The Hoon

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

It included regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman and discussions about climate change science distrust, National’s election policy to cut foreign aid and the near identical fiscal policies offered by National and Labour.

Bernard’s three things of note this week were:

* Labour’s fiscal track is virtually the same as National’s, which means it can’t fix the underfunding it accuses National of in health, transport etc.

* The Greens & Opportunity face a tough choice. If they join a Labour-led coalition they risk being tied to a do-nothing Government.

* If they want to get rid of the current coalition, they could do a supply and confidence deal and sit on the cross benches in opposition on everything else.

Peter’s three things of this week were:

* Peter recommended a deep analysis on Zionism and what it means in The Atlantic (gift). He does not always agree with the slant taken by the writer but the last line is: ‘The work of Zionism will remain incomplete until Jews and Arabs live in peace in the land that both have the right to call home.’

* ⁠Keep an eye on the Russian pneumonic plague death and associated cover-up. Did Russia ever really withdraw its bio-weapons programme. Peter has an anecdote about a friend’s husband who died young after leading US initiative to clean up Soviet bioweapons.

* Death of Jeffrey Archer — total ratbag. Wonderful obituary in The Times (gift) which says rather nicely: ‘His elastic relationship with the truth made telling his life’s story a tricky task, since it became clear that nothing Archer ever said about himself could be accepted without independent corroboration.’

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

Listeners’ Choice nominations can be made at the NZ Podcast Awards site between now and 9th October, and then voting on the Listeners’ Choice award is open between 12th October - 26th November.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

Thank you Maurizio Piglia, Brian Rathbone, Ken Howell, Tim, Tony Pomfret, and many others for tuning into my live video with Elliot Crossan! Join me for my next live video in the app.

I had a great chat this evening with the University of Otago’s Michael Swanson about MMP and vote-splitting after he produced this excellent substack post:

The Bastardisation of MMP

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

It included regular guest Cathrine Dyer, plus special guests Auckland University Emeritus Professor Jane Kelsey, intensive care specialist Dr David Galler, who also publishes this substack david Galler, and Dr Malcolm Mulholland.

Jane talked about the challenge to New Zealand’s FTA with the EU by Both ENDS because of New Zealand’s climate policy backsliding.

David and Malclom talked about the ongoing crises in the health system because of decades of underfunding. They are doing The Roady on Public Health.

Bernard’s three things of note this week were:

* The Government and RBNZ are underestimating the chilling effect on the economy of falling house prices and falling real wages.

* Labour’s commitment to cap the size of Government at 33% of GDP means it can’t deal with our housing and health crises because Crown spending is already at 33% and an ageing population naturally pushes up NZ Super and health spending. Staying under the cap could only be done with massive cuts to other benefits and/or education spending.

* It’s great to see the climate backsliding come home to roost in the Both ENDS’ application to cancel NZ’s FTA with the EU. We’re in the ‘find out’ stage of ‘f*** around and find out’ strategy.

Peter’s three things of this week were:

1.⁠ ⁠Daniel Dale of CNN on his 10-years of factchecking Donald Trump: ‘His relentless dishonesty has become a central feature of US and world politics.’

2.⁠ ⁠Russia threatens Europe over Kaliningrad. FT-$ (gift): “Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should Nato countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country,” the document stated.

3.⁠ ⁠An astounding White House statement that immigration from majority Muslim countries has fallen 96 percent from 2024.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

Listeners’ Choice nominations can be made at the NZ Podcast Awards site between now and 9th October, and then voting on the Listeners’ Choice award is open between 12th October - 26th November.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with regular guests Robert Patman and Cathrine Dyer, plus special guest:

* Former NZ Herald Editor Gavin Ellis, who talked about his article on the Official Information Act, the future of media and Nicky Hager’s new book Dirty Work.

During the show:

Bernard mentioned this chart on the recent collapse in visits to US mainstream news sites

Gavin mentioned this example of officials ‘lying in unison’ from 2003 and Bernard pointed to this Audrey Young article in the NZ Herald on the issue. He also talked about a lack of party policies on media so far in the campaign. He wrote about that here

Peter talked about Donald Trump and Javier Milei attacking the UN at the UN, referring to this article in The Guardian.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

National, Labour, NZ First, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have all released policies for major state intervention in the supermarkets sector to break up or challenge the duopoly of Foodstuffs (Pak n’ Save, New World & Four Square) and Woolworths in recent weeks.

National and NZ First have proposed breaking up Foodstuffs into separate competing Pak n’ Save and New World/Four square chains, while leaving Woolworths intact.

Labour has proposed forcing both Foodstuffs and Woolworths to run their wholesale operations independently from their retail stores in a structural separation that echoes the breakup of Telecom into Chorus and Spark.

The Greens have proposed to break up the supermarkets duopoly and force the sale of 120 stores and distribution centres from both Foodstuffs and Woolworths to a new state-owned competitor called KiwiMart, at a cost to buy and invest in the new operation of $2.8 billion.

Te Pāti Māori has proposed providing a $800-$1000 per year tax credit for people earning less than $60,000 per year to be able to afford to buy eight weeks worth of kai. It would cost $2.8 billion a year in lost tax revenues. It has also proposed the Crown invest $100 million to support the creation of Māori run competitors to the duopoly.

I discussed Labour’s proposal on Monday with Labour Commerce and Consumer Affairs Spokesperson Arena Williams and Monopoly Watch NZ founder Tex Edwards.

The full discussion is in the video above.

Tex’s position on what is needed to foster real competition that generates lower prices for consumers includes this checklist of necessary conditions:

* Distribution centre competition: Most competitive tension occurs at the distribution-centre level. It is inevitable that new centres will need to be built.

* Scale competition: Modelling shows that a minimum of approximately 18–22% revenue market share is needed to deliver a pathway to cost-out reductions.

* Geographic competition: Competition is currently thwarted because whole suburbs and districts are served by only one banner. This needs to be resolved.

* Data break-up and open access: It is 2026 — data and digital access are now as important as geographic distribution, particularly with the emergence of robotic, AI-driven distribution ecosystems built for direct home delivery in the dry-goods segment.

* Supplier designation There is supplier appetite for change within the existing market structure, and part of the excess margin is shared with the supermarkets. Given the well- documented problems the third challenger, The Warehouse, had with suppliers, this issue is critical.

* Fresh capital New stakeholders are needed to drive change and prevent inertia. Without fresh capital, the existing status quo will simply resume.

* Challenger branding Consumer inertia is always a challenge for new entrants. Clearly explaining different market structures is crucial to winning scale and efficiencies.

* Like-for-like segmental competition: The Sense report outlines two proposals for a Foodstuffs break-up. One option amounts to a behind-the-scenes voluntary undertaking that is too generous to the Pak’nSave owners, who would go on to dominate the budget segment. Pak’nSave needs to compete with a like-for-like offering — which is why this banner needs to be broken up. Foodstuffs’ own 2006 submissions confirmed this point.

* Pathway to third-party experts: The Commerce Commission has a department that has been studying supermarket competition for over six years and has relevant expertise. It is essential that this team be given the time and resources to determine the best possible way forward.

Here’s the Monopoly Watch post on that: Te Pāti Māori policy document

In my view, neither the Labour or National plans allow for the creation of a big-enough new operator with access to equally cheap wholesale supplies, or are able to break the local monopolies held by Pak n’ Save stores in particular. National’s plan doesn’t break up the wholesale arms from the retail arms of either Foodstuffs or Woolworths.

Labour’s plan doesn’t create the large-enough new competitor to Pak’ n Save stores to make a difference. It is relying on existing New World, Four Square and other independents scaling up. I think that would result in slow and patchy competition that leaves the Pak’ n Save stores with their local monopolies intact.

The difference between this plan and Labour’s successful intervention in telecommunications was that it required regulation of some prices (interconnection fees), regulation of transferrable mobile numbers, state investment in UFB, and the sale of (arguably) cheap mobile spectrum that enabled the creation of a true and eventually large third competitor of Two Degrees, which was able to compete the mobile prices of Spark and Vodafone (now OneNZ) lower over a decade. Tex was a co-founder of Two Degrees.

The Greens’ proposal is closer to the necessary conditions of a big-enough competitor to Pak n’ Save with enough capital to compete and grow, and with the ability to break the local monopolies. Although there is a risk KiwiMart simply takes over the Pak’ n Save monopolies of the stores it buys, and/or runs the chain to maximise dividends, similar to the state-controlled Genesis, Meridian & Mercury.

I aim to do more of these Election Hoons on this and other topics.

I welcome suggestions in the comments below. Paying subscribers are able to comment.

Become a paying subscriber to see the full detail and analysis in my regular emails, and get access to all my videos and podcasts. Here’s an introductory offer for the first year for new subscribers. Paying subscribers support me to do the work and get it out through my various public channels, including YouTube, RNZ, 1News and NZ Herald.

cheers

Bernard

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with regular guests Robert Patman and Cathrine Dyer, plus special guests:

* Technology commentator, futurist and substacker Ben Reid to talk about AI, data centres and future of everything; and,

* WWF-NZ Climate law and policy advisor Teall Crossen to talk about climate dis/mis-information.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with regular guests Robert Patman and Cathrine Dyer, plus special guests:

* Columnist on international affairs for The Guardian, Paul Taylor, who talked about the rise of AFD in Germany, and the diplomatic situation around Gaza and Europe; and,

* Investigative journalist for Stuff, Paula Penfold, who wrote a Must Read article this week for Stuff on the polycrisis in our hospital system. Her reporting on the hospital crisis also powered this week’s episode of ‘Paddy Gower has Issues’ for 3Now. She publishes her own substack called Not The News - with Paula Penfold

This week’s skateboarding dog story was this extraordinary video of Philippines' Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro, who was speaking up for smaller nations and international law at a forum in Korea when a staff member handed him a note from a Chinese official about the South China Sea.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with special guests, including:

* International affairs expert Dr Geoffrey Miller, the author of the Gulf States Insights substack, talking about the recent Mecca Agreement; and,

* Andy Reisinger, an Associate Professor at Australian National University, and lead author of the mitigation chapter of a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP)report titled: Limiting Overshoot, which finds the climate is set to overshoot the 1.5°C of global warming the world agreed not to go over, and will need to cool it down ASAP.

Regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman took a break this week, but will be back next year.

During the podcast, we pointed to Geoffrey’s most recent piece:

Also, Peter referred to this New Yorker podcast during the discussion:

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-host Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics. Bernard was taking a break.

In this week’s edition:

* Author and polymath Turi Munthe was on from Rome to talk about his new book: Why We Think What We Think: The Unexpected Origins of Our Deepest Beliefs. It will make you think. If you like the work of Yuval Noah Hariri you will love Turi.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard