The Marc Scaringi Show

Quo Vadis – Where will the Republicans Go in the 2026 Midterm Elections?

The Republican Party will likely take a beating in the upcoming Nov. 3, 2026, midterm elections. Major polls show they will lose the U.S. House of Representatives and possibly the U.S. Senate. Why? One man — the head of the Republican Party — President Donald J. Trump.

Even though Trump’s approval ratings are at historic lows, he has insisted upon making the midterms about him. The most recent national poll of likely voters by Emerson College (Sept. 21-22, 2026) puts Trump at 39% approve / 58% disapprove. This is the same territory tread by former President George W. Bush in the 2006 midterm elections when Republicans suffered major losses and lost control of both chambers of Congress.

Notwithstanding the historical record, but not surprisingly considering the man, Trump has been vigorously campaigning for Republican congressional candidates asking voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” Although it is obvious that all Trump is doing is putting a bull’s-eye on the backsides of Republican candidates and giving Democrats the very real opportunity to give it a strong kick, others disagree.

Republican strategists correctly claim the midterms are about voter turnout but add that Trump is the only one who can get out their vote. That was likely true in 2016 and certainly true in 2024, in which an ascendant Trump helped Republicans pick up six seats in the U.S. Senate including the seat of Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. But that was then; this is now. Nearly two years into Trump’s second term, Republicans are facing what is being referred to as a Democratic or blue tsunami.

Trump being Trump is enough to cause most Democrats to race to the polls to vote against him. But Trump’s visible and forceful crackdown on illegal immigration within the heartland of America, and the higher prices at the grocery store and at the gas pump have Democrats chomping at the bit. And so, with Democratic voters likely to surge to the voting booths, or at least to their mailboxes, the big question is directed to Republicans: Quo vadis?

Many Republicans will go nowhere on Nov. 3, 2026 — i.e., they’ll stay at home.

Although Trump’s hard-core MAGA base is still with him, the broader coalition that he used to win the 2016 and 2024 general elections has withered. Trump’s about-face on the Epstein files, war in Iran, attacks on U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie and podcaster Tucker Carlson, and his failure on inflation and the economy have caused disillusionment among independents, libertarians, young men, Hispanics and other non-party-aligned and new voters who formed a key part of his past successful coalitions.

According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2026, approval among validated 2024 Trump voters ages 19 to 34 has fallen to 49%, down sharply from levels above 90% early in the term and from 73% in January 2026. Why? First, these were Trump’s most conditional voters. So, they were always going to be on the edge. And, second, these voters responded to Trump when he railed against the high food and housing prices, inflation and weak economy of the Biden years and believed he could turn things around. Young voters wanted to be able to afford life in America and believed Trump could make America affordable again… _______

Marc A. Scaringi, Esq. is a practicing attorney in central Pennsylvania, a Donald J. Trump–endorsed delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention, a former attorney for Donald J. Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign, host of The Marc Scaringi Show, and an America First conservative. Follow him on X: @MarcScaringi.

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