The Intelligence from The Economist

A steady 20-point lead in the polls suggests that the Labour Party could comfortably win Britain’s next election. How have they managed to gain such a broad support base? Two embarrassing blunders from the German military could have sizeable implications at home and abroad (10:39). And, how two Japanese towns are transforming attitudes to childcare (16:44).

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In a result that will surprise few, America is on track to hold a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump winning most of the primaries held last night. But will the Republican campaign look different this time? Why shoppers and investors really love Costco (09:36). And which cities are most expensive for Europe’s renters (15:36)?

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The richer, more urban region does not just differ economically, but politically too. Can Mr Modi tone down the BJP’s Hindu nationalism and gain traction there? The EU has a grand plan to protect its economy from a host of risks, but finding consensus among 27 countries is hard (12:22). And why live music rocks (19:47). Additional music courtesy of Posthuman

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The international push for a ceasefire in Gaza continues, but the tragedies keep coming; in many ways a resolution still seems as distant as it was early in the war. We consider the temptation to go all in on stocks, given just how flaming-hot the markets are (10:55). And a data-led look into which American cities are the most dog-obsessed (16:13).

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A year on from our series Next Year in Moscow, Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition leader, is dead. Hope for the “beautiful Russia of the future” he imagined from his prison cell in Siberia is all but extinguished. The Economist’s Russia editor Arkady Ostrovsky finds out how Russians who oppose Vladimir Putin’s war are enduring these dark times

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A visit to a port of entry at America’s Mexican border reveals the difficulties in stopping the flood of fentanyl—a cheap, potent and ever more deadly drug. Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, is looking to blunt measures to escape an economic morass; our correspondent says he should instead look to Peru’s past (10:43). And remembering Robert Badinter, who killed off France’s guillotine (17:17).

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A slew of spycraft mishaps might suggest Russia’s once-great intelligence services have hopelessly decayed. Do not be fooled: the spooks are back, and better. We ask why a “supercycle” commodities boom might not come to pass, even though the conditions are ripe for one (10:04). And the questions raised as football attracts Saudi investment to England’s north-east (15:50).

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Some within China might prefer another Donald Trump presidency while others might favour Joe Biden. On balance, though: from there, neither option looks great. We look at the steps toward the first drug in four decades to treat the debilitating disease of endometriosis (9:28). And as the word podcasting turns 20 we reflect on a medium close to our hearts (17:51). 

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The birth rate of unicorns—firms with a valuation north of $1bn—has plummeted, and prior investors in them are eyeing what exits exist. We ask why the species is endangered. The struggle to finance and build homes is contributing to a profound housing crisis in sub-Saharan Africa (08:34). And the return of Parler, a darling social-media platform for America’s far right (17:56).

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After a 20-point primary walloping in South Carolina, the state she governed for eight years, Nikki Haley vowed to fight on against Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. But why? Seasonal opportunities for natural-gas arbitrage have been juicier during the war in Ukraine—and one good place to store cheap gas between seasons is Ukraine (9:31). And examining America’s cousin-marriage laws (16:05).

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