Book: The Fourth Turning by William Strauss & Neil Howe

The Fourth Turning: Cycles of History and the Coming CrisisExecutive SummaryBased on a deep analysis of Anglo-American history over the last five centuries, a recurring pattern emerges: society enters a new era, or "turning," every two decades. These turnings occur in cycles of four, comprising a unit of time known as a saeculum, which spans the length of a long human life (80 to 100 years). This seasonal rhythm moves through stages of growth, maturation, entropy, and destruction.The document argues that the modern West, specifically America, is currently in an "Unraveling" (the Third Turning) and is approaching a "Crisis" (the Fourth Turning). This transition, predicted to begin around 2005 and conclude by 2025, represents a "great gate" in history. It is a period of secular upheaval where the old social order disintegrates to make way for a new one. The outcome of this impending Crisis is not predetermined; it could lead to national ruin and apocalypse or a new golden age of civic greatness. Preparation requires a fundamental shift from linear thinking to a seasonal understanding of time and social change.