The Future is Electric

Seven concepts — fungibility, ubiquity, loose coupling, electronics outperforming the physical, human nature, economics, and the future already being here — make it clear that the future is electric. They allow us to look across the existing solution sets and see clear winners and losers. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

There’s no reason to think that Gen IV reactors whenever they actually get to a stage where they might be deployed commercially will end up being cheaper than alternatives. The opposite is likely to be true, that they will be much more expensive than the alternatives and with other unappealing characteristics. This is a podcast version of the article with the same name on the TFIE Medium podcast.

In 2017, Stanford economist Tony Seba and tech investor James Arbib released a co-authored study which made the following claims: “Private car ownership will drop 80% by 2030 in the US" and "The number of passenger vehicles on American roads will go from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030." Those are compelling numbers, but I’m not buying them. I think the underlying model of human behavior and transportation is too simplistic. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name in the TFIE Medium publication.

Congestion is a serious issue in developed countries, but autonomous cars are likely to be as much a part of the problem as part of the solution. As I look across all of the systemic implications of autonomous cars, I see equal or greater congestion on our roads, not less, and more societal negative externalities than advantages. Autonomous vehicles are not a silver bullet for traffic problems. This is a podcast version of the article by the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

This story deals with how neural nets learn to pay attention to specific features, giving them priority in a continuum of what they pay attention to. This is referred to as salience, a key aspect of how humans pay attention. Neural nets can be trained to have our saliency biases or they can develop their own, ones that will often surprise us. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Some people keep saying one degree Celsius like it’s no big deal. But it’s a very big deal, especially the rapidity with which we are going it. One degree is disruptive. Two degrees is massively disruptive. Three degrees is catastrophic for millions of people globally. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

There is a core of 100% settled science at the heart of climate change which will not change unless there is a huge paradigm shift in our understanding of the climate, something which is extremely unlikely. None of the precursors Kuhn identified to a paradigm shift are actually apparent in the literature and research that is underway. This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the TFIE Medium publication.

Harley-Davidson has a racism problem. Even its most progressive brand adherents have challenges with that. And even its most progressive and rational adherents will cherry-pick, deny and obfuscate to avoid confronting unpleasant reality. This is a podcast version of the article by the same name in the Medium TFIE publication.

Global warming disruption is upon us. We have record hurricanes in North America, increasing typhoons in Asia, increasing and changing monsoons around India, increased wildfires in Australia and western North America and sea water in the streets of Miami and other major cities on sunny, calm days. Most people will adapt in place. But many have the means or motivation to find the places which will see lower impacts. Where will they be? This is a podcast version of the article of the same name on the Medium TFIE publication.

Electric cars and other vehicles continue to gain momentum, just as autonomous features are becoming mainstream. But while potential job losses due to autonomy are a strong focus, the multitude of impacts electrification will have on road transportation aren’t as clearly stated. Overall, the impact will be very positive economically, but there will be a lot of disruption and many losers too. This a podcast version of the article of the same name in the Medium TFIE publication.