📈 Market uncertainty, rate cuts, U.S. exceptionalism, and a potential
Canadian dollar shock—are we prepared for 2025? In this must-watch
episode, Pierre Daillie sits down with Ilan Kolet, Institutional
Portfolio Manager at Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation Team, to
dissect the most pressing questions investors and advisors are facing
💡 What happens if a 25% tariff is imposed on Canadian exports? 💡
Is the Canadian dollar heading for a collapse? 💡 Why are U.S.
equities still the best game in town? 💡 Have investors misunderstood
the bond market? 💡 Should portfolios brace for a new investment
🔥 "A 25% tariff on Canadian exports could trigger a 6% GDP shock, a
3% surge in inflation, and send the Canadian dollar plummeting to 52
🚀 Episode Highlights & Timestamps
⏳ [00:00:00] Intro & Welcome – Kicking off 2025 with
uncertainty
⏳ [00:02:00] A Market on Fire – Why a balanced portfolio returned
20% in 2024
⏳ [00:03:00] The Elephant in the Room: Political Instability &
Tariffs
⏳ [00:07:00] Canada’s Hidden Economic Weakness & The BoC's
Tariff Simulation
⏳ [00:13:00] Inflation or Deflation? What a Shock Would Mean for
Investors
⏳ [00:18:00] Are Investors Front-Running Inflation?
⏳ [00:22:00] Positioning for Uncertainty: How to Build Resilience
into Portfolios
⏳ [00:27:00] The Bond Market Paradox: Higher for Longer?
⏳ [00:30:00] Why U.S. Equities Are Still the Best Bet in 2025
⏳ [00:36:00] Rate Cuts: Canada Has to Cut, The Fed Wants to
Cut
⏳ [00:42:00] Will the Canadian Dollar Go On Sale?
⏳ [00:49:00] The Rise of Alternatives & Why They’re Critical in
This Market
⏳ [00:54:00] The ‘Magic’ of Portfolio Construction in Volatile
Markets
⏳ [00:55:00] Closing Thoughts – An Elegant Solution for Complex
📌 Key Takeaways
✅ A Canadian Tariff Shock Could Be Devastating – Ilan warns that a
25% tariff could trigger a 6% GDP decline, 3% inflation surge,
and a 25% CAD devaluation. “We should be taking the threat of
tariffs exceptionally seriously.”
✅ U.S. Equities Are Still King – "The U.S. economy is 15% larger
than in 2018, and unlike Europe or Japan, it keeps expanding. We’re
overweight U.S. stocks for a reason."
✅ Higher for Longer—But Not How You Think – The consensus view on
interest rates is wrong. "The Fed doesn’t need to cut aggressively,
and that’s a shock many bond investors aren’t ready for."
✅ Canadian Dollar in Trouble? – “The direction of travel is lower.
We’re at a
historically high underweight on the CAD."
✅ Alternatives Are Essential – With stocks and bonds positively
correlated,
liquid alts are more critical than ever.
✅ The Secret Sauce: Risk-Adjusted Returns – "Portfolio construction
is an elegant solution to a complex problem. Diversification isn't
just about asset types—it's about return streams that don’t move
🎧 Listen to the full episode and get ahead of 2025’s biggest
#Markets #Investing #Finance #Economy #InterestRates #PortfolioManagement #WealthManagement #Stocks #Bonds #Canada #USMarkets #Alternatives #Fidelity #Tariffs #MacroEconomics