• USD path: Whether cautious Fed tones keep the dollar offered into delayed inflation prints.
• Oil & gold: Follow-through after U.S. inventory surprises; sensitivity to ceasefire headlines and investment rhetoric.
• Tariff tape: Any concrete U.S.–China enforcement steps vs. renewed talks—and progress on Korea/Mexico tracks.

Show Notes — October 15, 2025

Focus: FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

FX

• The USD weakened for a second session, weighed by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who cited rising downside risks to jobs and hinted that balance-sheet runoff may be nearing its end.
• The EUR remains firm above 1.16, supported by political stability in France after PM Lecornu suspended pension reform and the Socialist Party confirmed it will not support a no-confidence motion.
• The JPY extended gains as safe-haven demand persisted amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions; USD/JPY briefly dipped below 151.
• The GBP stabilized after Tuesday’s dip, with BoE’s Bailey saying labour data confirms a softening jobs market, while Chancellor Reeves noted plans for possible tax rises and spending cuts in the upcoming budget.
• AUD and NZD strengthened modestly, helped by a stronger yuan fixing from the PBoC and hawkish remarks from RBA Assistant Governor Hunter, who said Q3 inflation may come in higher than expected.

Commodities

• Gold extended its record-breaking rally, surpassing USD 4,200/oz, driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and ongoing trade frictions.
• Oil remained rangebound, with WTI trading below USD 59/bbl and Brent under USD 62.50/bbl, as traders balanced global trade tensions with the delayed U.S. inventory data.
• Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said current oil prices reflect an equilibrium in the global energy market and confirmed that Russia could increase output if needed, while global oil demand continues to rise.
• Base metals traded mixed; copper briefly touched USD 10.75k/t before easing as traders digested Fed commentary and a weaker dollar.

Tariffs & Trade

• China’s Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to return to dialogue and cooperation, saying both sides should “engage in talks.”
• Beijing filed a WTO complaint against India over electric-vehicle and battery subsidies, arguing the policy discriminates against Chinese producers and threatens domestic industry.
• ASML’s CFO said the company is well-prepared for rare-earth export controls and that customer uncertainty around tariffs has eased since July, although steel and aluminium tariffs are still impacting costs slightly.
• USTR’s Greer reiterated that recent discussions with China on rare-earth measures have been constructive but warned that 100% tariffs could still be imposed depending on China’s next actions.

Europe & Central Banks

• ECB’s Villeroy reaffirmed that the next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut, and that the impact of U.S. tariffs on Eurozone inflation should remain limited.
• ECB’s de Guindos, Lane, and Lagarde are all due to speak later in the day, with markets watching for further guidance on timing and magnitude of any future easing.
• In the UK, Chancellor Reeves said both tax rises and spending cuts are under consideration for the November budget, aiming to restore fiscal discipline.
• In France, Socialist leader Olivier Faure confirmed support for the government’s fiscal plan, saying the proposed “Zucman tax” on wealthy property holdings will be reintroduced.

Geopolitics

• Middle East:
  • Israeli officials said the Rafah crossing will remain closed for logistical reasons as investigations continue into one of the four bodies returned during the latest hostage handover.
  • Markets viewed the developments as signs of fragile but sustained de-escalation, trimming crude’s geopolitical risk premium.
• Russia & Energy:
  • Novak confirmed Russia’s gas exports account for 19% of European imports and that Moscow remains open to further discussions on supply with Europe.
• Asia-Pacific:
  • Japan’s Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on a date for the next prime ministerial vote after the collapse of the ruling coalition.
  • RBA and RBNZ officials reiterated their data-dependent stance, with both central banks suggesting policy tightening cycles are complete for now.

Key Data & Developments

• Eurozone Industrial Production (Aug) beat expectations at +1.1% Y/Y versus -0.2% expected, easing concerns about regional manufacturing slowdown.
• China CPI (Sep) fell 0.3% Y/Y, remaining in deflationary territory; PPI also declined 2.3% Y/Y, underscoring weak domestic demand.

Outlook

• Watch for the Fed Beige Book, which may reveal early evidence of slowing U.S. labour-market momentum and business sentiment.
• ECB speakers and BoE’s Breeden may refine the tone around the next policy steps in Europe.
• U.S.–China trade rhetoric remains the key macro swing factor for FX and commodities in the near term.
• Gold and oil are likely to remain sensitive to Fed easing expectations and geopolitical headlines, particularly around the Middle East.

Show Notes — October 15, 2025

Focus: FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

FX

• USD softened after Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to jobs had increased, noting those risks justified September’s rate cut and that balance-sheet runoff may soon end.
• EUR/USD steady near 1.16 as French political uncertainty eased when the Socialist Party confirmed it will not back a no-confidence vote after pension reform was suspended.
• GBP recovered from Tuesday’s jobs-driven losses after BoE’s Bailey reiterated that labour-market data support his view of cooling employment.
• JPY strengthened amid safe-haven demand, with USD/JPY testing the 151.00 level as the dollar lost momentum.
• AUD/NZD firmer on better risk tone and CNH support; RBA officials highlighted upside inflation risks in Q3, keeping policy data-dependent.
• MAS held policy settings unchanged, forecasting core inflation to trough soon before rising through 2026.

Commodities

• Oil prices traded subdued after the IEA cut its 2025 global demand forecast to +710k bpd and flagged a possible 4mln bpd surplus next year as supply rises against weak consumption.
• Gold extended record highs, driven by expectations of Fed easing and U.S.–China trade friction.
• Copper stayed rangebound following prior declines, weighed by mixed global trade signals and a firmer USD earlier in the week.

Tariffs & Trade

• U.S.–China relations remained tense: President Trump said he’s considering ending trade in cooking oil with China, citing failure to buy U.S. soybeans.
• USTR noted six months of constructive dialogue but described China’s rare-earth export measures as disproportionate, warning that the planned 100% tariffs could take effect earlier if progress stalls.
• China’s MOFCOM responded that its rare-earth controls are licensing, not a ban, and accused Washington of intimidation while imposing special port fees on U.S.-linked ships and launching a probe into Section 301 tariffs’ impact on Chinese shipping.

Europe & Policy Signals

• ECB’s Villeroy said the next policy move is more likely a rate cut than a hike and that U.S. tariffs will have negligible effects on Eurozone inflation.
• ECB’s Makhlouf described inflation as near target levels.
• UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reviewing ISA reforms and a mix of tax rises and spending cuts ahead of the November Budget to bolster fiscal headroom.

Geopolitics

• Middle East:
  • U.S. President Trump declared “phase two” in the Israel–Hamas peace process and reaffirmed that “the job is not done,” while Israel confirmed sporadic breaches of the ceasefire line in Gaza.
  • The rhetoric helped unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.
• Russia–Ukraine:
  • President Zelensky will visit Washington on Friday to discuss air defence support and potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles.
  • EU Commission confirmed new funding for a special tribunal to prosecute Russian aggression.
• Other Regions:
  • The U.S. struck a narcotrafficking vessel linked to a designated terrorist organisation near Venezuela.
  • Japan’s political impasse persisted after its parliamentary committee failed to set a date for the next leadership vote.

What to Watch Next

• Upcoming Fed commentary (Powell, Waller, Bostic) for clarity on the easing path.
• Eurozone Industrial Production and German fiscal developments for near-term EUR sentiment.
• China’s trade retaliation follow-through and potential U.S. tariff timing.
• IEA/OPEC updates for confirmation of oil surplus expectations.
• Zelensky–Trump meeting on October 17 for any geopolitical or energy-market implications.

Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

• FX:
  • USD steadied after an early dip as risk appetite faded.
  • JPY caught a haven bid on renewed U.S.–China tensions before retracing part of the move.
  • GBP softened after a U.K. labor print showed a higher unemployment rate and easing ex-bonus pay.
  • EUR slipped as focus stayed on French budget politics and softer German ZEW readings.
  • AUD/NZD underperformed alongside risk sentiment; RBA minutes signaled no immediate cut, data-dependent stance.
  • MAS left the SGD NEER settings unchanged, saying core inflation should trough near term then rise gradually through 2026.
  • A PBoC-backed outlet reiterated a greater market role in FX with guided expectations.
• Commodities:
  • Oil fell as Middle East tension eased and after the IEA trimmed its 2025 demand growth forecast; Saudi Aramco said demand is resilient and it can sustain 12mbpd capacity for up to a year without extra capex.
  • Gold and silver printed fresh highs in Asia before easing as the dollar firmed; copper slipped back toward the $10.5k/t area on stronger USD and trade worries.
• Tariffs & Trade:
  • China implemented special port fees on U.S.-related vessels and opened a probe into the impact of U.S. Section 301 tariffs on shipping.
  • MOFCOM said rare-earth curbs are license-based, not a blanket ban, but announced countermeasures against five U.S.-linked firms and warned Washington cannot seek talks while threatening new restrictions.
  • Oversight was tightened on export licenses for rare-earth magnets.
• Geopolitics:
  • Gaza: Israeli government advanced the plan while reporting incidents along agreed lines; U.S. messaging pointed to a broader regional peace push, trimming near-term energy risk premium.
  • France: Government to present a budget targeting a deficit of 4.7% by end-2026; the fiscal watchdog flagged optimistic assumptions as no-confidence maneuvering continues.
  • Ukraine: Kyiv reported new strikes on energy assets; President Zelensky to meet President Trump to discuss air defense and potential long-range munitions; EU funding moves for a special tribunal progressed.
• What to watch next:
  • Tone and follow-through on U.S.–China measures (port fees, firm-level countermeasures, license scrutiny).
  • Fed speakers for any dollar-relevant nuance.
  • Any fresh Middle East headlines that could shift energy risk premium.

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (14 Oct 2025) 

Overview: A current market and news briefing focused on FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics. Risk tone wobbles after Beijing signals fresh countermeasures while Washington’s weekend rhetoric softens. Gold holds record highs; oil steadies.

FX:

• USD eases slightly; EUR edges higher, GBP range-bound.
• JPY firms on softer risk appetite and renewed official focus on orderly moves.
• AUD/NZD lag as RBA minutes keep a cautious, data-dependent stance; MAS leaves SGD policy unchanged.
• Fed’s Paulson backs a gradual, data-led easing path through this year and next.

Commodities:

• Gold extends record run above $4,150/oz on lingering headline risk.
• Crude steady; OPEC keeps 2025–26 demand growth unchanged; Aramco reiterates demand resilience and states 12mb/d max capacity can be sustained for up to a year.
• Base metals cool from Monday’s pop; China demand/supply headlines remain the swing factor.

Trade & Tariffs:

• China’s MOFCOM says the U.S. can’t seek talks while threatening new curbs; announces countermeasures against five U.S.-linked firms.
• Beijing implements special port fees on U.S. vessels; launches a probe into the impact of U.S. Section 301 tariffs on shipping.
• China reiterates rare-earth curbs are license-based (not a blanket ban), keeping strategic-materials risk elevated.

Geopolitics:

• Gaza framework moves into implementation phases; sequencing and enforcement remain the near-term swing risks for energy sentiment.
• France to present a budget targeting a deficit cut to 4.7% by end-2026—fiscal backdrop in focus for the euro.
• Ukraine reports further strikes on energy assets; Kyiv to press allies on air defense and long-range munitions.

What to watch:

• UK labor data; Germany ZEW.
• IEA Oil Market Report.
• Fed/ECB/BoE speakers and U.S. discount-rate minutes.
• Any incremental U.S.–China steps on export controls, port fees, or firm-specific measures.

Show notes — FX, commodities, trade & geopolitics

FX

• USD steadies after Friday’s wobble; support from softer EUR and ebbing haven demand.
• JPY weaker after holiday-gap swings; Japan’s MoF reiterates vigilance against disorderly FX moves.
• EUR constrained as ECB’s Vujčić signals comfort with current stance; French politics still a background drag.
• GBP slightly softer amid UK budget/tax-raid chatter.
• AUD/NZD firmer on risk rebound and stronger base metals; BLS preparing to release Sep CPI despite shutdown—key for near-term USD path.

Commodities

• Oil rebounds as weekend rhetoric softens; market awaits OPEC MOMR for fresh balance cues.
• Iraq’s SOMO sets Nov Basrah OSPs: small Asia premia vs Oman/Dubai; discounts vs Brent to Europe.
• Gold near record highs after Asian session pop; silver supported by shrinking freely available stocks in London.
• Copper firmer on improved risk tone and China trade resilience.

Tariffs & trade

• US President tempers tone after 100%-tariff threat; says US wants to “help” China, but threat not withdrawn.
• China defends Oct 9 rare-earth export controls as license-based, not a blanket ban; imposes special port fees on US-related vessels in response to US measures.
• USTR: outreach to Beijing after export-control move; reports “progress” with Cambodia.
• Canada drafting industrial strategy to diversify markets and favor domestic procurement amid US tariffs.
• Switzerland–China to accelerate FTA upgrade talks; Indian delegation in US this week, signaling more US energy buys.

Geopolitics

• Gaza: Cairo summit today to formalize plan; Israel says framework approved and hostage releases to begin; Hamas says deal includes withdrawal and prisoner swap.
• Iran rules out joining Abraham Accords; says message exchanges with US continue.
• Ukraine: strikes hit energy infrastructure; Kyiv claims drone strike on Russia’s Bashneft refinery; US weighing options, Zelensky pushes air-defense support.
• Pakistan–Afghanistan border clashes prompt mediation;
• South China Sea: Philippines–China vessel collision dispute near Sandy Cay;
• DPRK deepens coordination with Russia; pledges tighter ties with China.

Policy/other market-relevant headlines

• BLS preparing Sep CPI release despite shutdown (timing TBC).
• US Fed extends Fedwire/NSS operating days to Sundays/holidays (payments plumbing).
• Netherlands tightens oversight of Nexperia on governance concerns.
• US FCC: e-commerce platforms removing prohibited Chinese electronics.

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Fri, 10 Oct 2025, US Open)

Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto

FX

• USD: Eases after four-day climb; focus pivots to September CPI (BLS preparing release despite shutdown).
• JPY: Volatile—MoF flags “one-sided, rapid” FX moves; Komeito signals exit from 26-year coalition with LDP, briefly strengthening JPY before two-way swings.
• EUR: Sub-1.16, steady with French PM decision pending.
• GBP: Stabilizes near 1.33 after recent softness.
• AUD/NZD: Antipodeans firmer on stronger CNY fix, but NZD still heavy post-RBNZ -50 bp and open door to more cuts.

Commodities

• Oil: Softer; Gaza ceasefire headlines trim risk premium; chatter of Saudi flows to China lower in Nov vs Oct.
• Gold: Marginally higher after dip below $4,000/oz; haven interest steady as USD pauses.
• Metals: Copper retraces as China risk tone cools amid tech/trade frictions.

Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy

• China: Reported customs crackdown on US AI chips; special port fees on US vessels start Oct 14; earlier expanded export controls on rare earths, batteries, graphite, super-hard materials (Dec start).
• US: Near framework to allow US chip exports to Saudi Arabia; probing possible workarounds to chip rules; considering pharma tariffs with potential generics exclusion.
• Bilateral tracks: US–Japan aim to smooth trade deal implementation; US–India review progress; Vietnam–US talks set for Oct/Nov.
• Rhetoric: White House floats curbing “massive” imports from China; plans to raise soybeans directly with Beijing.

Geopolitics

• Middle East (Gaza): Israel approves plan; military says ceasefire effective 10:00 BST; first phase includes hostage–prisoner exchange and initial withdrawal to agreed line. US signals support, possible small role in joint task force with Egypt/Qatar; Houthis say they’ll monitor compliance.
• Russia–Ukraine: Mass strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure; widespread eastern outages; US hints at additional sanctions on Moscow.
• Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure); accelerates air-defense build-out.
• UN: Plans ~25% cut to peacekeeping deployments due to funding; UNSC to meet on US–Venezuela tensions.

Watch next

• US CPI for FX direction.
• Implementation milestones on the Gaza ceasefire.
• Real-economy impact from China’s chip enforcement and port fees.
• Oil reaction to ceasefire and Saudi–China flows.
• Gold behaviour around $4k and USD/JPY volatility amid Japan politics.

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Fri, 10 Oct 2025, US Open)

Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto

FX

• USD: Firm into CPI as BLS prepares September release despite shutdown.
• JPY: MoF flags “one-sided, rapid” moves; vigilance for disorderly FX reiterated; USD/JPY eases below 153 after firmer PPI.
• EUR: Subdued below 1.16 with few fresh bullish drivers.
• GBP: Nursing losses; limited UK catalysts.
• AUD/NZD: Antipodeans stabilize on stronger CNY fix, but NZD stays heavy after RBNZ -50 bp and open door to more cuts.

Commodities

• Oil: Lacklustre; Gaza ceasefire framework tempers risk premium; Saudi crude flows to China seen lower Nov vs Oct.
• Gold: Below $4,000/oz after pullback from records; haven bid softer alongside firmer USD.
• Metals: Copper weaker on renewed US–China trade tensions and cautious China tone.

Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy

• China: Customs crackdown on US AI chips reported; new export controls (Dec 1) on rare earths, battery/graphite, super-hard materials; tougher rules for dual-use and military end-users.
• US: Considering excluding generics from pharma tariff plan (not final); probing channels skirting chip rules; progress on allowing US chip exports to Saudi Arabia.
• Bilateral tracks: US–Japan coordination on agreement implementation; US–India review progress; Vietnam–US talks set for Oct/Nov.
• White House rhetoric: Signals willingness to curb “massive” imports from China; intends to raise soybeans with Xi.

Geopolitics

• Middle East (Gaza): Israel approves plan tied to phase-one ceasefire (hostage-prisoner exchange, initial withdrawal to agreed line); timelines vary, implementation could begin within days. Hamas declares war ended with mediator/US guarantees; US to support via small joint task-force presence with Egypt/Qatar; Houthis say they’ll monitor compliance.
• Russia–Ukraine: Mass Russian strikes on energy infrastructure; widespread eastern outages reported; US hints at additional sanctions on Moscow.
• Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure) targeting infrastructure and public trust.
• UN: Plans ~25% cut to peacekeeping deployments amid funding constraints; UNSC to meet on US–Venezuela tensions.

Watch next: US CPI for FX direction; concrete steps and timing on the Gaza implementation; enforcement and market impact of China’s export controls and US chip-rule probes; energy-system risks from Ukraine strikes and any spillover into commodity pricing.