The sudden escalation in the Middle East has jolted global markets, reversing expectations for lower inflation and rate cuts almost overnight. Malcolm Charles explains why this is more than a passing shock, how portfolios are being repositioned for a more uncertain world, and why caution rather than conviction is guiding investment decisions right now.

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In a market where gold no longer behaves like a safe haven and oil is rewriting the rules, investors are being forced to rethink old assumptions. George Chevely unpacks the dynamics across precious and industrial metals, and explains why energy, not gold, may now be the dominant force shaping returns.

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Just as central banks looked set on a path to easier policy, geopolitics has thrown a wrench into the plan. With conflict in the Middle East driving energy prices higher and clouding the inflation outlook, Jason Borbora-Sheen explains why rate cuts are being repriced, why different central banks will respond differently, and why, despite all the noise, markets have remained surprisingly resilient.

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Oil markets have been jolted by a sharp escalation in the Middle East, pushing prices higher and disrupting flows through the vital Straits of Hormuz. Paul Gooden explains how the effective closure of this key route is squeezing global supply, driving volatility across energy markets. With outcomes ranging from a temporary spike to a more sustained period of higher prices, inventories, demand destruction and geopolitics will ultimately determine where oil settles. 

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After more than 25 years running the Ninety One Value Fund, John Biccard has learned that successful investing often means enduring periods of discomfort. Value investing requires buying what others dislike and waiting patiently for the cycle to turn. In this conversation, Biccard explains why geopolitical shocks and market noise rarely change the long-term investment case and why some of today’s most out-of-favour sectors could become tomorrow’s winners.

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The military build-up signalled it was coming, and now markets must grapple with the fallout. As conflict in the Middle East escalates, energy prices jumped, bond yields backed up and investors are reassessing risk. John Stopford explores why spiking oil matters for inflation and monetary policy, how markets typically absorb geopolitical shocks, and why a defensive starting position may create opportunities as volatility unfolds.

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After a year in which tariffs failed to ignite inflation and both bonds and equities surprised on the upside, investors are reassessing the outlook. With global growth resilient, inflation cooling and the dollar gradually weakening, David Knee explains why the “Goldilocks” backdrop still supports risk assets. The real challenge for 2026 may not be that conditions are perfect but recognising that – for now – they’re good enough.

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The National Treasury delivered expenditure discipline, no new bailouts, and a third consecutive primary surplus. Jaco van Tonder discusses the expanded tax-free savings, retirement deductibility, CGT exclusions, and offshore allowances that create planning opportunities advisers should not ignore. Malcolm Charles explores how reduced weekly bond issuance, a rally in long-dated yields, and improving debt dynamics are reshaping the fixed-income opportunity set. 

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This year’s State of the Nation Address struck a notably confident tone: less promise, more progress. But is this truly a turning point? Alastair Herbertson explores why infrastructure is at the heart of South Africa’s growth ambitions, where private capital fits in, and why long-term investors may find this moment compelling.

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Phase 1 of Operation Vulindlela proved reforms can unlock private capital — around R500bn worth. Now Phase 2 shifts from policy design to delivery, with infrastructure firmly in the spotlight. Investment specialist Phuleng Pitso unpacks where the next wave of opportunity may emerge and what “success” could look like for investors and communities alike.

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