The Free Press

SOHO, London — Howard Jacobson’s big brown eyes are ringed with purple bruises, and he has a wrist brace on his right hand. He slipped off the curb the afternoon before we met. I’m not in much better shape: My right hand and wrist are bandaged after a bout of overexuberant gardening.

When Howard shuffles into the café down the street from his apartment in London, all leonine beard and bedraggled mane, our server greets him as a regular. She looks at his bruised face and then at my hand—and asks me if I did it.

As the war with Iran enters its second week, it’s easy to focus on the abstractions of conflict—geopolitics, strategic objectives, oil prices, escalation risks. But war is never only about nations and interests. It is also about individuals: the people asked to fight, and the families who wait for them to return.

At least six American service members have already been killed in the Iran war, alongside many more from other countries. There will almost certainly be more. Each of them leaves behind a life and legacy: parents, spouses, children, memories, and unfinished plans.

Few understand this more viscerally than retired U.S. Army lieutenant general Mark Hertling. In his new book, If I Don’t Return: A Father’s Wartime Journal, out on March 10, Hertling reflects on the most intimate dimension of war—the fear of leaving your family behind, and the quiet courage required to face that possibility. The following exclusive excerpt begins in 1990, when Hertling, then a young cavalry officer preparing to deploy to the Gulf War, began writing a journal for his two young sons in case he never came home.

His pages carry lessons today’s newest generation of soldiers may come to know all too well. —Jillian Lederman

In the late fall of 1990, I had a premonition that I just might die.

My cavalry squadron had just been ordered to war in Iraq, and our mission carried a blunt forecast: We might suffer over 50 percent casualties. Today, many Americans forget that Desert Storm was not expected to be easy. Saddam Hussein had the fourth-largest army in the world, and they had just fought an eight-year war with Iran. Hussein had also just used chemical agents against his own citizens—the Kurds—in a town called Halabja. Back then, many of us were expecting the worst.

That number hung over the squadron like a cloud. We weren’t overcome with panic—we were, after all, soldiers being asked to do our duty. But I had the sober and nagging realization that my two young sons, then 10 and 7, just might grow up without really knowing their father.

My remedy was to begin a journal, recounting my time in service and my reflections on it. If I didn’t come home, I thought, at least our boys would have my words, know my actions, remember some things about me as they grew.

The human tendency to see patterns in a noisy sea of stimuli is called apophenia. Once, probably, this was important to our survival. To make the connection between a shift in the wind, a darkening sky, and the likelihood of coming rain; to discern the evenly spaced tracks of a rabbit or bobcat in freshly fallen snow; to be lost in the dark, only to gaze up at the stars and discover a map that will lead you home.

Today, instead of alerting us to a rhythmic rustling in the underbrush that could be just the wind but could also be a knife-wielding member of an enemy tribe, apophenia is mainly a means of telling ourselves stories—imposing narratives, theorizing conspiracies, chalking up to destiny or devilry what some would see as random happenstance. Did you know that Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy were both shot in the head, in the presence of their wives, by assassins with 15-letter names? Did you know that if you start playing Pink Floyd’s The Dark Side of the Moon at just the right moment during the opening credits of The Wizard of Oz, an eerie synchronicity emerges? Did you know that The Simpsons predicted 9/11?

The women of Iran have risked not just something, but everything, to defy their government in broad daylight.

To search the art of the past for harbingers of the present is a precarious enterprise; it’s all too easy to see something prescient, sinister, or supernatural in the imaginings of a previous decade. It is more precarious still to do this in search of narratives that not only predict the future but confirm our biases, political or otherwise, proving we were not just right but on the right side of history all along. We know this. We do it anyway.

Which brings me to A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night, a contemporary Western-cum-noir about a beautiful vampire whose hunting ground is an Iranian ghost town called Bad City. I saw it at the time of its release in 2014 and found it visually stunning but narratively unexceptional. But amid the ongoing unrest and violence in Iran, and in the wake of a U.S. military campaign that left the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dead—and his 36-year regime hanging onto its authority by a thread—I had a sense that it might make for an interesting rewatch. What I didn’t expect was a number of moments so bizarrely prophetic that they made the hairs on the back of my neck stand on end.

It’s Friday, March 6. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is packing up her office. Tucker Carlson turns on the Jews (again)—and Donald Trump turns on Tucker. Plus: what you don’t learn in med school. And more.

But first: It has been one week of war in Iran.

Six days ago, in the early hours of Saturday morning, the Iranian regime was decapitated. In a joint military attack, the U.S. and Israel struck military sites across the country, killing its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, alongside dozens of senior Iranian leaders.

Then Iran started fighting back, striking Israel, U.S. installations across the Middle East, and countries across the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, and Azerbaijan. In Kuwait, an Iranian drone strike killed six U.S. Army Reserve service members—the first American casualties of the war. According to Trump, “there will likely be more before it ends.” Meanwhile, at home in the United States, polls show the public is skeptical of the war, with just one in four saying they back the strikes.

A week in, much remains unclear: How long could this war last? Could Iran slide into civil war? What kind of government might emerge after the fighting? How have the strikes changed the balance of power in the Middle East? And what does it mean for the world order?

We asked some of the people we trust the most on this story—including Elliott Abrams, Christopher Caldwell, and Aaron MacLean—to share their takeaways from this extraordinary geopolitical moment.

—The Editors

The Free Press’s Rafaela Siewert sat down with Behnam to discuss how each of these scenarios might unfold—and what they mean for a regime in turmoil. Watch their full conversation here.

This week, we’ve brought you wall-to-wall coverage of the war in Iran, as escalating hostilities threaten to reshape the region—and the world. But this story didn’t begin on Saturday. Just as important as the reaction to the strikes is the analysis of how we got here, and where events may lead next. Earlier this week, Aaron MacLean traced the full historical arc of how the Iranian regime squandered its ambitions, while Michael Oren explained why October 7, 2023, marked the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic. And don’t miss Jay Solomon’s analysis of why Iran’s Kurdish opposition may determine the future of the regime: whether it survives, or descends into civil war.

Is this more than just a regional war—and whose interests are at stake? As Haviv Rettig Gur explained in an incisive essay this week, the battle in Iran isn’t just an Israeli fight—at its core, it’s an American one. Read Haviv’s piece to understand the American interests at play. Then check out Zineb Riboua’s analysis of why this conflict is ultimately tied to our broader strategic competition with China, America’s most powerful adversary. Finally, Niall Ferguson answers a question on all of our minds: Could this be the start of World War III?

Lastly, on a lighter note, if you’re looking to round out a week of tough news with a breath of fresh air, Arthur Brooks has just the thing for you. In his latest column, he explains how AI will upend everything we know—and why we just might come out happier on the other side.

The Front Page will be back on Monday morning. Until then, look out for The Weekend Press, featuring retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling on how he confronted his fear of death on the battlefield, Suzy Weiss reviewing the newest Pixar film, a fresh batch of Free Press Cupid ads, a night among the Clawdbots, and more.

Americans have learned not to expect much from their public servants, yet a few politicians still manage to trip on the amazingly low bar. In little more than a year in office, Kristi Noem suffered countless self-inflicted embarrassments, repeatedly slandered her opponents, and helped tank public approval for her boss on what had been his best issue. On Thursday, the president corrected the error he made by hiring her in the first place, and proved that there is still a bar at all.

President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Noem will exit as head of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) at the end of the month, to be replaced by Oklahoma senator Markwayne Mullin once he secures confirmation. The shuffle came after a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Tuesday at which Noem offered dozens of insults and no apologies to lawmakers with valid doubts about her record.

Senator Dick Durbin, a Democrat, gave Noem a chance to explain and retract her claim that two people shot and killed by federal immigration agents in January had engaged in “domestic terrorism.” That term doesn’t match the activities of either Renee Good or Alex Pretti. Whether or not they broke the law in the course of protesting immigration enforcement, neither showed any sign of having arrived with the intention of attacking or killing anyone. Yet Noem made no apology, even after two months to reflect, and blamed her bad info on the “chaotic scene” on the ground. It’s more likely that she simply chose to use the term, since the deputies who informed her deny that they accused either Good or Pretti of terrorism.

Of course he did.

That was my first thought when I heard that Tucker Carlson, in a recent podcast episode, had directed his ire over the Iran war at none other than the Chabad movement—one of the largest Jewish organizations in the world.

The reason? According to Carlson, it all stems from a small fabric patch that some members of the Israel Defense Forces have chosen to wear on their uniforms. The patch depicts the Third Temple, referring to vision in some Jewish traditions of one day rebuilding a holy place of worship on the Temple Mount—the holiest site in Judaism, third-holiest in Islam, and the current location of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

“How exactly,” Carlson asks, as images of several soldiers flash across the screen, did members of the IDF “wind up wearing patches suggesting the point of this war was the destruction of one of the holiest places in Islam, and the rebuilding of a temple that is totally anathema to Christianity?”

Naturally, he has an answer.

“This has been going on a long time in public through, in part, the efforts of a group called Chabad. C-H-A-B-A-D.”

Medical training is, by necessity, obsessed with crises: strokes, sepsis, heart attacks, cancers. Doctors race to manage the emergencies that can kill you today. But in that rush, they often ignore the slow, cumulative forces that shape how your body feels. Charlotte Grinberg, a primary care doctor who has written several pieces for The Free Press, will…

Six days ago, in the early hours of Saturday morning, the Iranian regime was decapitated. In a joint military attack, the U.S. and Israel struck military sites across the country, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, alongside dozens of senior Iranian leaders. “When we are finished, take over your government,” President Donald Trump urged the Iranians in the hours after the operation. “It will be yours to take.”

Then Iran started fighting back.

The regime’s retaliatory strikes have targeted Israel and U.S. installations across the Middle East, and countries across the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, and Azerbaijan. In Kuwait, an Iranian drone strike killed six U.S. Army Reserve service members—the first American casualties of the war. According to Trump, “there will likely be more before it ends.”

At home in the United States, polls show the public is skeptical of the war, with just one in four saying they back the strikes. Some Trump supporters who backed him for his pledge to end overseas conflicts now fear that the country is sliding into another war. Others argue the opposite: that decisive, overwhelming force may prevent a far larger conflict later.

A week in, much remains unclear: How long could this war last? Could Iran slide into civil war? What kind of government might emerge after the fighting? How have the strikes changed the balance of power in the Middle East? And what does it mean for the world order?

To help us make sense of these questions and more, we asked a range of Free Press contributors—some skeptical of the war, others supportive—what they learned from what has been a seismic week. Here’s what they had to say.

Welcome back to another week in America. We’re having a premium subscriber Zoom today at noon with me, Mene Ukueberuwa, Will Rahn, and Suzy Weiss—chatting all things Free Press, Middle East, and anything else. Please fill out this form to ask your question. I’ll be available only for compliments and apologies, but do your worst to the other three.

Also, we are looking for a photo editor! Are you in Brooklyn but also sick of having friends? Join us. More info here.

Now, to the news.

→ Trump at war: We’re officially bombing Iran. And Iran is bombing, well, everyone they can. They’ve reportedly lobbed missiles, drones, and deck chairs at the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Turkey as well as Israel, its number-one bombing love. But it’s been a pretty dismal showing. We’re very much and clearly winning. Like, really, really easily. Here’s Trump on the war timeline: “We also projected four weeks to terminate the military leadership, and as you know, that was done in about an hour so we’re ahead of schedule there.” And here’s Trump on who should become Iran’s new leader: “Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead. . . we had some in mind from that group that is dead. And now we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports.” And they should stop picking one among themselves: “They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela.” It will be done in ancestral Trump fashion, via swimsuit competition in an indoor/outdoor pavilion at a resort. In other war news, a U.S. submarine sank an enemy ship by torpedo for the first time since World War II. Welcome back to water warfare, baby! There’s unbelievable footage of a fighter pilot shot down over Kuwait, in a bright and cheery mood as locals approach her there in that dust bowl. They thank her for what she’s doing, and offer her help (thank goodness she didn’t land in Minneapolis).

For anyone shocked that Trump “the Dove” would bomb Iran, it’s helpful to remember that federal investigators discovered two alleged Iranian-backed Trumpo assassination attempts, so of the Ayatollah, Trump said: “I got him before he got me. They tried twice. Well, I got him first.” He also, if you’ll recall, kept talking about how he’d bomb Iran when he was campaigning. That might explain why J.D. Vance and Tulsi Gabbard have been sidelined to their own special war room, where I assume The Hurt Locker is playing on a loop so they feel like they’re in on the action. They’re the future of the GOP, but the Boomers have to retire first, and we all know Boomers don’t retire. Boomers only die. Clutching their scepters. So, for now, for one last war, it’s a little picnic table for those cuties to sit around. Well, it’s the Situation Room. But honey, this is Mar-a-Lago’s war.

General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie Jr., USMC (retired), commanded U.S. Central Command from 2019 to 2022. General McKenzie led a distinguished 42-year career in the U.S. Marine Corps, commanding at multiple levels and serving on the Joint Staff. In this in-depth conversation, General McKenzie shares his insights on the recent U.S.-Israeli military campaig…