Poor governance costs Microsoft dearly

In macro news today:
OpenAI - Sam Altman's firing wiped $50bn off Microsoft's market value
Energy prices firmed up but bond yields and the US$ lower
UK - Autumn Fiscal Statement is out on Wednesday
US - FOMC minutes due out tomorrow and durable goods data due on Weds
Argentina - elected a new president Milei who campaigned on closing the centralbank and dollarising the economy

In UK company news:
M&A season continues - #Halfords, #MMAG Music Magpie
Positive updates from Cerillion #CER and McBride #MCB

Read the accompanying blog.

Market Prognosis - Small-caps starting to outperform...

In today's macro and UK company news:
Oil prices plummeted
Emerging signs of looming deflation
Walmart warned overnight
DX Group confirmed its sale to US PE firm HIG Capital yesterday

Read the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/smallcaps-starting-to-outperform/

Hotel Chocolat goes to Mars

In macroeconomic news today:
Xi and Biden in 4 hours of talks yesterday
The equity market rally paused

...and in UK company news:
LSE - two bids announced - Mars to acquire HOTC and Youngs to acquire City Pub Group
Results from Close Brothers

Read the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/hotel-chocolat-goes-to-mars/

Behold the Christmas rally

The Market Prognosticator's thoughts on today's macro landscape:

Yesterday's better than expected UK employment wages data

The fiscal requirement for the UK under the spotlight at next week's autumn statement where Jeremy Hunt needs to finance the highest proportion of public spending to GDP since 1975

US and UK inflation is falling faster than expected - euphoria in equity markets

US-China relations - Biden and Xi meet today 

Read the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/465188/

Cake Box celebrates success

In today's macroeconomic news:
UK employment and payroll data - stronger than expected

...and UK company news we discuss:
0RHE Orsted (Danish wind power developer) - who have sacked its CFO and COO and CBOX, DPP 

Read the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/cake-box-celebrates-success/

Deflationary recession or soft landing?

In macro and market news today:
US inflation data tomorrow & UK data Wed - YoY inflation expected to decline and fears of deflationary recession
US oil inventory data, US Housing stats, China manufacturing data, US retail sales numbers and UK unemployment figures all out later this week - should paint a clearer picture by the weekend.

Read more in the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/deflationary-recession-or-soft-landing/

All a bit deflationary 

In macro and market news today:
China's reported annual inflation rate for Oct negative 0.2%, there are mixed messages from the Bank of England, Bitcoin price is now up 155% YTD and speculation of a Bitcoin ETF, Fed Powell's speech and the fear of recession for investors.

Read more in the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/all-a-bit-deflationary/

Why are oil prices so weak?

Macro thoughts for the day:
Sustained recent weakness in oil prices, the deflationary effect, Jay Powell's speech later today and China inflation data tomorrow

In UK Company news a look at JDW J D Wetherspoon:
- Cost of debt fixed & greater forecast visibility
- Tim Martin counteracts urban myths
- Wetherspoon's hotel rooms score higher in customer service satisfaction

Read the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/why-are-oil-prices-so-weak/

Cracking the US market isn't easy

In Macro News:
US - Risk assets couldn't retain recovery
Bond investors - focus on Federal Reserve (Powell's speech tomorrow)
October house prices - rise
Kings Speech today - new legislative agenda

In UK Company News:
FOUR - upgraded FY profit guidance and   
WINE - who've replaced their CEO and are finding the US market tough to crack

Read the accompanying blog: https://progressive-research.com/insights/cracking-the-us-market-isnt-easy/

No real change

The Prognosticator's daily musings suggest no real change in Macro News from last week:
Bond yields lower
Risk assets recovered
Weakening $ and strengthening £
Speeches from Jay Powell and Christine Lagarde later this week
UK GDP data - presumably some revisions

and a quiet day in terms of UK Company News...