Tonight I broadcast live from the Asylum Studios in Eagle Pass, Texas for a two-guest show that dug deep into the real-world impact of prediction markets and the grit of adult paranormal fantasy.
In hour one, I sat down with Christopher Gerlacher of Prediction News to unpack how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket translate breaking legal decisions, debates, and early vote trends into market odds in real time. We explored why markets can be a sharper “nowcast” than polls, how the CFTC and states are colliding over the definition of “gaming,” the rise of sports contracts, and why responsible trading safeguards may be the industry’s sleeper issue. Chris also shared insights from the 2022 midterms, the mechanics of live odds swings, and what campaigns are really watching on election night.
In hour two, author and former Army officer Richard Spegal joined me to talk about building unapologetically adult paranormal worlds. We discussed his Eternal Nights prequel duology and Wolves and Ravens trilogy—stories that lean into moral risk, psychological fallout, and brutally real characters. Richard opened up about writing combat-realistic scenes, exploring faith and suicide with care, the challenge of celestial-lore without alienating readers, and why he centers committed partnerships over YA-style love triangles. His next book wraps the Wolves and Ravens arc soon, and I’ll have him back to dive deep once it’s out.
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(00:02:03) Cold open: fragments, poetry, and studio vibe
(00:03:43) Show intro from Asylum Studios and host welcome
(00:04:51) Tonight’s lineup and schedule notes
(00:05:58) Sponsor segment and platform housekeeping
(00:09:53) Value-for-value, feedback, and ways to connect
(00:10:23) Setting the table: money, odds, lawsuits, elections
(00:10:36) Guest intro: Christopher Gerlacher on prediction markets
(00:11:42) Host banter: pens, fidgets, and warming up
(00:12:12) Icebreakers: coffee with Alex Borrain, guitars, and hobbies
(00:15:16) Prediction markets 101: contracts, prices, and odds
(00:16:41) Do market odds sway voters? Influence vs. insight
(00:18:41) Real-time moves: debates, odds, and market reactions
(00:19:08) Gambling or finance? Hedging, speculation, and gray areas
(00:20:11) From midterms to markets: how the beat shifted
(00:21:40) Spotting shifts: early voting surges and live trading
(00:23:44) Regulators enter: who is the CFTC and why they matter
(00:25:51) Policing markets: manipulation, volume, and price integrity
(00:26:56) Courts, states, and the fight over gaming
(00:27:55) Kalshi v. CFTC and the opening for election contracts
(00:28:46) Sports contracts flashpoint: self-certifications and standoffs
(00:29:53) State regulators vs. federal exchanges: a jurisdiction clash
(00:30:42) Defining gaming: a single word driving nationwide cases
(00:33:54) Reading lawsuits: who files and what really bites
(00:34:37) What markets see that polls miss: Dobbs and durable effects
(00:36:47) Campaigns watch the tape: operatives and live odds
(00:38:41) The democratize finance arc and the everything app
(00:39:46) Are crypto prediction markets here to stay?
(00:40:57) Hearing recap: CFTC chair nominee Mike Selig on sports
(00:43:41) From sports betting lessons to platform pitfalls
(00:45:31) Responsible trading: the trapdoors and horror stories
(00:46:55) States and problem gambling funds: gaps and misuse
(00:48:47) Interviews that shifted perspective: hedging anything
(00:50:49) States vs. CFTC: the philosophical split over markets
(00:52:16) Sleeper issue: responsible trading comes to finance
(00:52:23) Takeaways for listeners: markets as a check on punditry
(00:53:09) Wisdom of crowds, with conditions: diversity and volume
(00:55:39) Who inspires Chris: Masih Alinejad and global dissidents
(00:57:31) Wrap and where to find Prediction News
(01:01:29) Break and reset for hour two
(01:05:44) Hour two open and sponsor read
(01:06:53) Guest intro: author Richard Spiegel on dark fantasy
(01:09:02) Balancing service, family, and writing
(01:12:57) Why write adult paranormal: real characters over tropes
(01:14:03) Series overviews: Eternal Nights and Wolves and Ravens
(01:16:22) Process and difficulty: writing the antagonists
(01:17:27) Faith, angels, and care with celestial themes
(01:18:48) Why moral cost matters: stress, breaks, and realism
(01:21:00) Vampire marriage as anchor: love, bickering, eternity
(01:23:49) No one wins alone: partnerships at the core
(01:24:30) Hard choices: sacrifice, strategy, and messy ethics
(01:25:22) Military lens: stakes, combat, and consequences
(01:27:18) Realism in dialogue and private truths
(01:30:37) On craft: outlines, organic flow, and living characters
(01:36:03) Broken Angel: darkest journey and writing through it
(01:38:44) What readers should want: thinking, immersion, respect
(01:40:37) Everyday inspiration: honoring the family rock
(01:41:28) Where to find Richard Spiegel and what’s next
(01:43:30) Closing the show: plugs, schedule, and support
- Joe "Rooz" Russiello
- Marisa Lee
- Wayne Rankin
- Rosanna Rankin
- Angela Wetuski
- Carolina Jimenez
- Christopher Gerlacher
- Richard Spegal
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