Estonia has one of the most impressive economic transformations anywhere on the planet, gaining independence from the USSR and completely overhauling its entire institutional base. While most of the post-Soviet states experienced slow growth and economic stagnation, Estonia instead grew rapidly and became the 'Startup Capital of Europe'. However, while Estonia celebrated its economic successes, cultural issues began bubbling just under the surface, setting the stage for a series of tough decisions to be made by Tallinn today. Will Estonia be able to maintain this level of growth? Will the language laws backfire? And will Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO completely change the defence dynamic within the Baltic states? We ask our panel of experts. 
 - Elisabeth Braw (AEI) - Marko Mihkelson (Chair of Estonian FA Comm) - Steven Pifer (Stanford)  Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:21 PART 2 - 19:32 PART 3 - 36:06 Outro - 1:00:09
 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
 For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

98 - The Geopolitics of Estonia

Three experts, one Story. Each fortnight we host a panel of international experts diving into the biggest geopolitical stories shaping the news both here and overseas. 

Hosted by Michael Hilliard

News

Politics

News Commentary

As economic sanctions continue to tighten their grip on Russia, the nation is forced to seek assistance from whoever it can, turning to China not out of mutual interest but as a necessity. Yet, this support comes at a steep price, heightening concerns in Moscow that it's inadvertently solidifying a new, skewed power dynamic. As China capitalizes on Russia's vulnerabilities, one has to wonder if this is merely business or if there's a deeper play to settle historical grievances. Can Russia untangle itself from this precarious alliance? What are the obstacles in broadening their so-called "no-limits" friendship, and what implications will these have on future Sino-Russian energy deals? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- Keir Giles (Chatham House)
- Gavin Wilde (CEIP)
- Temur Umarov (CEIP)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 04:07
PART 2 - 23:47
PART 3 - 38:47
Outro - 58:10

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

120 - The Forced Friendship: Russia's Uneasy Alliance with China

As President Prabowo Subianto prepares to enter the presidency, the Indonesian military stands at a crucial juncture, navigating both traditional and emerging defence challenges. With Prabowo's extensive military background and his previous five years at the helm of the armed forces, this term is particularly poised to potentially reshape strategies around procurement, international agreements, and even the core tenets of the Indonesian military itself. This week, we delve into the evolving dynamics within the Indonesian military as it grapples with modernisation and regional security pressures, and examine the potential shifts and tough decisions likely to fall onto his desk during the next five years. So why is this term likely the most important for the military? What do Prabowo's purchases and policy shifts tell us about his future policies, and will Indonesia finally take its place as a significant military power within Southeast Asia? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- John Blaxland (ANU) 
- Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research) 
- Collin Koh (RSIS)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:03
PART 2 - 18:47
PART 3 - 44:05
Outro - 1:03:10

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/dis...
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

119 - Indonesia's Defence Dilemma

Tensions are on the rise between San Marino and Italy, revealing a potential crisis on the Italian Peninsula that many analysts are missing. This situation, seemingly minor, hints at deep-seated unrest that could destabilize the region. We delve into the nuances of this brewing conflict, urging a reevaluation of its possible impact on European stability. Through expert insights, we aim to uncover the undercurrents of this overlooked crisis, highlighting the urgency of recognizing and preparing for the ramifications of this unfolding discord.

On the panel this week:
- James Ker-Lindsay (LSE)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 01:30
Outro - 14:37

RELEASED: APRIL 1st 2024.

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

118 - Wargaming: San Marino vs. Italy

Delving into the shadowy realm of the small arms trade, we unravel a web of clandestine dealings and backroom deals that span the entire globe, arming insurgents, equipping terrorists, and bolstering criminal networks, thus creating some of the world's most volatile regions. As these weapons cross borders, both through legal and illegal means, their paths become increasingly complicated, yet the underlying fundamentals beneath the trade remain stubbornly rigid. In this deep dive, we seek to unpack the trends that drive the industry, identify which markets are currently hotbeds of small arms sales, and explore the nuanced dynamics that completely change the procurement patterns of cartels or regional insurgency groups. We unpack a hypothetical scenario of a theoretical insurgency group to demonstrate the unexpected challenges faced by these groups, with a panel of industry experts:

On the panel this week:
- Nicholas Marsh (PRIO)
- Franz J. Marty (Swiss Institute for Global Affairs) 
- Mark Bromley (SIPRI)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:25
PART 2 - 24:47
PART 3 - 44:32
Outro - 1:00:34

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

117 - Equipping Your Insurgency: A Guide to the Small Arms Market

As Haiti grapples with an unprecedented crisis, the spectre of state collapse under the weight of rampant gang violence has cast a long shadow over its future. The Caribbean nation, once a beacon of freedom and resistance, now finds itself mired in a power struggle that pits armed gangs against each other in a bid for dominance of the nation, leaving civilians caught in the crossfire. Amid this chaos, the international community watches with bated breath as plans for an intervention loom on the horizon, sparking debates on sovereignty, the efficacy of foreign assistance, and the potential for lasting peace. Yet, the success of such an intervention hinges on a myriad of factors, including the willingness of local actors to cooperate and the ability of external forces to navigate the complex socio-political terrain of Haiti. With the stakes higher than ever, the question remains: Can the proposed intervention quell the violence and restore stability to this beleaguered nation, or will the chaos simply continue? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- Marlene L. Daut (Yale Uni.)
- Jess DiPierro Obert (Investigative Journalist)
- Evan Ellis (US Army War College)
- Chris Sabatini (Chatham House)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:47
PART 2 - 20:37
PART 3 - 35:52
PART 4 - 52:17
Outro - 1:10:56

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at:  https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

98 - The Geopolitics of Estonia

Download our free app to listen on your phone