The Intelligence from The Economist

Our model, built to predict the outcome of this year’s midterm elections, tips Republicans to take the House and Democrats to retain control of the Senate. The model’s architect discusses how and why he built it, and our polling guru explains why polls matter. Why there’s no nuclear-arms race in Asia—yet. And Egypt wants the Rosetta Stone back, but it’s not that simple.

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As Liz Truss becomes prime minister, we ask whether her meat-and-potatoes tax-slashing agenda will work for a crisis-stricken Britain. Japan’s prison population is ageing just as its wider society is—and that is at last prompting reforms to its punitive penal system. And why Ukraine’s short supply of anti-tank missiles is not as worrying as it would once have been. 

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The worst predictions for costs have not come to pass, partly because Russia is selling plenty of wheat. But plenty of food-price woe may still await. We examine the curious re-appearance of the polio virus in the West. And the trials of “Pink Sauce” reveal the perils of being a cottage-food producer—or consumer—in the social-media age.

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After a five-month hiatus, violence has returned to the northern region of Tigray—but that is just one of the conflicts threatening to pull the country to pieces. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has made it a prominent developing-world lender. How will it deal with so many of its loans souring? And our obituaries editor reflects on Issey Miyake’s fashion-for-the-masses philosophy.

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The long-trailed counter-offensive to retake the Russian-occupied regional powerhouse and symbolically powerful provincial capital has begun. But Ukraine’s forces are in no hurry. Visa and Mastercard are two of the world’s most profitable companies; we look at efforts to break their iron grip on the payments market. And the blue-blooded horseshoe crabs that are needlessly bled in their millions.

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The leader who oversaw the Soviet Union’s collapse had only intended to reform it. But the propaganda and repression he abhorred were what held it together. A speed bump lies ahead for electric vehicles: manufacturing and mining capacity may not keep up with battery demand. And visiting a vast landscape sculpture in Nevada’s desert ahead of this week’s public opening.

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As interest rates rise, lots of pandemic-era property trends are fading—but not every market is equally vulnerable as the boom peters out. Generals have long avoided fighting in cities: it is messy and dangerous. Increasingly, though, they have no choice. And our language columnist on the subtle question of whether “data” is plural or singular. 

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Our correspondent reports from Somalia, which stands on the brink of famine thanks to a drought, soaring food costs and infrastructure destroyed by decades of fighting. Old Hollywood studios are waging an epic battle against their upstart streaming rivals. And why London’s cemeteries are selling used graves.

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