On this episode of The Future of GovCon, Jake Frazer sits down with Tim Garnett, Partner and Space, Defense and Government Practice Lead at Oliver Wyman, formerly co-founder and Managing Partner of Avacent.
Tim has spent 25 years at the intersection of government, defense, and capital markets. He has advised on some of the most consequential M&A transactions in the GovCon space and has a front row seat to the capital revolution reshaping the defense industrial base right now.
In this conversation he covers the shift from waiting for the RFP to bringing solutions, the bifurcation of the market between exquisite and commercial, the rise of private equity and venture capital in defense, what the European defense build-up means for industry, and what GovCon looks like in 2029 when the current transformation is in full swing.
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⏱️ TIMESTAMPS
00:00 – Hook: A generational leadership change moment
01:13 – Welcome and introduction
01:34 – Tim's background and how he and Jake met 15 years ago
02:15 – What makes Oliver Wyman different: finger on the pulse of the budget and capital markets
03:10 – William and Mary, political science and economics
03:30 – Early career in Russia: the Wild West of the late 90s
05:17 – Friends who made their fortunes in Russia and what happened after Ukraine
05:36 – How Tim got into government contracting: finding DFI
06:45 – Learning the language of GovCon from day one as an analyst
07:50 – Curiosity is king in consulting: your most valuable day is your first
08:20 – The original tech boom and the early intersection of technology and defense
09:11 – Founding Avacent in 2007: the origin story
10:23 – Six partners, one vision: customer first, great culture
11:31 – The origin of the name Avacent: Steve Irwin and the word engine
12:36 – Growing Avacent from 36 to 140 people across DC, London, Paris, Tokyo
13:46 – Building an enterprise not a cult of personality
14:28 – Proprietary data and budget forecasting as a core differentiator
15:11 – What Tim looks for when hiring: hard work, curiosity, smart work
17:19 – Joining Oliver Wyman in November 2022: why the time was right
18:32 – Cultural fit and 15 years of relationship building with Roger Layman
19:08 – What Oliver Wyman added that Avacent never had: digital, supply chain, scale
20:40 – What Tim does now: Space, Defense and Government practice globally
21:54 – Working directly for OSD on industrial base transformation
24:02 – The PSC annual conference: the difference between 2025 and 2026
24:50 – How to get lined up for the $1.5 trillion budget
25:22 – The biggest challenge: timing. How long can you get ready without running?
26:06 – The DOGE philosophy: good in principle, complex in execution
27:58 – Why policy change takes ten years and what the parallel acquisition community means
28:45 – Where the priorities are heading: defense and Intel big increases
29:23 – How to tell your story in a way that gets the customer excited
30:28 – Changing your face to market: the open door administration
31:12 – Bring the solution. Don't ask what they need.
32:13 – The old school BD model is over: companies winning are leaning forward with 80% solutions
33:24 – Brett Lambert and the dinosaurs knitting sweaters
34:23 – Legacy vs new entrants: moving from competition to partnership
35:20 – Capital as the new lever: the triangle has become a square
36:02 – Early 2000s: taking DARPA technology commercial
36:28 – Palantir broke the mold. Anduril followed.
37:32 – The UAS consolidation that is coming: category winners and fallout
38:23 – Private equity: from the global financial crisis to today
40:23 – Where PE interest has shifted: services to manufacturing, software and tech
40:44 – Francisco Partners, Thoma Bravo, Bain Capital coming into defense
41:11 – The government as a source of creative capital: debt, equity, and customer all at once
42:20 – European defense: 11 to 12% growth forecast over 5 to 7 years
43:12 – Rebuilding the European industrial base: ESG reversal and 18 to 20 new PE funds
44:07 – The two track race: Ukraine near-term vs. long-term industrial rebuild
45:12 – Freedom's Forge 2.0: shuttered automotive factories being redesigned for defense
46:23 – The services gap in Europe: a huge and underappreciated opportunity
47:32 – What does GovCon look like in 2029?
48:17 – Strain on the acquisition force: spending fast with fewer people
49:04 – 2027 to 2028 getting things in order. 2029 the real bifurcation begins.
50:53 – The AI strategy question: everyone wants one but few know what it means
52:37 – One word on the future: "Dynamic"
53:14 – Generational leadership change: who steps up and redefines the great brands?
