Among the watchouts from the Iran War is the supreme challenge of getting key inputs for growers through the Strait of Hormuz.  This has caused price spikes and supply uncertainty during planting season- a crucial period of fertilizer use.

Josh Linville of StoneX has spent nearly a quarter century tracking the fertilizer market. He said the situation is terrible in terms of price, but there also have been some overly dramatic reporting. As with many big issues, the truth lies somewhere in between. 

“Affordability and availability are two completely different terms,” said Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer for StoneX, a prominent financial services network that began more than a century ago. “From an affordability standpoint yes, it’s terribly overpriced. But from an availability standpoint, based on what we think we need for imports to finish out this fertilizer year, based on what we know has come and we think has come through March, we only need about a million ton for April and May. But again, good can go to bad very quickly.”