Data and analytics are very good at predicting the outcome of March Madness. However, you might choose to go against the numbers in your bracket.

This episode explores the cognitive science behind why you are still considering that 12 over 5 seed upset. Humans are worse than rats in dealing with randomness, and this has consequences in filling out your bracket for the 2024 NCAA tournament.

Bracket Wisdom is a daily series on The Football Analytics Show to get you ready to win your March Madness pool. To get your free cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket, sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter:

https://thepowerrank.com/

You will also get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of sports betting tips and analytics.

Do college basketball teams that perform better on the road have an edge in the NCAA tournament? Conversely, do teams that only thrive at home fail in March?

Edward Egros looks at the evolution of home court advantage and how teams perform on the road compared to home. He identifies three teams to fade in the 2024 NCAA tournament.

Bracket Wisdom is a daily series on The Football Analytics Show to get you ready to win your March Madness pool. To get your free cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket, sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter:

https://thepowerrank.com/

You will also get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of sports betting tips and analytics.

The Mountain West has had a remarkable season, as the mid-major conference might get up to six teams in the 2024 NCAA tournament. Edward Egros takes a data based approach to break down San Diego State, a team that made the title game in 2023, as well as Utah State and Boise State.

Bracket Wisdom is a daily series on The Football Analytics Show to get you ready to win your March Madness pool. To get your free cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket, sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter:

https://thepowerrank.com/

You will also get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of sports betting tips and analytics.

The Southeastern Conference has provided some of the best, most entertaining college basketball this season. Edward Egros breaks down the tournament chances for Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky.

Bracket Wisdom is a daily series on The Football Analytics Show to get you ready to win your March Madness pool. To get your free cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket, sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter:

https://thepowerrank.com/

You will also get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of sports betting tips and analytics.

Data is king, as predictive analytics should play a crucial role in predicting the outcome of the 2024 NCAA tournament. However, do not forget about a surprising predictive resource based on the wisdom of crowds.

Bracket Wisdom is a daily series on The Football Analytics Show to get you ready to win your March Madness pool. To get your free cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket, sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter:

https://thepowerrank.com/

You will also get 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics.

Professor Edward Egros, a sports analytics and betting expert who has worked for Fox, FanDuel and the NFL among other places, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The Big Ten team that can surprise in the NCAA tournament (2:13). The Big West team that could play Cinderella (4:07). Edward's favorite to win the 2024 tournament (9:17). Alabama (17:39). College basketball analytics resources (22:12). Bracket Wisdom series (24:38).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

You will also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket.

Ed Miller, co-author of the books Interception - The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting and The Logic of Sports Betting, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The one thing to take away from Interception (1:10). Betting versus making software for sports books operators (4:40). Why he and Matthew Davidow wrote Interception (6:47). Price discovery versus math models for making markets (10:39). The best way to win at sports betting that quants will like (16:45). How to beat same game parlays, or SGPs (20:22).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Jordan Sperber, college basketball analytics expert and founder of the Hoop Vision newsletter and channel, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Houston's top ranked defense defies analytics (1:12). Top national title contenders (8:31). Study on transition threes (9:38). Study on mid-range jumper (15:47). An overrated college basketball team (24:29).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Connecticut won the 2023 NCAA tournament in dominant fashion, and my numbers suggest that Dan Hurley's team will contend again this season.

This episode contains a chapter from the book The Miracle of St. Anthony by Adrian Wojnarowksi, my favorite sports book. It tells the story of a young Dan Hurley and his transition from playing to coaching.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting and March Madness bracket advice. To get my cheat sheet for filling out your bracket, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Matt Freedman, the head of betting at Matthew Berry Fantasy Life and the writer of the Betting Life newsletter, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: A more obscure Super Bowl prop (1:28). A more conventional Super Bowl prop (5:19). How Matt and Fantasy Life come up with quantitative predictions (10:00). How Kansas City will attack San Francisco (14:13). An alternative to Travis Kelce MVP bet (20:00). Brock Purdy interceptions (22:30). Super Bowl prop market (29:00).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/