The Global Citizen

Is Vladimir Putin supremely confident, or is he worried about the war in Ukraine? Western intelligence seems of two minds about Putin's thinking, on one hand dismissing his bluster but also believing he will only stop when defeated. In essence, Putin may think that so long as Ukraine cannot win, Russia cannot lose; and Biden may believe that so long as Ukraine cannot lose, Russia cannot win. This wide gap promises a war without end.

Taiwan is the central issue obstructing normal US-China relations. Despite US professions of support for the "One China" principle, Beijing sees US violations of that principle. In this episode, the focus is on remarks by a senior Chinese America watcher, Prof. Jia Qingguo. Though a longtime supporter of US-China engagement, Jia reports on mounting Chinese concern about US policy on Taiwan and changing Chinese perspectives on nuclear weapons as well. Jia's comments bode ill for the immediate future.

Assumptions in the US and elsewhere about "no limits" to Chinese aid to Russia in the Ukraine war have long been unfounded. Chinese self-interest, not US threats or Russian desires, have guided China's war policies. But China's stance could change, most likely if the US continues to upgrade its political and military support of Taiwan.

In this episode I pause to take stock of the Ukraine war: what we know and don't know. Most importantly, we don't know what it will take to bring this war to a close, or at least to a cease-fire. We know about about the costs of the war for both sides, but not the tipping point at which interest in negotiations will emerge. Are we headed to a stalemate or an at least partial Ukraine success in its upcoming counteroffensive? In the end, war weariness may be the crucial factor in stopping the fighting.

US officials complain that they are having a hard time making contact with their Chinese counterparts. That is clearly the consequence of the falling out over the Chinese balloon incident. A recent speech by treasury secretary Janet Yellen affirmed US interest in a "constructive relationship," but the speech fell short in reassurances to China about economic decoupling. US ambassador to China Nicholas Burns made more positive statements about resuming dialogue, and was rewarded with a meeting in Beijing with China's foreign minister. But Burns will have a hard time persuading Congress members of the value of consistent, non-hostile communications with China.

The civil war within the military in Sudan is a betrayal of its people's hope for a peaceful democratic transition after 30 years of murderous rule by Omar al-Bashir. At this time, the best the two competing generals have accomplished is brief cease-fires. Prospects for a power-sharing arrangements look bleak, and for democratic rule even bleaker.

The US government is seeking either to ban or force the sale of the popular Chinese-owned TikTok app. But the case against TikTok neglects two matters: the US government's own spying on citizens under cover of law, and the questionable political motives that seem to dictate the specific effort to kill TikTok. A middle-ground solution is available--allowing TikTok to continue operating but ensuring that its database resides in the US--but the Biden administration has lost interest in it.

The visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Beijing couldn't have gone better from China's point of view, since he didn't raise a fuss about human rights, a peace plan for Ukraine, or Taiwan. Xi Jinping gave Macron nothing of political value. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who accompanied Macron, was far more principled, but her views probably counted for less than Macron's.

The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on global warming reinforces the scientific consensus that by 2030 humanity must either cut greenhouse gas emissions in half or face climate catastrophes that will worsen living conditions for everyone. “The climate time bomb is ticking,” says the UN secretary-general. In this 75th episode, I review the IPCC report, finding little reason for optimism even in cases of climate adaptation and mitigation.

Haviv Gur, Senior Analyst with the Times of Israel, comment on the current impasse over the Netanyahu coalition's judicial reform legislation. He points to possible points of compromise but also to the political obstacles to actually achieving one. Gur also assesses the Israeli military's situation as many reservists have stepped away from their duty in protest of the far right's proposals. Finally, Gur discusses President Biden's intervention in Israeli politics. (Unfortunately, an electrical outage at Gur's home cut short the conversation. My apologies to listeners.)