The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition

This week on Rational Security, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their colleague and think-tank neighbor, Russia/Ukraine expert Eric Ciaramella, to talk over the week's big news, including:

• “Going All (Prigozh)in.” Yevgeny Prighozin, leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, went all in this past week, marching his troops into Russia and halfway to Moscow for the stated purpose of removing Russia’s military leadership, only to abruptly halt and accept exile in Belarus instead. What does this mean for the conflict in Ukraine—and future of the Putin regime?
• “Lost at Sea.” In a busy week of news, one story has gotten surprisingly little attention: the tragic sinking of an overcrowded smugglers’ boat off the coast of Greece that claimed the lives of hundreds of migrants. What does this incident tell us about the dynamics of the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean—and how the world views it?
• “Moore, Moore, Moore! (How do YOU like it?)” The Supreme Court issued decisions in three major cases this past week, including addressing the much-discussed Independent State Legislature Doctrine in Moore v. Harper. What did the Court decide, and what will these decisions mean?

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On Thursday, South Africa’s Department of International Relations confirmed it would host the 15th BRICS Summit in August. Normally, this wouldn’t make the news. But because South Africa is a signatory to the International Criminal Court, the country is obligated under international law to arrest one of the summit’s invitees—Russian President Vladimir Putin—the moment he sets foot in Johannesburg.

This presents South Africa with what Nosmot Gbadamosi has dubbed a “Putin problem.” 

Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien sat down with Nosmot, a multimedia journalist and the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Africa Brief, to discuss this diplomatic dilemma, why U.S.-South Africa relations have withered in recent months, and the incoherent Russia-Ukraine “peace mission” led by President Cyril Ramaphosa just weeks ago. They also discussed what the late Eusebius McKaiser has called South Africa’s “nonsensical nonalignment” since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year and what nonaligment even means in light of the war.

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This week, Shane sits down with law professor and hacker historian Scott Shapiro to rant, and rave, about hacker movies. From War Games to the Die Hard franchise to TV’s “Mr. Robot,” Hollywood has portrayed hackers as heroes and villains. Sometimes filmmakers get the art and culture of hacking right. Sometimes they get basic technology very wrong. But the results are almost always entertaining. 

Scott is a professor at Yale Law School and the author of the new book Fancy Bear Goes Phishing: The Dark History of the Information Age, in Five Extraordinary Hacks. 

Here’s a list of movies Shane and Scott discussed:

War Games 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086567/fullcredits/?ref_=tt_cl_sm 

Sneakers

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0105435/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 

Live Free or Die Hard, aka Die Hard 4   

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0337978/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 

Snowden 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3774114/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 

Mr. Robot 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4158110/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0_tt_7_nm_1_q_mr%2520robot 

Hackers 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0113243/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 

The Net 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0113957/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 

Die Hard 2 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099423/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0_tt_8_nm_0_q_die%2520hard%25202 

Scott’s book, Fancy Bear Goes Phishing

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374601188/fancybeargoesphishing 

Scott on Twitter 

https://twitter.com/scottjshapiro?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor 

Scott’s interview on the Lawfare podcast about his book 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-dark-history-of-the-information-age/id498897343?i=1000614119459

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How much transparency do big technology companies owe to their users? The question has become pointed in recent years as users, researchers, and politicians voice discontent about the absence of public information available about how platforms moderate and amplify content. 

Today, Meta’s President of Global Affairs, Nick Clegg, announced a new initiative to provide more information about how the company’s ranking algorithms work on Facebook and Instagram. On this episode of Arbiters of Truth, Lawfare’s occasional series on the information ecosystem, Lawfare Senior Editors Quinta Jurecic and Alan Rozenshtein talked with Clegg about how Meta has approached transparency for both users and researchers. They also discussed Clegg’s controversial 2021 essay on how Meta’s algorithms interact with user preferences.

Meta provides support for Lawfare’s Digital Social Contract paper series. This podcast episode is not part of that series, and Meta does not have any editorial role in Lawfare.

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The United States in the early 21st century has been involved in a so-called “forever” war involving military threats, interventions, occupations, counterinsurgencies, and the like. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the United States engaged in an at least superficially analogous many-decades series of interventions in the Western Hemisphere with the aim of achieving regional hegemony.

This earlier period is the topic of a new book by Sean Mirski, an attorney at Arnold & Porter and a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. The book is called “We May Dominate the World: Ambition, Anxiety, and the Rise of the American Colossus.” Jack Goldsmith sat down with Sean to discuss what he describes as the United States’ “regional rampage of staggering scope and scale” in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the aims and consequences of these military adventures, and the lessons they hold for today, both for U.S. foreign policy and for understanding the aims of rising powers like China. 

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It was a heck of a weekend in Russia. There was an insurrection, kind of? A coup, sort of? A column of troops led by Wagner chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin marched toward Moscow from Rostov-on-Don, threatened the destabilization of the Putin regime, and then in a sudden back flip, everybody stood down and the whole thing was resolved in a weird deal between the Russian president and the renegade mercenary.

To talk it all through, Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Alina Polyakova, President of the Center for European Policy Analysis; cybersecurity guru and Lawfare Contributing Editor Matt Tait; and Dmitri Alperovitch of the Silverado Policy Accelerator. They talked about what happened over the weekend, what they know and what they think, what it might mean for Vladimir Putin's regime, and what it might mean for the war in Ukraine. 

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Countries across Africa are procuring and employing surveillance tools from China. This trend is a product of China’s diplomatic strategy, its technological ambitions, and growing corporate power and reach, as well as African domestic demands. A white paper from the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) at the Atlantic Council argues that research on this topic disproportionately focuses on the motivations and ambitions of the supplier, and seeks instead to focus on the local features that drive the adoption of Chinese surveillance tools.

Lawfare’s Fellow in Technology Policy and Law, Eugenia Lostri, sat down with Bulelani Jili, the author of the white paper. Bulelani is a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative, and a Meta Research Ph.D. Fellow at Harvard University. They discussed the supply and demand drivers for surveillance technology in Africa, the risks to civil liberties that come from the deployment of these technologies without proper checks and balances, and how all this fits in the context of U.S.-China competition.

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This week on Rational Security, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by UVA Law Professor Paul Stephan to talk through the close-calls in this week’s national security news, including:

• “Xi’s All That.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing this past week, for a long delayed sit-down with President Xi Jinping to try and de-escalate the two superpowers’ tense relationship. Was this meeting a smart move or a giveaway? And what should we make of President Biden calling the Chinese leader a “dictator” shortly after Blinken’s return?
• “Adverse REPOssession.” The question of what to do with the $300 billion in Russia-related assets frozen by the United States and its allies has reemerged, with members of Congress recently introducing a new version of the REPO Act that would seize those assets and make them available as reparations for Ukraine, among other purposes. Is seizure the right way to handle these assets? What challenges and risks might such a dramatic step encounter?
• “Robo Joe.” President Biden joined a summit of leaders in the AI industry this week as part of his administration’s ongoing effort to seriously engage the policy challenges raised by AI technology. But what are the realistic prospects for regulation? And what form should it take?

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