Today’s Macro Minute explains why fiscal policy, not Fed policy, remains the dominant driver of the economy and asset markets. Darius breaks down the sharp reacceleration in deficit spending, the implications for Treasury supply and Fed balance sheet involvement, and why fiscal dominance continues to underpin the Paradigm C regime despite rising political & market volatility.

Today’s Macro Minute breaks down why December CPI supports continued disinflation—but not faster Fed cuts—while a softening labor market keeps the inflation cycle on track. Darius explains why 2026 is shaping up as a year of market broadening beyond crowded AI trades, with financials and homebuilders emerging as key real-economy beneficiaries.

Today’s Macro Minute examines the growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve and what it means for Fed independence, markets, and the Fourth Turning regime. Darius explains why AI-driven productivity—not tariffs—may ultimately end sticky inflation and why that outcome would likely support broader market leadership in 2026.

Today’s Macro Minute examines what the December Jobs Report reveals about a jobless recovery, AI-driven labor displacement, and why slowing wage growth may be accelerating the path toward income redistribution.

Today’s Macro Minute examines whether the U.S. labor market continues to weaken, unpacks mixed signals from recent labor and ISM data, and explains why managing volatility and sequence risk matters more than long-term valuation averages.

Darius breaks down how a potential revival of Venezuela’s oil industry could pressure inflation via lower energy prices, reinforcing Paradigm C. He also discusses persistent repo market stress and why it increases the odds of further Fed balance sheet support.

As 2025 comes to a close, today’s Macro Minute examines whether Wall Street can finally catch up to Main Street in 2026, why traditional managers continue to underperform, and how KISS is built for the next regime.

Today we examine the U.S. housing market outlook, highlighting why both supply and demand are set to rise, how shelter inflation is evolving, and what it means for Fed policy and portfolio construction.

Markets are pushing higher—but is the secular bear already lurking beneath the surface? In today’s Macro Minute, Darius explains why trying to time that transition can be far more dangerous than staying systematic, and why risk management, not prediction, is the edge.

The rules of monetary policy are changing. In today’s Macro Minute, Darius walks through why Fed reform is accelerating, what fiscal dominance means for investors, and why gold is emerging as the superior alternative to bonds.