The Geopolitical Blueprint

Professor Jiang examines if Iran President Ebrahim Raisi's death was an accident or an assassination: On May 19, Iran President Raisi's helicopter crashed into the mountains, killing all nine on board. Most experts believe it was a weather-related accident. There are skeptics who believed that powerful forces within Iran stood to gain from Raisi's death. Raisi was expected to become the next Iranian supreme leader, and now Mojtaba Khamenei (the current Ayatollah's second son) is the favorite. Under the current Ayatollah, the 250,000-strong Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have dominated Iran's economy, politics, and foreign policy. Their critics believe they have inflamed tensions in the Middle East, while causing stagnation and corruption at home. If Raisi were to have become Ayatollah, he would have to attempt to curb the power and influence of the IRGC in order to establish his own authority. Because Mojtaba Khamenei would be inexperienced and unpopular, he would have to rely on the support of the IRGC.This would allow the IRGC to pursue its most ambitious foreign policy goals, which would ultimately force a confrontation between the United States and Iran.

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Professor Jiang explains that an American invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic mistake:If Trump were to win a second term, he would likely contemplate invading Iran. While an initial invasion would seem successful, American forces would quickly become bogged down in Iran's mountainous terrain. The American invasion would be similar to Athens' invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE, as described in Thucydides' The Peloponnesian War. Despite its initial successes, the Athenians couldn't re-supply themselves, and their entire expedition was wiped out.This disastrous defeat turned the war in Sparta's favor, and spelled the downfall of the Athenian empire. Could the American empire in Iran suffer the same fate as the Athenian empire in Sicily?

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Professor Jiang explains why Putin is preparing to mobilize Russian society for total war:Putin's favorite philosopher Aleksandr Dugin believes that Russia and the West are fighting Samuel Huntington's War of Civilizations in Ukraine. What does he mean by this? In the late eighties, Francis Fukuyama published his "End of History?" essay, which argued that liberal democracy and consumerism are humanity's best conception of itself, and therefore history has ceased to be a dialectical argument. Both Dugin and Putin believe that Western consumerism is a poison pill that has corrupted Russian society. It has manipulated Russians into betraying their own civilization, and this betrayal has led to political corruption, rampant alcoholism, and a declining population. In the war against Ukraine, Putin has discovered that continuous war can rejuvenate the Russian soul. He is intent on channeling Russia's "warrior" culture to fight against consumerism.

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Professor Jiang explains Putin's strategic genius:In February 2022 Putin invaded Ukraine. At first, the war did not go well, and the United States had a three-point plan to defeat Putin:1.) Equip Ukraine to defeat the Russian army.2.) Sanction Russia, and cause it to economically implode.3.) Isolate Russia, and turn it into a pariah state.Today, we recognize that this strategy has failed, and Putin is triumphant:1.) The Russian army is dominant in Ukraine.2.) The Russian economy is stronger than ever.3.) Putin enjoys more international influence than ever.Putin's ultimate strategic aim is to destroy the American empire. He will succeed if:1.) America continues to over-extend itself militarily. 2.) America remains addicted to debt. 3.) America becomes increasingly politically polarized.

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Professor Jiang explores how and why America would fight a second Civil War:Right now, America is suffering three trends that make civil war more and more likely:

a.) Increasing political polarization driven by the culture wars and inequality.

b.) Breakdown of the narratives that bind America, especially the American Dream and liberalism.

c.) Growing distrust of America's national institutions, including the government, media, science, military, universities, and justice system.If Trump wins in November, we can expect riots and civil unrest. If Trump refuses to step down in 2028, we can expect a civil war to blow up.

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Professor Jiang Xueqin concludes his Geo-Strategy course by discussing how to use AI to chart a better future for humanity:In his Foundation series, Isaac Asimov introduces the science of psychohistory. Is it really possible to predict the future by mathematically modeling historical development?By mathematically modeling history, "Cliodynamics" has revealed interesting patterns. For example, Peter Turchin has discovered that it's the "over-production of elites" that drives social upheaval. The advent of AI presents new possibilities for the mathematical modeling of history, and can even help us achieve psychohistory. But to do so would require decades of painstaking research and analysis. It would also mean overturning the entire field of history, and looking at all of the past with a more critical and nuanced eye. Finally, much of this research and development can only happen in a time of global collapse, when all of humanity is united in creating an open, progressive, and democratic future. In his final message to his students, Jiang Xueqin stresses that the future is not something that happens -- it is something that has to be imagined and fought for.

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Professor Jiang Xueqin explains why humans adopted agriculture.

We now know that there were many consequences due to the transition to agriculture. Hunter-gatherers had an easier, more healthier, and less disease-prone life. So why did humans make this sacrifice? Though there are many explanations, most scholars believe that it was the religious impulse that drove humans to choose a sedentary life, as evidenced by the archaeological sites of Gobekli Tepe, Jericho, and Catal Hoyuk.

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Homo sapiens originated in Africa 300,000 years ago, and for the vast majority of our history we were egalitarian, peaceful, and artistic. So where did concepts of patriarchy, war, and private property come from?The Yamnaya people are nomadic pastoralists who originated in the Eurasian Steppes. They worshipped the Sky Father, and excelled at waging war. Slowly, their culture spread throughout the Steppes before conquering Europe, Iran, and India.

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Why the Bronze Age collapsed.

In the year 1200 BCE the world was globalized and prosperous. Nations shared people, ideas, and goods. A few decades later, the Bronze Age collapsed. Mycenaean Greece and Hittite Anatolia were destroyed, and the Sea Peoples ravaged Egypt. Scholars disagree on what caused this collapse. Some argued it was a northern invasion, while others believed there was a cataclysmic natural disaster. The scholarly consensus now is this systems collapse was brought on by a perfect storm of earthquakes, climate change, and internal revolts. Jiang Xueqin argues that Peter Turchin’s theory of “elite overproduction” is a more convincing theory. Once vibrant empires had devolved into rentier economies, and had become less resilient against external and internal shocks. Rather than being an outlier, the Bronze Age collapse would find itself repeated throughout human history.

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The Greeks were humanity's most creative civilization. Homer's Iliad and Odyssey are timeless classics, Plato's The Republic continues to inspire, and Thucydides are still read by military officers in search of strategic insights.Why were the Greeks so creative?

After the destruction of Mycenaean Greece at the end of the Bronze Age, Greece became divided into thousands of diverse city-states that competed against each other. The alphabet marked a revolution in human cognitive abilities, combining the advantages of an oral culture (imagination, memory, and emotions) with that of a literary culture (logic, discipline, and reflection). Finally, Homer's Iliad marked an intellectual revolution. Homer taught the Greeks empathy and imagination, and thus a new way of being human.

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