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This episode analyzes the historical performance of the stock market during and after government shutdowns since 1990. It challenges the common fear that shutdowns negatively impact the stock market. Examining the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000, the analysis reveals that these indexes generally experience gains during shutdowns. Furthermore, the market tends to continue rallying in the year following a shutdown. The author suggests that investors should not panic over potential shutdowns, as history indicates a likely positive, albeit short-lived, market reaction.

January's weak hiring numbers, significantly below average and seasonal expectations, initially sparked concerns about economic slowdown and inflation. However, a historical analysis reveals that similarly weak January hiring figures since 2010 have consistently correlated with above-average S&P 500 returns over the subsequent year. This analysis shows an 80% success rate of positive returns averaging 11.4%. The author suggests that despite negative market sentiment, this historical trend indicates a potentially positive outlook for the S&P 500. This is attributed to cooling labor demand, reduced consumer spending and price sensitivity.

· The January Fed policy statement was initially dubbed a hawkish shift.

· Fed Chair Powell said policymakers think rates are meaningfully above neutral.

· The statement means there’s plenty of cushion to lower rates.

· DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfang reportedly bought 50,000 Nvidia H800 GPUs.

· In 2021 the cost was $41,600 per chip, meaning a $2.1 billion investment.

· The numbers suggest DeepSeek’s low cost claims are unlikely.