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On this episode, Saman Askari speaks with Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, a Visiting Fellow at SWP Berlin and one of the most closely followed analysts of the Iran war, about where the conflict stands on Day 38. The conversation covers how the Islamic Republic has proven more resilient than the U.S. and Israel anticipated, what lessons the regime drew from the 12-day war last year, and why Trump's unpredictability may be undermining rather than strengthening American leverage. 

Azizi walks through the internal debate inside Iran's strategic circles between advocates of massive preemptive escalation and those favoring a more incremental approach, and explains why the Strait of Hormuz has become Tehran's most powerful card. The episode also examines how public sentiment inside Iran has shifted since the war began, from initial welcome among many Iranians hoping for regime change to growing disillusionment as civilian infrastructure is destroyed with no collapse in sight. The conversation closes with a sobering look at the possible outcomes: regime change, a change from within, or the darker prospect of state collapse. 

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