Wed, Jan 7, 2026

We are now fewer than 30 days from a pivotal shift in global security architecture. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) – the last remaining bilateral nuclear leash between the US and Russia – expires on February 5, 2026.

In Venezuela, rhetoric has turned into hard numbers. President Donald Trump stated Venezuela would hand over 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude, explicitly noting the proceeds "will be controlled by me." This marks a shift from diplomacy to direct resource appropriation.

The acting Venezuelan government, under heavy US pressure, appears to have capitulated to the transfer as a condition of stability.

Meanwhile, the "buy Greenland" narrative has hardened into a security posture. US officials are reportedly keeping military options on the table to secure the territory. Denmark’s response has sharpened, warning that further pressure could end NATO at a moment when the alliance is already fragile.

Wall Street opens today obsessing over the digital realm, seemingly ignoring the submarines in the Atlantic.

Total investment in AI infrastructure will surpass $527 billion for the year.

And it starts with a perverted robot.

Elon Musk’s Grok has closed a $20 billion Series E funding round following reports of Grok being used to generate nonconsensual sexual abuse content at scale.

Tech fatigue is showing up in Asian markets (Nikkei pulled back overnight) and regulatory hammers are falling in the West.

While global GDP is forecast at 2.8%, this is propped up by AI infrastructure that creates no jobs. Labor markets remain unchanged. We are seeing a "stagnant jobs, stable prices" equilibrium that leaves the average voter behind.

In Washington, the midterm battlefield shifts into focus.

Republicans are defending a razor-thin House majority. Historical trends suggest a swing of around 12 seats away from the President's party.

The red team is banking on energy abundance to counter inflation.

The Oxford Analytica forecast notes the potential for "No Kings" protests to become a flashpoint, organized around concerns of executive overreach – fears stoked by the aggressive posture on Venezuela and Greenland.

Physical Sovereignty is being consolidated through old-world coercion, while Digital Sovereignty is being consolidated through massive capex spending. The administration seems intent on controlling both the barrel and the bit.

The markets are betting on stability (rate cuts to 3.25%, steady growth), while the geopolitical architecture is betting on volatility (treaty expiration, naval standoffs, territorial disputes).

History suggests they cannot both be right.

Tue, Jan 6, 2026

Markets typically price checks and balances as a risk premium. Debate creates friction. Friction slows capital deployment. Yesterday, the US Senate effectively announced a zero-friction policy.

Despite the administration bypassing the Gang of Eight to execute a regime change in Venezuela, the Senate GOP signaled they are unfazed by the procedural bypass. The reaction from the street was telling: S&P futures held steady. Why? Because Wall Street loves a CEO who doesn't have to wait for board approval.

The Legislative Branch has voluntarily entered receivership. They have ceded operational control to the Executive in exchange for insulation from the decision-making process.

The most significant disclosure yesterday did not come from the White House, but from Senator Cynthia Lummis. In explaining her support for being bypassed, she stated: "I’m glad the president didn’t try to talk to Congress about it first... because this place leaks like a sieve."

And to avoid triggering the debt covenants of the Constitution (specifically the War Powers Resolution), the Senate is engaging in aggressive semantic accounting.

Senator James Lankford provided the new guidance: US involvement does not rise to the level of war powers unless the US intends to "occupy, dominate, control."

This is a critical redefinition of the asset class.

Old Standard: Conflict = War.

New Standard: Extraction = Law Enforcement.

Today is January 6th. Five years ago, the threat to the Capitol was physical and chaotic. Today, the threat is administrative and orderly.

The Senate has not been conquered. It has been streamlined. Senator John Kennedy’s comment that he expects no changes to the GOP vote on War Powers confirms the restructuring is complete. The Legislature has successfully pivoted from a co-equal branch to a silent partner.

It is a quieter arrangement. It is more efficient for the markets. And it effectively liquidates the overhead of a Republic.

The Trade: Buy The Executive. Write down Article I to zero.

Mon, Jan 5, 2026

The acquisition has closed. Now comes the integration.

On Saturday, US forces seized the asset.

By Sunday, the appraisers were already booking tickets.

The market’s reaction this morning confirms exactly how Wall Street views this operation: not as a war, but as a messy, expensive corporate restructuring.

Here's the breakdown.

The trending trade on the board was Chevron.

Shares of the energy giant jumped roughly 8% in premarket trading. The logic is simple: Chevron is the only US oil major that never left Venezuela. While Exxon and ConocoPhillips packed up decades ago during the nationalization waves, Chevron stayed in the building, keeping a skeletal staff and playing the long game.

Donald Trump was explicit in his Palm Beach press conference: “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies... go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure... and start making money.”

But the turnaround play faces headwinds.

And then there's the governance issue.

It turns out management didn't tell the Board about the merger.

Marco Rubio described the invasion as a law enforcement action to Congress, concealing the true nature of the plan. As Representative Gregory Meeks put it: "He absolutely lied to Congress."

Markets usually hate political instability, but they seem to have priced this in as executive privilege. The S&P 500 futures are flat, and the Dow is holding steady. The Board is angry, but the CEO has the votes.

Asian markets rallied hard overnight. The Nikkei jumped 3% to a near-record high, driven largely by tech buying. But back home, the narrative is fracturing.

Tesla is down 2.6% premarket after reporting falling sales for the second year in a row.

There is a dark irony here. Elon Musk was a primary financier of the administration that just secured the world’s largest oil reserves. He is winning the geopolitical game, but losing the car business.

If buying Chevron feels like chasing a headline, Berkshire Hathaway feels like a safer haven. The conglomerate is the largest shareholder in Chevron, but their portfolio is diversified enough to survive if the Venezuela play gets bogged down in guerrilla warfare or fire-sale barrels.

The coup accomplished its mission. The oil is safe, for now. And the market is still quietly buying gold, just in case the turnaround play turns back to Florida.

Welcome to the new fiscal year.

Sun, Jan 04, 2026

The acquisition is complete. Now comes the restructuring.

Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado released a letter yesterday calling Maduro’s capture the hour of the citizens. She framed the US intervention as a means to an end: the restoration of democracy. But hours later, President Trump corrected the thesis. "We're going to run the country," he declared.

Machado thought she was getting a liberation. She got a management change.

The reality is that Venezuela is not being treated as a sovereign nation in crisis, but as a distressed asset with the world's largest proven oil reserves. And a look at the capitalization table of the current US administration suggests the new management has very specific plans for that inventory.

Seven of the top ten donors in the 2024 election backed Donald Trump. They didn't buy a candidate. They bought a business plan.

Elon Musk runs an empire of combustion. SpaceX rockets drink methane and kerosene; xAI’s illegal Memphis turbines burn gas. The Gigafactories run on an electrical grid that is 64% fossil fuel. He needs cheap energy to reach Mars. Now, the administration he financed controls the spigot.

Neocolonialism doesn't need to plant a flag. It just needs to secure the supply chain. Trump was clear in his previous remarks: "When I left, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over. But now we're buying oil from Venezuela, so we're making a dictator very rich."

That error has been corrected. The dictator is gone. The dividends are pending.

The market metabolized the regime change with the cold speed of a C-17. Headlines have already shifted from the extraction of a dictator to the logistics of running a vassal state. Washington’s new policy will center on oil production, and a delegation of US investors will visit Venezuela in March. Some vultures fly first class.

The shroud of democracy is slipping off the map. World leaders are no longer playing diplomacy. They are playing Risk. China condemned the operation not because they love Maduro, but because they are staring at a $100 billion write-down on loans, infrastructure, and future contracts that are now effectively void. Brazil is moving troops to the border not to fight, but to contain the fallout.

The hour of the citizens has passed. The board meeting has begun.

Sat, Jan 3, 2026

The year is three days old, and a pressure campaign has turned into a removal operation.

Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been "captured and flown out" of the country. Residents in Caracas reported explosions and low-flying aircraft overnight. Yesterday, the administration struck a dock. Today, it claimed the head of state. The US has removed the obstacle. Now, it owns the power vacuum.

In Silicon Valley, the removal process is broken. xAI’s Grok is facing a reckoning in Europe after reports that the model generated sexualized images of minors. French prosecutors called the content "manifestly illegal." The company’s defense was a hallucination: Grok cited the "ENFORCE Act of 2025" as governing law. That law does not exist. It passed the Senate but never the House. The AI invented a statute to justify its own output.

While the US legal system is slow, others are not. The real risk for Elon Musk isn't a Washington subpoena. It's a New Delhi arrest warrant. India warned platforms that "responsible officers" will be held liable for non-compliance. Musk is safe in San Francisco, but as the CEO of a technology that churns out sexual abuse material, his travel itinerary just became complicated.

Musk will add this to his pile of lawsuits and mounting regulatory pressure, highlighted by a recent €120 million EU fine under the Digital Services Act (DSA).

In Omaha, the transition of power was handled with trust. Warren Buffett officially handed the reins of Berkshire Hathaway to Greg Abel, a designated successor for over four years.

"There's no secret formula that only CEOs have," Buffett said yesterday. "I'd rather have Greg handling my money than any of the top investment advisors or any of the top CEOs in the United States. He knows business."

Wall Street closed on Friday unaware of the weekend’s extraction. Stocks finished the week higher, pricing in a world that no longer exists. The hint at the price of regime change arrives Sunday night when oil futures open.

Domestically, the courts are widening the lane for conflict. A federal appeals court ruled against California’s open-carry ban, stating the law violated the Second Amendment.

Power left the building in three different ways this weekend. Buffett walked out. Grok is being shamed out. Maduro was flown out.

The market closed Friday pricing in the walk. It opens Monday pricing in the void.

Fri, Jan 2, 2026

Wall Street opened 2026 reaching for chips. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq 1%, Nvidia and Alphabet both up more than 2%.

Tesla surrendered its EV crown to BYD after a 15.6% sales drop in Q4, marking its second year of decline. The market looked at the data, punished the carmaker, and pivoted to the hardware with pricing power.

While Austin stumbled, the rest of the world bid up the plumbing. The FTSE 100 hit a record above 10,000, driven by miners digging for the copper and silver that electrification requires. Silver resumed its chaos: up 4.8% after Wednesday's 9.4% drop, its fifth straight session of 5%-plus swings.

This economic gravity is forcing Washington to break its own character. The administration talks incessantly about containment, yet it quietly granted TSMC a license to import US chipmaking tools into its Nanjing, China facility. The rhetoric is America First. The reality is supply chain preservation. The trade war has exemptions.

Donald Trump delayed some tariff hikes as inflation lingers. Meanwhile, he warned Iran that the US is "locked and loaded" if security forces kill protesters, the sixth day of demonstrations, at least seven dead.

In Venezuela, the administration confirmed its first strike on land: a dock Trump said was loading drug boats. Sanctions hit a Tehran-Caracas drone network the same day.

In New York, Zohran Mamdani took office, vowing a democratic socialist agenda with his hand on the Quran and framing himself as a foil to the White House.

In House testimony, Special Counsel Jack Smith revealed a private truth behind the public act: Trump acknowledged he lost the 2020 election, contradicting four years of rallies.

Dominance is heading east to start the new year. American manufacturing lost its crown to a Chinese car company that makes cheap batteries. The US is shipping innovation to China. Some tariffs are on hold. And buried in a transcript, the admission that four years of rallies tried to drown out: "Can you believe I lost to this fucking guy?"

America is still rich. It just isn’t automatically first.

Thu, Jan 1, 2026

Xi Jinping sat at a desk in Beijing and called reunification with Taiwan “unstoppable,” coinciding with his live-fire drills around the island, seeking to end its robust, multi-party democracy with free and fair elections, strong civil liberties, and peaceful transfers of power.

22 million Taiwanese people disagree. Pro-unification sentiment sits at 6%. The government passed a record $40 billion defense budget and signed an $11.1 billion arms deal with the US. The economic math is also a wall: a conflict would cost the global economy $10 trillion, a 10% hit to global GDP. Xi wants the geopolitical win without the bankruptcy price. “Unstoppable” is branding for a dilemma he cannot solve.

Vladimir Putin is running the same play. He told troops he believes in victory on day 1,407 of the war. He has matched the duration of the WWII Eastern Front with a fraction of the result. Russian forces trade conscripts for millimeters. 158,143 Russian deaths have been verified, while intelligence puts total casualties at 1.1 million. The narrative requires distraction, like false claims of a drone attack, to obscure the body count.

Xi and Putin are banking on the mechanic that just failed in Chicago: declare the outcome and hope the volume hides the math. Trump claimed law and order, but suffered a procedural defeat. Beijing claims history is a law of nature. Moscow claims victory is a matter of time. But as Washington learned, can only occupy the narrative for so long before you have to clear the street.

Here's to the power of democracy, justice, and hope.

Happy new year.

Wed, Dec 31, 2025

Russia accused Ukraine of launching 91 drones at Vladimir Putin's residence in Novgorod on Sunday night. The Kremlin provided no evidence. The Institute for the Study of War found no corroborating footage. Ukraine called it "a complete fabrication."

Trump said Putin told him about the attack in a phone call. "I was very angry," he said, before acknowledging it "possibly" didn't happen. The Kremlin says it will "toughen its negotiating position." This came two days after Zelenskyy met Trump at Mar-a-Lago and both sides claimed progress.

Overnight, Russian drones struck residential buildings in Odesa, leaving parts of the city without heat or power. That attack required no fabrication.

The Fed's December meeting minutes released on Tuesday confirmed what the 9-3 vote suggested: the central bank is at war with itself. It was the most fractured decision since 2019. Even among the nine who voted yes, a few said the decision was "finely balanced." Several worried that cutting could be "misinterpreted" as going soft on inflation.

The divisions will deepen in 2026 as hawks rotate into voting seats. Powell's chair term expires in May. Trump said he'll name a successor in January. Kevin Hassett is the favorite. The president has made clear he wants rates at 1 percent or lower, inflation be damned.

The S&P 500 fell 0.14 percent Tuesday to 6,896.24 – still up 17 percent for the year, a third straight year of double-digit returns. The dollar is down nearly 10 percent for 2025, its steepest decline since 2017. The weak greenback supercharged commodities all year.

Meta acquired Manus for more than $2 billion. The deal closed in ten days. Manus builds AI agents that screen resumes, plan trips, and analyze portfolios, with $100 million ARR eight months after launch. The wrinkle: Manus was founded in Beijing before relocating to Singapore. Meta says there will be "no continuing Chinese ownership."

The year ends with equities at highs and the dollar at lows. Gold beat Bitcoin. Oil collapsed while silver doubled. The Fed is dividing, The Kremlin is distracting, and the CME is raising margins on anything that moves.

In New York, skies are cloudy on the last trading day of the year.

Tue, Dec 30, 2025

The year is closing with a reversal no one saw coming. General Motors is hitting all-time highs, up 55% for 2025 – its best performance since emerging from bankruptcy in 2009. Five straight months of gains. Aggressive buybacks, consistent earnings beats, and looser emissions standards under Trump. Tesla, the stock that was supposed to represent the future, is up just 17%.

The market spent all year betting on artificial intelligence and data centers. It's ending with Detroit beating Silicon Valley.

Meanwhile, the infrastructure bets keep stacking. SoftBank is buying DigitalBridge for $4 billion. Nvidia completed a $5 billion investment in Intel. Waymo is in funding talks at $100 billion. But the rally that was supposed to validate them has gone quiet on empty volume.

The S&P's 17% gain trails most of the world. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 30.6%. Canada's TSX is up 28.3%. Japan's Nikkei is up 26.7%.

The MSCI All Country World Index fell Monday for the first time in eight sessions. The streak broke on the thinnest volume of the year. The S&P 500 drifted down 0.35%. Nvidia fell 1.2%, Tesla 3.3%, Palantir 2.4%. With investors largely done positioning into year-end, what’s left is a market asking itself whether the rally that defined 2025 has anywhere left to go.

If equities look expensive, metals didn’t offer refuge Monday. Silver touched $80 overnight before collapsing 8.7% on raised margin requirements, its worst drop since 2021. Gold fell 4.6%. Both rebounded sharply Tuesday, but the whipsaw exposed how crowded the trade has become.

The dollar has slid 9.5% against major currencies, its steepest decline since 2017. Oil jumped 2.4% to $58 as geopolitics tightened across three fronts.

The year everyone thought was about AI is closing with General Motors at all-time highs and Nvidia dragging indexes lower. Investors quietly profit-take away from crowded bets and lie in wait for the new year.

Two trading days remain.

Mon, Dec 29, 2025

Volodymyr Zelenskyy left Trump Island on Sunday saying Ukraine and the United States had agreed on the military elements of a 20-point peace plan and were 90% of the way to a deal. The remaining 10 percent is the hard part: territory. Any concessions, he said, would require a referendum. "It's their land, not the land of one person. It's the land of our nation."

The meeting came one day after Russian missiles struck Kyiv, and hours after Kyiv struck a Russian oil refinery. Before meeting with Zelenskyy, Donald Trump chatted with Vladimir Putin and emerged from the call claiming that the man bombing Ukraine "wants to see Ukraine succeed." Putin, for his part, continues to demand Ukraine withdraw from the remaining Donbas territories still under Kyiv's control.

American markets are closing 2025 near record highs. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 6,929.94, up 17.8% for the year and marking its third consecutive year of double-digit returns. The dollar tells a different story: the index has fallen about 9.5% against major currencies, its steepest annual decline since 2017. That weakness, driven by Fed rate cuts and tariff-induced volatility, has supercharged commodities priced in greenbacks.

Silver hit $83.62 an ounce early Monday before whipsawing into the mid-$70s and back. Even after the turbulence, the precious metal is up about 180% for the year. Copper surged toward $13,000 a ton in London. Gold, trading around $4,500, is on track for its best year since 1979.

In Silicon Valley, AI startups have amassed a $150 billion funding cushion. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi called portions of the market a huge, insane bubble, noting that companies worth billions with zero revenue are now commonplace. "Twelve months from now," he predicted, "it'll be much, much, much worse."

The year ends with American equities at highs and the dollar at lows. Peace 90 percent agreed. Silver up 180 percent. Territory contested on every front. The Donbas. The Taiwan Strait. The credit markets. The courtroom. And the same question everywhere: Whose land, and who decides?

Three trading days remain.