Ambassador Rahm Emanuel joined me today to cover the waterfront of issues (including, of course, the nuclear triad and the future of the Navy):
HH: Special guest on this Thursday morning. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, most recently ambassador to Japan. Before that, of course, two-term mayor of Chicago. Before that, chief of staff to President Obama. Before that, long-time member of Congress. Before that, political director in the Clinton White House. Basically, he’s done everything including being an investment banker. And I’m very glad to have you join me, Mr. Ambassador. Where do I find you today?
HH: Ah, good place to relax. Before I get to the serious stuff, I want to ask what your reaction was when you learned a new Pope was from Chicago.
RE: Well, as all good Jewish boys, I was proud to know that his mother was a fan of the Chicago Cubs.
HH: oh, but he’s a White Sox fan.
RE: That’s my point. Like his mother is the most important in that process.
RE: There’s a lot, on a serious note, I actually was communicating this week with Cardinal Cupich, who is on his way to Hiroshima, where he’s from Chicago, obviously, on his way. And we were talking, and I was talking about the Pope and how much hope and how much pride people in the city of Chicago have in a hometown kid that done well.
HH: You know, I’m pretty excited. I’m Roman Catholic. I’m just a little big younger than he is. I want to know what’s in his album collections, did he watch Laugh-In. I just want to know the cultural stuff, right? So if you see him, tell him he’s got an interview over here. Serious stuff. What is the number one external existential threat to the United States?
RE: Well, you say that. I would say external, I actually think is internal. And I say that, you know, I wrote a piece for the Washington Post when I was wrapping up being ambassador. What I learned about China and the region, what I learned about Japan, and being away from America, what I also learned about America, the good, the bad, and that ugly. And I actually think the biggest challenge externally is if we’re not strong at home, and I don’t mean in he kumbaya sense, although that’s a portion of it, we can’t actually deal and deter all the external threats. So I actually do believe that the biggest external threat we have is at home, which is the strength and the capacity for us to both be politically, economically, and strategically successful in calling on all of America’s strengths. So as you think it’s meant…
HH: I’ll come back around to the internal divisions in the country, but I was wondering if you would say China. Do you think China is our biggest threat?
RE: No…there’s no doubt, because I think when Xi becomes president, the premier, China goes from being a strategic competitor to a strategic adversary. We were late to realizing the shift in mindset by China. They were no longer, there’s a lot of it that goes into this from the 2008 financial meltdown, etc. There’s a lot of components to break apart in that analysis. But Xi makes a fundamental change not only about China, but in the relationship with the United States. And we were, hope overcame reason in the sense of understanding that China wasn’t not only playing by the rules, but they made a shift strategically, and we were late to coming to that understanding. I think he actually gave us a wake-up call, and had he silent or more oblique we would have lost a decade when we lost, really, closer to half a decade or maybe just a tad more. And now, we are aware of it. I’m not sure we’re doing everything to meet it.
HH: President Obama began what is called the pivot to Asia. Donald Trump has continued it. What do you make about that redeployment of American military strength in numbers and in capacity to the Pacific?
RE: You know, I happen to think it’s very important militarily. I happen to think our multiplier, we can get into this, is making sure that Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, India, the Philippines, all our allies are aligned and pulling in the same direction both on economic deterrence and on strategic and military deterrence. I don’t think as a father of two kids in the Navy, one full-time and one reserve, I don’t think it’s only about our military. Our economic power, take an example of export controls on semiconductors. They’re effective, because Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the Dutch all lined up with the United States, shoulder to shoulder. If you think you’re going to do it by yourself, you’re going to be the odd man out. This basic pivot here, our goal is to isolate the isolator, China. China’s goal is to isolate us. And I think that we have to use our economic strength, our political strength, and our strategic strength to our advantage. Look, even countries that aren’t “allies in the region”, they do not want an undeterred, unhinged China. They welcome America as the counterpoint. So to me, that’s the key thing, and could build on that across each of the spectrums, or each of the component parts.
HH: Well, I love the fact that you’ve got kids in the Navy. I had a son in the Navy who passed in the hallway with your son in Naval Intelligence.
HH: He just retired about six months ago. And then I have a son-in-law who’s still on active duty. And so I’m always hearing about our Pacific deployments. You know about, then, how important it is that we keep a robust submarine and carrier fleet out there. Do you think we’re building for a future to face China? Or do we need a rethink strategically?
RE: Well, first of all, you always have to rethink constantly and strategically. You basically have a consensus. There should always be a group of people questioning the consensus. Now we are, there was a great story in the Wall Street Journal this week. I say great, because it underpins, underscores something I’ve been advocating, wrote about when I was ambassador, which is we are not building the Navy and the capacity from submarines to other things, other parts of the Navy, fast enough, and the supplies we need fast enough. And that means we’ve got to call on the strengths of our allies, which is, I advocate for repairs of the 7th Fleet that’s based out of Japan, to be repaired in Japan. Keep them in theater and use the United States’ power and capacity, industrial, to build new an additional, and not clog up the system with repair work, which we’re way behind on. Second is we have, the only part of the world where we have an aircraft carrier permanently based is in Japan in the Indo-Pacific. There has got to be a potential to call on the other parts of both the Navy, the Marines, and the Air Force in different ways to think strategically, think about the challenges, and not just Taiwan. You have the Philippines, a sovereign nation and a treaty ally, and the South China Sea is 14% of the world’s entire fish catch. 40% of the GDP of the world goes through those waters, and China is trying to change the facts for both the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries that surround the South China Sea. And so you have to think of it from that strategy as well. The best offense is an effective, credible deterrence.
HH: I agree. That’s Teddy Roosevelt to Ronald Reagan to the present day. Now you may have overlapped with Admiral Paparo, whom I have not met.
HH: But I love the fact he said we have to make the Taiwan Strait be a hellscape if China attempts to cross it in force. Do you agree with the Admiral?
RE: Well, Poppy is his code name, and I agree with, whatever Sam says, I take at face value. He’s a very smart and very strategic thinker, as is his predecessor, The Lung, Aquilino. John Aquilino was, I think, they no doubt had part of the credibility of the deterrence on the military side is not only the United States, not only Taiwan, but our allies being part of that and making sure that it is, since China has never ever fought a navy war, or naval-led military effort, that they understand the command of the seas is something the United States and Japan and Australia understand. And we will make it so hard to think about, it is that credibility of doubt that creates its own deterrence.
HH: I agree with that. Do you believe Xi is ever going to loosen his grip on that country, Ambassador Emanuel, because he is different from previous Chinese leaders?
RE: Look, I mean, they’re very, they’re shades of each other. He has taken it to a higher level. There is no way he will loosen his grip, because of his own sense of protest, whether they were in Hong Kong or when there was housing protests in China itself in the mainland. There’s no way he will loosen his grip. And look, follow the money. He has spent more on domestic security than he has on his own military security and the projection of that power. That tells you there’s three senses of vulnerability in China historically. One around food, one around energy is the second, and the third is around the Chinese people. They live in constant fear of the Chinese people. That is one of their big insecurities, and so therefore, based on history and based on culture, no way will the Chinese Communist Party under Xi loosen their grip and control. And I think if you think about COVID, it used to be if you wanted to get rid of a political opponent, you send them away. The iPhone or the phone, mobile phone, they have now realized how to bring the gulag to you. You can’t get on a bus. You can’t go shopping. You can’t get groceries. You can’t leave your neighbor. You can’t use $5 bucks, because they know where you are. So the concept, like Russia, or the Soviet Union where you used to send a political dissident to Siberia, the Siberia now comes to you.
HH: That’s very well put, and I agree with that. Do you think most Americans understand the nature of the Chinese political system, and indeed Chinese espionage in the United States?
RE: I don’t think most Americans, and I don’t think most of the political class, either. So I wouldn’t distinguish the Americans. I think our political class on both parties, both have, you know, I’ll give you an example. Political class, I’m guilty of this, also. Sometimes, I’ve used the Cold War metaphor. It’s actually wrong, and it leads to wrong conclusions. What do I mean? When we had a Cold War with the Soviet Union, well, the Soviet Union, and in Russia specifically as the anchor of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, was maybe 7% of the world GDP. We had zero trade. Here, we have over a trillion dollars of trade. China is close to 20% of the world’s GDP. And it is not a military conflict alone. Xi has made sure that the future of the United States’ battle with China is going to be on science and technology. Why I oppose what President Trump is doing, one of the reasons, not the only reason, is while they’re investing in quantum, while they’re investing in AI, while they’re investing in biotech, we are cutting our investments in the National Institute of Health, the National Science Foundation, DARPA and all the other aspects that make up America’s scientific and technological leadership. It is unilateral disarmament by the United States of America led by President Trump. That is the war that Xi is getting ready for, and we need to play to our strengths in the scientific and technological arena, and we are not doing it with the university system and college systems that the United States has built up post-World War II.
HH: Oh, Mr. Ambassador, up front, I tell people interviews are not debates, so I just want to hear your answers and I won’t debate you on them. But on that point, we are also falling behind in the AI race because we don’t have enough of an electrical base. We don’t have enough power in the United States, and renewables don’t provide it. They’re uncertain.
RE: Hugh, you’re not going to get…
HH: Do we need small modular reactors?
RE: Yeah, yeah, we can have a debate. This is like, I thought this was going to be like a Jewish home for dinner. We were going to scream at each other. That’s how we debate with each other.
HH: (laughing) Okay, tell me about nuclear reactors. Are you in favor of them?
RE: Yeah, I mean, look, I’m in favor of them. I was an advocate. And when I was ambassador to Japan, for Japan expanding, opening their closed nuclear facilities post-Fukushima. I want the United States to be a leader in what is called the small medium reactor, SMR field. There’s about seven companies from NuScale to the one, Hitachi, GE, to the Westinghouse, and now I’m getting into a problem because I’m starting to name and I shouldn’t leave any off. Bill Gates has a great company out in Wyoming that’s starting a plant. There was a story today about a new thing in Idaho. So my view is we should let a thousand flowers bloom. Test which technology works. I happen to think if you look around the corner, what’s going to happen which will be different is the industrial large users will come off the grid and become self-sufficient. The rest of the grid system will go to a consumer retail-base type of energy. And the SMR as a piece of the solution, not only for climate change, but for energy independence, will be a key component. I slightly, not slightly, I disagree with you in that sense that the renewables will be a strong component. But what they need is the battery storage, which America is also a leader in. And the capacity to keep that retail energy and the electrical system working. And then the biggest thing, which is a win-win for the United States, which is redoing the electric grid to support this type of investment. And that means training men and women to be Illinois, in an International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, because we are short workers to build the grid system, which is one of the lynchpins. And this gets to your first question. If we don’t invest in America’s electrical grid, I don’t, not that I don’t care about China, but that’s like a domestic internal piece that will hold America back from its great leadership and potential.
HH: We are in 100% agreement. Last China question. Are you familiar with Jimmy Lai?
RE: Well, this is definitely, this is definitely not a Jewish meal if we’re in agreement. So I just want to start and end right there.
HH: I’ll get to it. We’ll get to that stuff. But are you familiar with Jimmy Lai in solitary confinement in Hong Kong, because Xi is afraid of him?
RE: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it’s…
HH: President Trump and Secretary Rubio have assured me on this show they’re working to get him out. Do you think they’ll get him out? Or is Xi just going to say no forever?
RE: Look, this is an uneducated guess. They will get him out, but the price is going to be one that’s going to be painful. And like in everything of governing, you’ve got a list of about a hundred things. Is it number 99, or is it number 9? What are the pieces, where does getting him out sit against fentanyl, against industrial, against chips, against Taiwan? So the list is long, and I can’t speak to the administration’s, where is they…you tell me where they put his freedom on their list of ‘musts’ and where does it rank, and I’ll tell you whether I’m optimistic or pessimistic.
HH: They tell me it’s near the top, but that’s a vague assurance. Let’s move on, but you’re right. It depends on where it is on the list.
HH: Very definitely not the Jewish dinner. Let’s get there. Should we allow allies like South Korea and Japan to build warships for us? Not just repair and maintain them as you pointed out we could do in Japan tomorrow, but build them for us against the Jones Act, for example?
RE: Yes, But before I get my hate mail, let me fill out the yes, but…
HH: Yeah, you’re going to.
RE: Yeah. You could find a way that the United States and Japan, who are more familiar. Japan builds the hull, and the United States then brings the hull to the United States and customizes the Aegis Class. Then, Japan does their own Aegis their way. But the hull production, which would allow you to multiply the production of the Aegis, I’m just using that as one example, would, could be a joint project. I actually think one of the things you could do with Japan is we will do more of the 7th Fleet maintenance there, but we need Mitsubishi or Kawasaki to purchase one of the shipyards in the United States, and open up a shipyard here and start the production, because their capability of on-time and on budget versus the United States is junior varsity versus NBA.
HH: Why is that, Ambassador?
RE: So, I…look, I mean, I wrote about this. So I want to give a point out to something. In the United States, we’re all responsible for, both parties, both political class and commercial class, for allowing our miliary industrial capacity to shrivel over the years, post-Cold War. We overshot the runway from 55 companies to five big ones. We didn’t get efficiency. We got rewarding overbudget and behind schedule. No other business professional besides the military industrial complexes of the United States have we rewarded, year in and year out, failure. So my view, if you want to get, we’ve talked about it, talked about it, talked about it. Ban for seven years all corporate stock buybacks until they fix on time and on budget. And Japan does that. I went personally with Del Toro, the former secretary of navy, to see Mitsubishi production and their capacity. They could tell you three years from now which screw will be put in, in which base, on what hour of the Tuesday in the third week of November. And they’ve never been behind budget or behind schedule in the way the United States has, nowhere close. Another is a lot of cultural…
RE: And so my view, you need to take a 2X4 to the corporate suite, and I’ll give you two examples. And I wrote about this in Bloomberg. Hugh, at Raytheon and Lockheed, in the last three years, did $19 billion dollars in stock buybacks, and collectively, $4 billion in new production and capital expenditure. $19B versus $4B, and you and I have spent the first 15 minutes talking about China, which is a naval and aerial and missile theater versus a land theater in Europe. And we don’t have, nobody’s going to say time out, we’re not ready for the Taiwan Straits or the South China Sea. They’re investing in their potential and where they think the conflict’s going to be. We are hamstrung by a broken system that we have rewarded the worst behaviors. And there’s only one way to do it. Cold turkey it. You want to focus the corporations and the leadership of those corporations in fixing what is broken? And don’t talk to me about oh, we need more certainty. Budgets for defenses are going up. That, you know. No corporate stock buyback to enrich the CEO’s in the corporate suite until you fix this problem with the American people. And that will wake them up.
HH: Music to my ears. Now do you think carriers, and this is important if you ever decide to run for and are successful being president. Do you think carriers are on the edge of becoming obsolete over the next 20-25 years and we’re going to be a submersible Navy?
RE: All right, I’m going to give you, I’ve actually, crazily, started to read about this and educate. I actually think the short answer is no, but I would expand what carriers are. And what I mean by that is we have the potential now for both unmanned and other type of drone capacity to take off vertically. So you could take a barge, put five of those capacities on a barge, and that becomes an aircraft carrier. So you have to change your concept, and here’s what I’m thinking about. You can now have 50 aircraft carriers in the South China Sea or in the Indo-Pacific theater, not just the Ronald Reagan, not just the George Washington, not just the Abraham Lincoln when they’re there. You could massively expand your aircraft carriers, and that goes to America’s strength, and all of a sudden makes China’s investments more vulnerable and more weak, because if you don’t give them a singular target, but massively expand what the targets are and massively expand what an aircraft carrier is for the 21st Century, you just have rethought and used and played to America’s strengths China’s vulnerability and our capacity to change the asymmetrical warfare today.
HH: You just spent four years in Japan that is transitioning from post-World War II Japan to…
RE: Do you not disagree with that?
HH: We agree. Absolutely, and I’ve got carrier people in the family, and they tell me I’m a little bit, we need the big ones, and I understand that, but they’re going to be like battleships in World War II before long in the age of hypersonic missiles. I want to know what you saw in the Japan attitude? Have the Japanese embraced their need to be a war fighting nation again?
RE: So I’m sensitive to the Japanese public, but what I would say is they absolutely understand the world is different today. They absolutely understand that they have a role to play in meeting that challenge. And they have gone from a pacifist to investment into deterrence. Do I say go into a militaristic, based on history, etc., and the post-World War II culture? No. But they’re going from the 9th-biggest sized defense budget in the world, the 9th largest, to the 3rd largest defense budget. And they’re acquiring capabilities like counterstrike capabilities that nobody would have thought of on those two things. And that goes to Prime Minister Kishida, the leaders of the LDP. But that consensus is actually shared by the entire country, mainly because of knowing that they can’t just rely on the United States. And they also have a lot of security concerns about what China is doing, not just in China, but how they are also starting to do things around the Senkaku Islands, around the Okinawa island chains, and in and around the Sea of Japan, that they have never done before. So Japan understands the world’s different, they’ve got to change.
HH: Now about Taiwan, Admiral Montgomery comes on this program a lot, retired Navy two-star. He does a lot of work with Taiwan. They have ordered a lot of weapons from the United States. They can’t get approved by DOD and State. Can you fix that if you were president? Do you think you could accelerate getting Taiwan what Taiwan needs to defend itself primarily, even with our help?
RE: Look, I mean, Mr. Montgomery is much smarter than I am about what Taiwan needs, but I think if I read it correctly, I think there are like $12 billion dollars, $15 billion dollars we’re behind on meeting their orders?
RE: All right, so can you fix it? Yes, you can fix it. But it requires putting white light heat on the bureaucracy. Let me give you one example of what I mean. Japan produces the Patriot. Mitsubishi had the industry. They make it. They have the capacity on site to go up to 75 missiles a year. They were making, just a couple years ago, 35. Now, they’re down to single digits. Why? Because we can’t get an agreement in the United States to get them the stuff quick enough, and for the capacity. So can they, can we do it? Yes. The only way, and I spent countless hours with good people both in State and Pentagon trying to get this. You have to make a decision like on proprietary technology, the risk. It’s not risk free, but you know, governing is choosing between bad and worse. If you want to get Japan, which is one of the only countries that can produce up to about 150 if they took more real estate capacity, right now, the existing industrial capacity is 75. If you want that, you either decide that we’re going to stay at 75, or we’re going to go bigger, but we’re going to make a different decision on the licensing of other type of technologies. And you’ve just got to make that decision. And that requires somebody sitting there, and rather than in committee looking at the same facts year in and year out, we are going to make a call here.
RE: Either we’re going to get to X number…
HH: We’re going to find something to disagree on pretty soon. Don’t worry, we will.
RE: Get to domestic. Get to domestic politics (laughing).
HH: I’m going to get there, but I’ve got to do the, I only do national security on presidential debates, so I’m doing it with you. In the, we have a triad. Which leg of the triad needs modernization first, fastest, regardless of cost?
RE: I know this is not usual for somebody who has spent his time on national. I haven’t read a lot on that particular question, so I don’t, I’m not, this would be an uneducated guess. Given the capacity of America’s Air Force, I would say to keep the modernization of the, get the Air Force piece of that because of the globe, get that modernized first. But that’s really a bad, I’m not sure.
HH: Okay, you’re wrong. It’s the Columbia-class. We need the boomers. They can’t be found, but we can go back to that. I want to switch to Israel.
RE: Seriously, if you have something to read on that, I’d be very eager to get it.
HH: I will get it to you. Now Israel…
HH: Today, the cabinet is meeting. Indeed, they’re meeting as we speak about whether or not to occupy all of Gaza. It is allegedly, reported in the Times of Israel, the Prime Minister’s plan to occupy all of Gaza, beginning with Gaza City, and then to turn over a conquered Gaza, free of Hamas, to Arab troops. What do you make of that proposed decision as it’s being reported?
RE: I think this is, I would listen to the head of the IDF, Israel Defense Forces, of the consequences of what you have to do. This is, in the way I look at this, this is a byproduct of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s refusal to have a day after plan starting 18 months ago. Now if you look at the situation today, Israel has militarily succeeded, and failed politically and strategically. And that sits at the Prime Minister’s front door. Hamas, on the other side, has succeeded politically beyond what they expected, and failed miserably militarily. They’re mirror opposites of each other. I will try to control myself here, because I think the Prime Minister, if you’ll look at it historically, and we have a, you know, he called, we have a long history going back to ’09 when he called me publicly, when I was President Obama’s chief of staff, a self-hating Jew, publicly.
RE: (laughing) Yeah, well, he has failed miserably in the responsibilities of thinking through politically and strategically the opportunities that Israel has achieved militarily. Look, my middle name is Israel. My father fought in the Irgun, fought in the war of independence. Never has Israel been more secure militarily from the days when Ben-Gurion led the hora at Dizengoff Circle when they were declared a state. They’re incredibly secure, strategically, militarily. And they’re unbelievably, politically and internationally, more vulnerable than they’ve ever been. And it’s on the doorstep of this Prime Minister, because he refuses to make the tough political decisions because of his own sense of being held hostage by a cabinet that is divorced from political and strategic reality. The Israeli Defense Force has done an incredible, as we’ve seen over the last few years having fumbled on October 7th and 8th and 9th, has incredibly reestablished not only Israel’s military superiority, it’s the credibility of deterrence for future efforts, have done things that nobody thought could be done both in Beirut, rather in Southern Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran, and even in Gaza. But there has been an absolute absence of political leadership. And to literally do to, since March 18th when the last ceasefire ended, 50-plus Israel soldiers have died for what military advantage? The highest suicide rate by reservists in Israel’s military history. And those poor men and women, hostages, rather men, hostages are still underground in those tunnels with no greater strategic effort. And Israel now, rather than isolating Hamas, has isolated itself. Now you decide to put…
HH; Now you’ve seen the pictures of those hostages. You’ve seen the videos. They will die unless the IDF gets them out. They will die. They’re going to starve to death. Should the IDF take the risk involved in going after them, and that means into parts of Gaza they’ve never gone before for fear of the hostages being executed?
RE: The one thing I know, by the way, I said earlier that I know about governing is choosing between bad and worse. I don’t have all the information. What are the risks to the civilians? What are the risks to the soldiers going after them? What are the risks that they decide in the tunnels? Are they kept together? Are they kept separate in different parts? Israel has intelligence. I don’t have that intelligence. I couldn’t even give you a 3rd grade answer to that, because that’s a question that’s a legitimate question that I would be guessing without a series of pieces of information over a period of time.
RE: But I do, I want to say one thing. What is going on, also an example of what I mean about the Prime Minister’s absolute, abject responsibility to the state of Israel and to the Jewish people and to the strategic position of Israel, to stand up there a week ago in front of the world and say there’s no hunger, there’s no malnutrition, destroys the credibility you need when you make other claims. And he has failed the one test of leadership that is essential. He failed the security of the state of Israel, and he failed to invest and take advantage of what military success does, which means it creates a void, an opening for political, strategic chess moves. And he refuses to do it because of his own political calculations, for his own security, and he’s put at risk the rest of the Israelis’ own future, potentially.
HH: I’ve heard these criticisms from people like Haviv Rettig Gur. I’ve always heard Dr. Michael Oren make some of these criticisms, and I’ve heard Amit Segal give counterarguments. I’m not an Israeli, so I just look at them as the equal of any of our strategic allies, and I’m glad they launched Operation Rising Lion, and I’m glad President Trump did Operation Midnight Hammer. Is Rahm Emanuel glad that both of those two things happened?
RE: Look, I, so the first part, rather the second part on Iran. That was, I do think it was the right decision to do. They actually not only destroyed the nuclear, I think they actually degraded it, that it’s incredibly costly. Iran’s efforts for the last 40 years are now blown up from Southern Lebanon to Syria, and also in, when the Israeli Air Force occupies and controls Iranian air space, it’s an incredible effort. I have some doubts about whether I’d make that decision of the President of the United States based on Israeli intelligence that’s the direct opposite of your own. To be studied and analyzed. Now, the question is what is the day after? And again, the Prime Minister has failed both in Syria and Lebanon, and what, vis-à-vis Iran, vis-à-vis what I mean Iran, for the rest of the Gulf countries, and also with Saudi Arabia.
HH: You know, there’s a good chance he’ll be prime minister if you ever become president. Can you work with him, because your old boss, President Obama, sure couldn’t?
RE: Well, look, I work with anybody. I mean, I could work with President Xi. I’ve been as critical there, too. As you know, they went after, when I was ambassador, they basically four or five times went from the podium, went after me. I’m up front. You know where I stand. And can I work with him? I can work with a lot of parts and components of the Israeli government. I can work with a lot of components of both friend, foe, as ally as well as not ally. That’s a responsibility. But I’m going to be clear about my position. I would make the decision to do that. Now as it relates to Israel’s other pieces of its security, I’ve been supportive of that effort, and consistently supportive. But you have to understand that the military is one piece that creates a platform for the political and strategic to then secure. That is the only way you lock down. Look at this. In the history of Israel, they have secured things with…oh, go ahead.
HH: Can you…can you be that clear about President Macron’s comments on a Palestinian state? I think that made him an accomplice of Hamas. I think it killed another hostage deal, and I think he’s responsible for at least half of the 20 still being in the tunnels. What do you think?
RE: I don’t think he’s responsible for that. The responsibility sits with what Israel did and didn’t do, what Hamas did and did not do and refuses. Now look, I come from a position Israel uses its missiles to protect its population, and Hamas uses its people to protect its missiles. Much different moral equivalence. They’re not even equivalence. I think, I don’t want to speak for President Macron, but my guess is there’s a massive frustration that Israel hasn’t thought about what’s next. That’s on Israel. There are things you have to decide and do, and I don’t support the idea that you unilaterally call for a Palestinian state. You work for it, but you have to understand, also, and I am sympathetic. I’ve worked going back to the Oslo Accord with President Clinton and President Obama, there’s a belief that you know, you could have a one state, but you can’t have second-class citizens in that one state. That’s crazy. So like Rabin, not exactly a softie when it comes to Israel’s security, understood the future. The other party, Prime Minister Olmert, understood the security of the future of Israel. That’s why he tried to negotiate the ’06 agreement. Ehud Barak at the end of President Clinton’s background in 2000 at Camp David, everybody, look, the Palestinians, and the Palestinian leadership, failed three separate times to say the word yes with 98% of what they could have gotten. 99%. So they own that. But that doesn’t mean you are cleaned of your hands, and you can say okay, well, they failed. You have a responsibility.
HH: You know, Ambassador, there comes a point where realism takes over, and we’re not going to get a Palestinian state in my lifetime because of 10/7. It’s going to take a long time for the Israelis to trust another independently operated Palestinian enclave not to do what happened on 10/7. Do you agree with that assessment?
RE: Yes, but here, look, that’s, I agree with that in this sense, but that doesn’t mean you’re done. There’s Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf countries ready to do things they would never do 5-10 years ago.
RE: You have to make the first question isn’t that. The first question is, is Israel’s long-term security, and when I say long-term, I mean a decade or two, in the present situation.
HH: All right. Let’s go to domestic politics.
RE: So, wait a second, if you agree that long-term security is not the status quo for the next 20 years, then you start making other types of calculations. I think the Gulf countries and the Arab countries surrounding Israel, a number of them, specifically Egypt and Jordan, would be ready to step in and do certain things of standing up a technically capable Palestinian governance that would deal with meeting the aspirations of the Palestinian people in a way that Israel can’t and shouldn’t. And that solves some of the political and economics.
HH: So…this is the bridge to American politics. There is a new left-wing in your party that wants to “globalize the intifada”, that is running Mr. Mamdani in New York, socialists in Seattle and Minneapolis, that are simply radical and anti-Israel. 1) What do you think about them? And 2) Do you think the Democrats will ever nominate a Jew to be president or vice-president again?
RE: Yeah, well, one, on the first part, I’ve already spoken to the fact that I don’t believe calling for a global intifada is part of the core of what the Democratic Party would present. It’s not. You’re calling for the destruction of the Jewish people.
RE: That is what the Intifada 1 and Intifada 2 and globalizing mean. And I don’t know any of these individual candidates across, but, and I don’t know them, but the idea that you would embrace the concept that both the state of Israel and Jewish people could be killed because of both their identity and their nation, or their beliefs like Zionism, is not welcomed in the Democratic Party. It’s not welcomed in America, regardless of party. And there are elements in both parties that are talking differently about both Jewish people and the state of Israel. As it relates to a Jewish nominee who could be Jewish for the Democratic Party, the short answer is yes. And I say this based on what reference and rather referential experience.
RE: When I ran for Congress…
HH: I hope you’re right. I just think your party’s lost a lot of its bearings since Bill Clinton. It’s gone left, left, left, woke, woke, woke, and off the edge. Can you get it back? Can you throw them a rope and bring them back up to the top?
RE: Hugh, I don’t mean to do this to you, but you know, you know, you and I could be isolated on the same island at this point, because your party’s gone right, right right, okay? So I mean, in my own view on that. That said, I do believe, and I mean, I think this is an important lesson. The prior members that were elected from the north side of Chicago were Dan Rostenkowski, Frank Annunzio, Roman Pucinski, Rob Blagojevich, Mike Flannegan, and along comes Raham Israel Emanuel where the Jewish community represented only 3% of that district. Same thing as when I ran for the mayor of the city of Chicago. I don’t want to extrapolate more from that, but that’s also, take Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania.
HH: Great friend of the show. We love him. Yeah.
RE: Okay, but my example is you have both the city and that state where ethnicity, background, history, name, etc, culture, faith play an important role in politics as they always have in America. They reach past racial differences and distinctions and saw a person, a character, and capability. And I believe that’s true about America, and I think that will always be true about America. And that’s why I think it’s sad when we turn Americans against each other rather than as President Lincoln once said, to our better angels.
HH: We must be friends, not enemies. Let me ask you, Rahm Emanuel, have you read Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson’s book, Original Sin?
HH: Is it true what your brother was yelling at the gathering for the weekend?
RE: The one thing I know about being an Emanuel is don’t speak for the Emanuel brothers. Look…
RE: They have a chath…no, they have, oh, it doesn’t mean that we don’t try. They have Chatham House rules there, and so I wasn’t there that year. I was in Japan. But I know from my own conversations with Ari, there’s one thing you should know about Emanuel’s. You will never leave a conversation saying well, what is their opinion? We’ll give you our opinion whether you ask for it or not.
HH: All right. What is your opinion of the bad high school theater going on with Texas Democrats fleeing to Illinois, because that’s what it is. It’s bad high school theater.
RE: You know, you say that, and I don’t, Hugh, let me say this. Look, as somebody who’s practiced the dark arts of redistricting, that’s been going on in politics for a long time. That’s why the term gerrymandering has a couple hundred years behind it.
RE: That’s, oh yeah. Right. What hasn’t happened is the idea that because you’re scared of an election result, you rewrite the rules midway in the game. Not redistricting. Now I happen to think we should be focused on reducing the cost of living. They want to focus on redistricting. If you were confident in the success of the One Big Beautiful Bill, you really think you’d be trying to redistrict and eliminating five seats? Because…
HH: Yes, because Illinois did it and Massachusetts did it, and Maryland did it, and the Texas Republicans were timid.
RE: No, no, but…Hugh, I’ve read enough about your history of your experiences with Ronald Reagan and that type of Republican. You would not decide in the middle of a decade to play politics again. We’ve got big challenges. We’ve got a third of our kids are behind reading levels at national level, and we are doing redistricting. That is turning America against America, and no, I get gerrymandering. And I get the reforms of California and New York and Iowa. I’m pro those reforms. But the idea that you’re going to do this right before the midterm election on a presidential, not because you’re confident of the voters and the voters’ decisions to say I agree with what you’re doing. Your not confident, so therefore you’re trying to rig the system mid-cycle. Now don’t talk to me…
HH: Now it’s new. It’s an innovation…
RE: No, wait a second. Oh, please.
HH: It hasn’t been done before, but Democrats elected…
HH: I won’t talk over you. Go ahead.
RE: Look, you have, today there was data out. Again, highest level of unemployment. You have more people not looking for employment. And you have inflation up, which is what he promised to deal with. So rather than dealing with reducing costs, we’re going to deal with redistricting. That is what’s going on. And you’re basically wanting to rig the system, and that, the reason people are reacting like this, Hugh, is because this is different. Gerrymandering, we get. Everybody gets, because it’s been going on for a long, long time in American politics. Doing it right before a midterm election, in mid-cycle? That hasn’t always been done. And don’t make it the same, because…
HH: No, it’s new. Unless it’s been ordered by a court, it’s new. But it is Constitutional. What was new with the Democrats is these “independent commissions” which like in California, were actually facades for Democratic takeover. And in Illinois, your state, you are the most ruthless redistricting state there is. And I think everyone agrees Illinois has got the most ridiculous map. So Republicans are playing catch-up, but I don’t believe because we were slow out of the gate that we shouldn’t sprint to catch up and do what the Democrats do.
RE: Hugh, first of all, you should have done, Texas did redistricting.
RE: Oh, well, that’s on them. If you think this, let me ask you a question. Let’s flip this. With all the things we’ve got to deal with in the United States, you think this is where our energy should be? You really believe that?
HH: It is where, one of them is because we will go backwards with a Democratic legislature.
RE: Oh, I actually think…
HH: We will go backwards with a Democratic Congress, and here’s my proof. In the Congress, in the Senate for the first time in history…
HH: …not one nominee received unanimous consent in the first six months of a term of a president, because Chuck Schumer would not allow one. So there are new rules all the time. Harry Reid broke the rule on filibuster with the nuclear option. There are always innovations.
HH: Your side usually starts it.
RE: Hugh Hewitt, you know, okay, Hugh Hewitt, well, first of all, both parties of always starting something. You’re, you started, your pedigree is under Ronald Reagan.
HH: Actually, it’s under Richard Nixon.
HH: I worked for him right out of college in 1978, so it’s with Nixon. He was in exile in San Clemente.
RE: I’m actually helping you on your biography, but you wouldn’t take it. I will tell you, I knew where it started. I was actually giving you kind of the maturity of coming through the Reagan mold to the Republican Party. All I’m going to say to you right now, he worked with Tip O’Neill and saved Social Security. They had big fights. He then worked, starting in 1986 with a Democratic Senate and House, and he was capable of doing that in the final two years. If I’m not mistaken, he also got welfare reform signed in the final two years. So I’m saying, this, don’t act like this is oh, just normal playing catch up. This is new. Ronald Reagan would not have done this. Richard Nixon would not have done it. Richard Nixon also had a Democratic House and Senate. This is totally different. And don’t…
HH: Well, there are some totally different things…Let me give you a totally different thing.
RE: And don’t…moral question. It’s time we…
HH: You’re familiar with the Pod Bros, right? You listen to podcasts. You listen to the Pod Bros. Do you know that in their most recent sit-down, they set table stakes for a Democratic nominee in 2028 is the cut-off of military assistance to Israel. Do you think that’s table stakes for people who want to be president?
RE: No. And if that, we’ll have a debate on it.
HH: What do you think of the Ben Rhodes wing of your foreign policy establishment? He’s the guy who went to Fidel Castro’s funeral on his own dime.
RE: Well, look. Let me say one thing why you wouldn’t want to cut off military assistance. I was in the room with President Obama when the seed capital for the Iron Dome that produced the missile shield and protection shield that we saw capable since October 7th, 2023. And the United States has access to that technology in our own capacity. And the military theater is changing dramatically. And so the assistance is not a one-way street. It’s also a two-way street.
RE: And we have new challenges. Look, by way of example, Israel is developing a laser for dealing with drones, and that’s much more energy efficient and cost efficient. The United States will be a beneficiary of that. And so I don’t think when you think about oh, we’re going to cut off Israel, you may be, to use the old phrase, cutting off your nose to spite your face.
RE: So I just think that…
HH: We’re running low on time.
HH: So I want to get three questions in, in six minutes, Mr. Ambassador. One…
RE: And I will give you four.
HH: I have great sympathy for parents and children who struggle with gender dysphoria. I don’t talk about it on the air very much because of that. But I’m adamant that boys ought not to play girls’ sports, and men in women’s sports. Do you agree with me? Or do you agree with the activists in your party who think it’s a litmus test?
RE: No, I don’t think boys should be playing in girls’ sports, because as somebody that kind of kicked this issue up, not that, but specifically the issue of trans, rather gender identity, I said that before there’s too much emphasis on bathroom access and locker room access, and not enough about classroom excellence. And the question we should be focused on, and as somebody as a mayor who signed the ordinance into law as it relates to bathroom access and accessibility, I do believe in being sensitive. But I’m very sensitive about the fact that 30 kids don’t know what a pronoun is and can’t tell you. And we are, our kids are behind in math and reading in a way that they haven’t been in three decades. And that means we have to focus on the priorities of making sure every child is educated and capable of meeting their potential and their future. And we’ve lost the focus. Now I’m a little surprised. I keep getting this question. I understand it’s a big question. But we don’t seem to talk about what would we do on education, what’s the roads on Mississippi showed us on reading, Alabama has showed us on math, things that we need to do to invest to start turning around the future of not only our kids, our education back to actually making gains on national and international standards.
HH: Now Mr. Ambassador, the American Legislative Exchange Council follows school choice very closely. 17 states have adopted a good, robust school choice program. They are succeeding better than the states that have not. Do you support universal school choice? And by the way, in the One Big Beautiful Bill, there’s a $1,700 dollar tax credit authored by Ted Cruz for parents or anyone who wanted to give $1,700 dollars to a scholarship-granting private school supporting organization? What do you think of that?
RE: Look, as somebody, I said this a long time ago. We’re having a debate where it’s not about this public school versus that charter or this public/private. I’m for a debate about excellence versus mediocrity, not about brands. I have both open schools that were succeeding and expanded them, and charter schools or gave them warnings and resources, either get better or not on both traditional public and charter. So to me, the real debate should be what meets excellence, not mediocrity. And reward, and getting and rewarding both, not only the excellence, but not the mediocrity. Now as it relates to, and I’m also one that allowed kids out of Parochial schools that were in Chicago that were poor to come into our community college for free. I said they’re kids of Chicago. I didn’t care where they went. If their parents went to X High School, they were big shoulder children from Catholic schools, they were poor, we started, the first city ever, B average, you get free community college – books, transportation, and tuition. To me, that was…
HH: Penultimate question. President Biden threw open the border. Between 5 and 10 million, maybe more people walked across. President Trump closed the border in two months. Why did Biden fail and Trump succeed?
RE: Well, I mean, this is, well, one is because of the attitude and policies. Somewhat resources, I think as you are also asking the person that for President Clinton designed Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego and Operation Safeguard. The American people prefer order versus disorder 1) The border under President Biden took on the qualities and characters of disorder, and the American people issued judgment on that. However, I happen to think while you focus on what President Trump has succeeded at the border, he, doing what he’s doing inside the United States, is now the sponsor of disorder, and that’s why the American people have now flipped on their position of what he’s doing on immigration. And even elements within his own party are saying what are you doing going after people that are working and abiding by the law? What are you doing going to hospitals? What are doing to people who are abiding by the law and showing up to the courtroom to follow the immigration rules that we have established and seizing them?
HH: Nothing would be easier to get done in the United States if the Democrats brought forward a serious immigration policy. Nothing would pass faster with DREAMers, resources for ICE, and allowing people regularization, but no citizenship. Nothing would be easier if Democrats got real about this.
RE: Hugh, I’m going to, as somebody who has practiced politics for a good portion of his entire adult life, in a real way, you say the Democrats. I happen to have a view that the Oval Office has more control than anybody else, just having been both a mayor, chief of staff, and as senior advisor to another president.
RE: And a Congressman. And so when you say a party that is neither a majority in the House or Senate, doesn’t have the Supreme Court, and doesn’t have the Oval Office, they’re the responsible party? I’m going to have to call you offsides.
HH: Oh, I didn’t say they’re responsible. I’m saying they could fix it.
RE: Number two, I’m now going to go out on a limb. So this is the bigger headline. We have more consensus on how to confront illegal immigration at the border and the workplace than ever before in the last 20 or 30 years on politics.
RE: We need to have a debate and move it not from enforcement alone, which I’m for, and the Democrats are for, to a discussion about what comprises legal, legal immigration. We are both a nation of laws, and a nation of immigrants. And what we need to do is honor both traditions, and both practices. And I have to know, you know, also, just to be full truth in advertising, and the reason I want to have a debate about legal immigration, is because we now as a country have a consensus on illegal is because the legal immigration is where the Republican Party divides against itself.
HH: And I think we can fix that divide. Here’s where I want to conclude.
HH: Senator Cotton’s a good friend. Comes on the show every week. Would you join Senator Cotton on this show to talk about immigration exclusively? You’ve done Megyn Kelly. I listen to Amy Walter. You’re great on the one-on-one. I’d love to, I don’t know that Senate Cotton would agree, but he does care a lot about immigration.
RE: Yeah, I don’t think he wants to lower himself to my standards.
RE: I said I don’t think Senator Cotton wants to lower himself to my standards.
HH: Oh, I’m sure he would if you were talking about immigration only. Would you do that?
RE: Yeah. I don’t have a problem with that.
HH: So you are, you’re basically available to anyone to talk to. Is this a conscious decision, because Secretary Clinton came on this show after the election in 2016, and she admitted on the air she should have done shows like mine before the election. John Kerry said the same thing when he came on. Are you going to talk to conservatives?
RE: Well, two weeks ago, I did Megyn Kelly’s show. I’m hoping you have more than just a conservative audience. You have people interested in politics. But yeah, I think, look, you can’t say you’re inclusive and then have a big strain of exclusivity.
RE: I don’t know if I’m going to run for higher office. I don’t know that. But I happen to think we are at a critical point in this country. I wouldn’t want to be a president for 48% of the country if I decided to do it. I’d make major efforts to try to make sure it’s more inclusive. And I learned something. I want to find out which of the triad, which I should know, and I feel embarrassed, which of the triad needs to be modernized first. I learned something on this show. But let me also say this. I used to do what is called Congress on your Corner, would stand at a grocery store just meet people. When I was mayor, I called it Wal-Mart walk-ins, Target Townhalls. When I was a Congressman, a young woman told me about her, the problems taking care of her mother in a nursing home, and I introduced the Elder Justice Act, and it passed. I, if you’re listening, debating, exposing yourself, not just your ideas, but exposing yourself, a practice that I would say is a strength in an Emanuel household, to listening, I’ve got a lot to learn.
HH: On that note, Rahm Emanuel, thank you for joining me. I hope you will be back soon and often.
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