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Title:
How Small Regulatory Changes in Rail Productivity Impact Freight Pricing
Hook:
In this episode, we explore how subtle updates from the Surface Transportation Board can significantly influence freight costs and negotiations. Learn why catching these signals early can give your business a competitive edge.
Key Topics:
The significance of the rail productivity factor (RCAF) and its recent proposed adjustment to 1.015
How regulatory shifts subtly reshape freight pricing models and contracting strategies
The importance of understanding the math behind productivity measures and cost implications
Why integrating regulatory insights into transportation budgets is critical for executives
The role of AI and specialized tools like Freight GPT in interpreting complex freight market signals
The long-term impact of small percentage changes on freight networks and corporate strategies
Practical steps for freight leaders to assess exposure to regulatory shifts and adjust accordingly
The value of translating technical regulatory language into clear business decisions
How proactive interpretation of signals can enhance negotiation leverage and operational planning
The future of freight decision-making with faster data interpretation and AI tools
Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the impact of small regulatory adjustments on freight costs
00:29 - Explanation of the Surface Transportation Board's proposed productivity factor increase to 1.015
00:57 - Why these seemingly minor shifts influence future rate negotiations
01:26 - What the rail productivity index (RCAF) is and its role in contracts
02:00 - The connection between RCAF movements and freight pricing strategies
02:11 - Regulatory updates amid complex market conditions
02:28 - Details of the proposed change from 2019-2023 to 2020-2024 productivity measures
02:57 - Market implications of small headline changes in regulation
03:23 - The deeper logic behind the productivity number and its calculation
04:03 - How the five-year geometric average affects industry expectations
04:32 - The significance of the 2.5% decline in productivity growth in 2023-202405:03 - The importance of writing regulatory shifts into strategic planning
05:12 - How executive teams can anticipate and interpret regulatory signals
05:34 - Practical advice for transportation budgeting and risk assessment
06:01 - Testing assumptions about rail cost increases and embedded productivity offset
06:43 - The need for translation of regulatory language into business clarity
07:13 - The role of AI tools like Freight GPT in speeding up decision-making
07:42 - Why understanding formulas early leads to competitive advantages
08:04 - Summarizing the regulatory reminder and strategic opportunity
08:32 - How purpose-built AI tools reduce decision lag in freight markets
08:53 - Building teams that interpret dense freight data for faster action
09:17 - Wrapping up with the importance of staying ahead through early signal recognition and AI tools
Resources & Links:
Freight GPT for translating freight data into decision-making
Connect with Leon Daniels:
Navigating Rising Ocean and Domestic Freight Costs: Insights from Freight Flow Advisor
In this episode, Freight Flow Advisor delves into the rapidly changing landscape of ocean freight rates, domestic intermodal challenges, and strategic planning for shippers and 3PLs amid geopolitical disruptions and capacity squeeze. Gain actionable insights to prepare your supply chain for upcoming fluctuations and costs.
Key topics
The impact of the Suez Canal rerouting and Cape of Good Hope rerouting on global capacity and freight rates
How rising ocean freight rates and capacity reductions affect domestic port congestion and drayage costs
Intermodal market squeeze: why inland rates are rising and how to adapt
Inventory management strategies amid delays and increased safety stock requirements
Key deadlines: April 1, April 10-14, and April 26 for rate changes, data releases, and surcharges
The importance of scenario planning for ocean freight costs and capacity constraints
How geopolitical risks are likely to influence ocean liner schedules through 2026
Strategies for shippers and 3PLs to navigate capacity, rate fluctuations, and port congestion
Timestamps
00:00 – Introduction: Current ocean freight cost overview and why it matters0:29 – How the Suez Canal rerouting impacts global capacity and domestic freight0:57 – The domino effect on drayage, chassis, and warehouse inventory1:13 – The significance of routing shifts on supply chain cycles1:29 – Data overview: Recent ocean rate trends and future forecasts2:08 – Capacity reductions from rerouting and blank sailings explained2:47 – Lane-specific rate increases: Shanghai to Genoa, Rotterdam, New York, Los Angeles4:05 – The difference between current spot rates and filed GRIs for April5:01 – How emergency fuel surcharges are adding to rate increases5:43 – Implications of rising port and inland freight costs for importers and domestic operators6:40 – FreightFA.com platform benefits for freight planning7:49 – Domestic port congestion and port drainage rate increases8:32 – The intermodal market squeeze and truck capacity trends9:02 – The surge in inland intermodal demand and rate implications9:57 – Growing warehouse demand and safety stock considerations amid extended lead times10:33 – Rising parcel costs and their correlation with ocean delays11:08 – Strategic recommendations: Scenario planning and proactive cost modeling11:38 – Major liner outlook: Suez delays extending into 202612:05 – Action steps for shippers, 3PLs, and domestic carriers for April and beyond13:03 – How to stay informed via FreightFA.com and SubstackResources & Links:
FreightFA.com
Substack: Freight FA Brief
Ocean Rate Index (Drury World Container Index)
Connect with [Leon Daniels]:
Title: The 8% Surcharge No One Anticipated
Fuel Surcharges and the New Normal in Freight PricingAre rising diesel prices shaping the future of freight costs? In this episode, we explore how recent geopolitical events and fuel price surges influence shipping rates across all modes — parcel, LTL, truckload, and ocean freight. Understand the cascade effect of fuel surcharges and how your business can stay protected.
Key Topics:
The impact of $5.37 per gallon diesel on freight costs and surcharge cascade
The mechanics of fuel surcharges: how they are calculated and compounded
The influence of geopolitical conflicts, such as the Strait of Hormuz crisis, on global fuel prices
How carrier rate increases and GRIs are reacting to fuel market shifts
The implications for shippers' budgeting, contracts, and strategic planning
Tools like FreightFA.com for real-time rate intelligence and data-driven decision making
Why "temporary" surcharges are increasingly permanent due to structural market shifts
Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction to current diesel fuel prices and their relevance00:26 - USPS temporary surcharge: what it signals for freight costs00:52 - The long-term impact of surcharge cascades across freight modes01:17 - How fuel surcharges are directly tied to EIA diesel data01:37 - Mechanism of diesel price spikes originating from Hormuz conflicts02:10 - How spot diesel prices influence LTL and parcel surcharges02:34 - The automatic nature of surcharge indexing—weekly resets and their effects03:01 - Structural drivers behind diesel price increases, including geopolitical events03:22 - The effect of Strait of Hormuz disruptions on global crude and diesel prices04:19 - End-to-end impact on parcel carriers like USPS, UPS, FedEx04:56 - LTL rate adjustments and the concept of compounded GRIs and FSCs05:24 - Why certain carriers like Old Dominion are resilient amidst capacity shocks06:23 - Truckload market power, spot rate levels, and rejection rates07:23 - Ocean freight surcharges and capacity constraints due to geopolitical tensions08:41 - Freightfa.com: a vital tool for navigating freight rates and fuel surcharges09:10 - The multiplicative nature of surcharge stacking and budget misalignment09:38 - Future diesel price forecasts versus current spot prices10:16 - Why "temporary" surcharges are not likely to go away soon10:46 - Action items for shippers: review contracts, surcharge language, and fuel references11:15 - Advice for 3PLs and carriers to maximize fuel recapture opportunities12:11 - Key signals to watch: EIA weekly updates, Hormuz developments, contract cycles13:11 - Final thoughts: adapting to the new normal of freight costs13:25 - Closing remarks and resources for ongoing industry updates
Resources & Links:
Freightfa.com – Real-time freight rates and analysis tools
EIA Weekly Diesel & Crude Oil Data
Substack: Freight FA Brief
Connect with the Host:
Connecting the Dots on US Tariffs: A Strategic Legal Roadmap
In this episode, we dissect the recent legal and strategic moves in US trade tariffs, focusing on the Supreme Court’s ruling against IEEPA tariffs, the transition to Section 122 of the Trade Act, and the implications for freight and international trade. If you're affected by tariffs or involved in US trade policy, this deep dive will clarify the complex legal landscape and upcoming key dates.
Main Topics:
The Supreme Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs and the legal repercussions
How the US is transitioning from IEEPA to Section 122 and Section 301 tariffs
The strategic timing of investigations, hearings, and negotiations related to tariffs
The impact of USMCA negotiations colliding with tariff timelines
The broader geopolitical context with China and upcoming summits
Key Insights:
The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, highlighting their illegal use and prompting a strategic shift
The Trump administration quickly announced a replacement tariff under Section 122, with a 150-day window (until July 24)
The US is preparing for a potential reversion to previous tariff levels within five months, according to insiders
Investigations under Section 301 on excess capacity and forced labor are designed to land before the expiration of Section 122
Section 301 tariffs are more permanent and flexible, with no statutory cap and substantial legal resilience
The USMCA review starting July 1 offers leverage in trade negotiations, especially with tariffs possibly covering Mexican and Canadian goods
China’s response with counter-investigations adds bargaining chips ahead of the May summit
Timelines to Watch:
April 15: Deadline for public comments on investigations (Section 301)
April 28: Labor enforcement hearing
May 5: Excess capacity investigation hearing
May 14-15: Trump-Xi summit in Beijing
June: Preliminary determinations published
July 1: USMCA formal review begins
July 24: Section 122 expires; potential tariffs decisions imminent
Resources & Links:
International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974
Section 301 Tariffs
USMCA Trade Agreement
Freight FA Platform
Connect with Leon Daniels:
Freight Market Shakeup: Major Deals and Industry Shifts in 2026
In this episode of the Freight Flow Advisor Brief, we explore the latest blockbuster deals shaping the third-party logistics (3PL) market, the fallout from recent freight recession trends, and strategic insights for shippers, carriers, and investors in a rapidly consolidating industry.
Key Topics:
The significance of Echo Global Logistics’ $5.2 billion acquisition of ITS Logistics and its implications for integrated freight solutions
Toma Bravo’s $5.2 billion deal to acquire WWEX Group and the potential to unify parcel shipping and freight brokerage platforms through AI
The ongoing freight recession’s impact, including over 5,400 brokerages shutting down since January 2022
How rising spot rates and capacity constraints are creating a window for private equity investments in mid-tier 3PLs
The emergence of three distinct segments in the 3PL industry: “big dogs,” specialized regional players, and struggling undercapitalized shops
Critical strategic recommendations for shippers and carriers based on current market dynamics
Timestamps:
00:00 - Overview of recent massive 3PL deals and industry significance00:30 - Breakdown of Echo’s acquisition of ITS Logistics and strategic benefits00:59 - The Toma Bravo and WWEX Group deal: unifying parcel and freight platforms with AI01:28 - Why current industry consolidation is driven by pandemic-induced carrier failures01:52 - The role of recent freight recession in market shakeout and company failures02:22 - The importance of integrated service offerings for shippers02:53 - How AI promises to eliminate traditional middlemen in freight shipping03:06 - The strategic move to create an all-in-one shipping platform by 202603:35 - Impact of freight recession-driven bankruptcies on industry structure04:25 - Major bankruptcies: STG Logistics, Bullmarks, Newkirk, and others04:47 - The wave of financial restructuring in freight and what it signals for market health05:08 - The threat of over-leveraged and undercapitalized brokers05:36 - Trends in freight market recovery and the risk of rising costs for buyers06:06 - How the freight recession is clearing the field for stronger players06:13 - The cyclical nature of market consolidations during downturns06:23 - The importance of capital management and strategic acquisitions06:49 - FreightFA.com as a tool for instant freight rate intelligence07:18 - Rising spot rates and their impact on the valuation of logistics companies07:48 - The risks of overpaying for increasingly valuable assets during the recovery08:09 - The alarming debt levels among large 3PLs like STG Logistics08:43 - The segmentation of the 3PL industry into large, niche, and distressed players09:13 - Small brokers on the cusp of exit, and the importance of tech investment09:43 - The strategic importance of funding platforms like Cart.com for future freight innovation09:52 - Actionable steps for shippers and private equity sponsors in this evolving landscape10:21 - Advising carriers on the risks of larger, more concentrated contracts10:48 - The ongoing wave of consolidation and its implications for industry competition11:11 - The importance of monitoring upcoming deals like WWEX and Octane11:20 - Final thoughts: the consolidation trend likely to continue11:46 - How to stay connected and informed with Freight Flow Advisor’s content and resources12:03 - Wrap-up and next steps for industry participants
Resources & Links:
FreightFA.com - Freight rate intelligence platform
Cart.com - Platform for fulfillment and AI-driven logistics innovation
ShipStation - Shipping software used by small businesses
WWEX Group - Logistics and shipping solutions company
Echo Global Logistics - Leading 3PL provider
Connect with the Host:
Leon Daniels on LinkedIn
Freight Flow Advisor on LinkedIn
Main Topics:
The crackdown on Electronic Logging Devices (ELDs) and its timeline
How increased enforcement is accelerating market contraction
The strategic implications for carriers, shippers, and industry stakeholders
Regulatory risks: English proficiency, device revocations, and driver disqualifications
Insights from major carriers' earnings calls on market tightening
The rising importance of compliance as a competitive advantage
The future outlook: Supply reduction and market restructuring
Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the recent ELD device revocations and their scale 00:29 - Overview of the enforcement push and upcoming compliance deadlines 01:00 - Connecting dots: How enforcement, CVSA rules, and legislation shape the market 01:38 - Why these regulatory changes are more than just compliance; they’re market disruptors 02:07 - The real reason behind the rate recovery: supply is being wiped out 02:28 - The potential for a historic trucking shortage driven by regulation 03:09 - What is an ELD and its role in safety and compliance 03:15 - Timeline of ELD device removals and replacement deadlines 03:38 - The risks of non-compliance with upcoming deadlines 04:06 - CVSA’s new tampering enforcement rules and consequences 04:43 - The impact of driver disqualifications on industry capacity 05:11 - Industry data: Driver shortages, carrier activity, and market risks 05:35 - The regulatory “axe” on industry oversupply and market correction 06:11 - Introduction to FreightFA.com and its value for freight rate intelligence 06:46 - How the current crackdown differs from previous market resets 07:19 - The potential for carriers to exit if they fail to meet compliance standards 07:50 - Insights from major carriers’ earnings calls on the market shift 08:18 - Strategic advantages for compliant carriers and risk to non-compliant partners 08:47 - The ongoing rate recovery and supply tightening signals 09:04 - Key upcoming deadlines: March 15, April 1, and April 14 09:32 - How to interpret market signals: rising out-of-service orders and earnings calls 10:00 - Final thoughts: The structural changes underway in the freight industry 10:14 - Call to action: Follow, share, and stay informed through FreightFA and SubstackResources & Links:
FreightFA.com – Instant freight rate intelligence platform
Substack - Freight FA Brief – Curated articles on freight market updates
Connect with A - Freight Flow Advisor:
<|OPENING|>
Understanding the Divine Impact of Driver Shortages on Freight Rates and Industry Stability
In this episode, we explore the recent revisions in trucking industry data, the implications of a significant driver shortage, and how these shifts are influencing freight rates and capacity in 2026. Whether you're a carrier or shipper, grasping these insights is crucial for strategic planning.<|KEY TOPICS|>
The revised trucking driver employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and why the new figures reveal a deeper industry crisis.
The enormous driver attrition: 122,000 drivers lost since October 2022, nearly double the previous estimates.
How the driver shortage has accelerated rate recovery and tight capacity, contradicting earlier beliefs.
The impact of minimal new truck production on market tightness and elevated freight rates.
The significance of the narrowing gap between spot and contract rates as a predictor for rate increases.
The importance of recent rate forecasts from industry leaders like CH Robinson and the Cass Truckload Line Haul Index.
The misconception of active carrier capacity based solely on authority registrations versus actual operational capacity.
Industry implications: increased carrier leverage, declining procurement windows, and the need to reevaluate 2026 freight strategies.
Upcoming key dates: March BLS jobs report and class 8 truck orders as signals of ongoing capacity constraints.
<|TIMESTAMPS|> 00:00 - Introducing the freight industry’s major driver shortage update00:32 - BLS revision: from 3,500 to 28,000 drivers lost in 202500:48 - Why the driver shortage matters more than recent reports suggest01:18 - The impact of the reevaluated driver loss on freight rates01:55 - How the top employment peak shifted slightly but decline accelerated02:23 - Why existing rate models have been based on flawed data02:44 - The surge in bankruptcies and the case of Sparhawk Trucking03:42 - Decline in truck builds and aging fleets limiting supply04:13 - The ongoing decline in LTL jobs and overall industry capacity04:41 - The misconception of capacity based on active authorities05:00 - Introduction to FreightFA.com and AI-driven market insights06:00 - Spot rates rising for seven consecutive months, indicating recovery06:36 - CH Robinson’s increased 2026 cost forecasts and industry signals07:04 - The Cass Truckload Index hitting a two-year high amid supply constraints07:34 - Key takeaways: hidden driver losses, capacity illusions, and building shortages08:03 - Strategic advice for carriers and shippers in the evolving market08:48 - Important upcoming dates to monitor for industry health09:13 - Closing remarks and resources for deeper insights<|RESOURCES & LINKS|>
FreightFA.com - Freight rate insights and AI analyst tools
CH Robinson 2026 Rate Forecast - Industry updates and forecast reports
Cass Truckload Line Haul Index - Freight market index data
<|CONNECT WITH|>
Follow Freight Flow Advisor on LinkedIn
Subscribe to their Substack for detailed analysis and charts
The Tied-Together Canals: Navigating Freight Chaos in 2023
In this episode, we explore the complex interplay between the Panama Canal and Suez, revealing how recent disruptions are reshaping global freight routes, costs, and strategic decisions. Freight industry insiders and data-driven analysis shed light on the new normal in container shipping.
Key Topics:
The stark contrast between stability in Panama and chaos in Suez and Hormuz, and how these are interconnected.
The impact of route changes on shipping capacity, costs, and transit times, including the long Cape of Good Hope detour adding 19 days.
How major alliances like Maersk-Hanjar-Lloyd and ZIM are influencing market power and capacity control.
The significance of recent rate shifts, including MSC and CMA’s FAK rate resets starting March 22, and the potential for surcharges if oil prices remain high.
The importance of monitoring canal capacities and geopolitical developments affecting energy and freight costs.
Timestamps:
(0:00) - Introduction to the freight chaos driven by canal disruptions
(0:31) - The interconnectedness of Panama and Suez Canal issues
(1:01) - How route shifts affect fleet capacity and shipping times
(1:31) - The surge in cargo through Panama and La ports’ performance
(2:17) - Market split: contrasting index trends and lane-specific rates
(3:07) - The impact of Suez lane disruptions on European routes
(3:59) - The strategic importance of alliances and market control
(4:10) - Raw data on carrier mergers and fleet dominance
(4:43) - How oligopoly influences capacity and space availability
(5:12) - The role of FreightFA.com in rate sourcing during volatility
(5:57) - the significance of global capacity, order book, and oversupply issues
(6:26) - The effects of route-specific oversupply and undersupply dynamics
(7:08) - Maersk’s Q4 losses and survival strategies in a shifting market
(8:07) - Upcoming rate resets, surcharges, and geopolitical risks
(8:38) - The potential energy crisis if Hormuz remains blocked
(9:07) - Monitoring canal capacity limits and strategic mergers
(9:36) - Final takeaways and how to stay ahead in this evolving landscape
Resources & Links:
FreightFA.com - Freight rate intelligence platform
FreightFA Substack - In-depth articles and charts
Maersk - Global shipping giant
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services - Major carrier
Connect with Leon Daniels:
<|SUMMARY|>
Title:
The Future of Trucking: Capacity, Autonomous Trucks, and Industry Shifts
Hook:
In this episode, we explore how autonomous trucking is transforming freight capacity and what it means for shippers, carriers, and investors. With Aurora's milestones and industry trends, learn why capacity access and cost will shape the next decade of logistics.
Key Topics:
Aurora's milestone: 250,000 miles traveled with zero collisions and sold-out capacity through Q3 2026
The real story: capacity allocation and the demographic drivers of labor shortage
Industry struggles: driver loss, declining tractor orders, bankruptcies, and regulatory pressures
The technological reliability proven by miles, shifting focus to capacity deployment
Comparing costs: autonomous capacity versus human driver costs amid demographic shifts
Production ramp expectations: 20 trucks per week starting in H2 2026
Key dates to watch: Q2 2026 hardware launch and end-2026 milestones
Convergence of ground and aerial autonomous logistics (e.g., Zipline, Aurora)
Strategic implications: early movers lock in advantages, waiting widens the cost gap
Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction to Aurora's autonomous trucking milestone00:10 - Significance of 250,000 miles with zero collisions00:40 - The importance of capacity access over technology doubts01:10 - Industry driver shortages and regulatory pressures01:57 - Aurora's capacity expansion and key financials02:27 - Industry challenges: bankruptcies and declining tractor orders03:24 - Regulatory trends accelerating industry attrition03:56 - Aurora's growth plans: hardware launches and production targets04:52 - Kodiak AI's fleet doubling and innovative capabilities05:50 - The exit of Waymo Via and its impact on Aurora's position06:35 - The shift from tech feasibility to capacity allocation06:55 - Demographics driving the cost of human drivers upward07:25 - Autonomous trucks' advantage in time and labor savings07:54 - Strategic takeaways for shippers and carriers08:30 - Production ramp expectations and revenue milestones08:58 - Waiting risks and cost widening for carriers09:28 - Key dates for hardware launches and fleet growth in 202609:50 - Regulatory movements and drone delivery convergence10:20 - Industry driver shortage projections for the next decade10:49 - Final thoughts: lock-in advantages and industry evolution11:17 - Reminder: follow and subscribe for insights and analysis
Resources & Links:
FreightFA.com — Freight rate intelligence platform
Aurora Innovations — Autonomous trucking company
Kodiak AI — Autonomous trucking technology
Zipline — Autonomous drone delivery service
Connect with the Host:
Railroad Safety and Merger Risks: Norfolk Southern's Recent Incidents and Industry ImplicationsIn this episode, we explore Norfolk Southern's recent safety record, derailment incidents, and how these events impact the ongoing rail merger discussions. We analyze the broader implications for industry trust, regulatory decisions, and stakeholder confidence.
Key topics covered:
Norfolk Southern’s 31% reduction in FRA reportable accidents in 2025 and its strategic messaging.
The derailments near Blair County, Pennsylvania, including the March 7th Horseshoe Curve incident, and safety communication failures.
The concept of stringlining and its role in derailments, along with preventative measures.
The impact of safety events on Norfolk Southern’s merger application with Union Pacific and industry perception.
How safety record misalignment affects regulatory approval and trust with stakeholders.
The importance of timely and transparent communication with first responders and regulators.
Industry opposition to the NS-UP merger from trade groups, legal experts, and government officials.
How derailments in just 48 days challenge claims of industry self-regulation.
Monitoring the April 30th deadline for revised merger filings and potential regulatory and legislative responses.
The broader question: Can a railroad with safety communication failures be trusted with major freight responsibilities?
Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction and overview of Norfolk Southern’s safety record and recent incidents00:28 - Breakdown of Q4 2025 financials and safety messaging aims00:56 - Blair County derailments and communication failures1:26 - Details of the March 7th Horseshoe Curve derailment1:55 - Mechanical causes, specifically stringlining, and prevention strategies2:24 - The safety and communication failures' broader implications for the merger3:11 - Significance of Horseshoe Curve and train handling risks3:41 - The pattern of derailments and safety lapses between February and March4:12 - Financial performance and safety costs post-East Palestine incident4:42 - Safety report’s strategic intent versus real safety culture issues5:11 - Regulatory environment and the opposition to the NS-UP merger5:40 - Industry and legal opposition from trade groups and government officials6:10 - Freight industry opposition’s cautious stance and risks to the merger6:39 - The role of public and legislative scrutiny in rail safety regulation6:49 - FreightFA.com sponsor message and platform for industry professionals7:18 - The narrative of safety improvements versus real operational challenges7:46 - Why derailment incidents undermine trust signals in the industry8:15 - Implications of the safety communication failures for future FDA filings8:46 - Key factors to monitor ahead of the April 30th merger refile deadline9:14 - Congressional and regulatory scrutiny on industry self-regulation9:43 - The critical trust question: Can Norfolk Southern be trusted with major freight responsibilities?10:12 - Closing remarks, subscription info, and follow-up resourcesResources & Links:
FreightFA.com – Freight rate intelligence platform
Connect with Leon Daniels:
From the publisher's feed
Turning market volatility into competitive advantage for shippers and brokers. Global carriers publish an enormous amount of financial and market data. Most shippers never see it in a form they can…