Everyone wants the fire alarm to stop ringing. That, more than anything, is what investors are responding to as April begins. Wednesday's session is shaping up as a relief trade. Stocks are pointing higher and volatility is easing, while oil is pulling back. Markets around the world are rallying on the same hope: that the war involving Iran may be heading toward some kind of off-ramp, or at least toward a pause long enough for traders, policymakers, and regular people to catch their breath.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The final trading day of March and of the first quarter starts on a good note, with U.S. futures rising after a report suggested Donald Trump is willing to wind down the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The coming week will test whether investors can keep pretending this is a manageable scare rather than the start of a bigger economic turn. There is labor-market data arriving in a holiday-shortened week, beginning with JOLTS job openings. There are fresh readings on home prices, consumer confidence, and Chicago business activity. There are speeches from Fed officials such as Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman, as well as reports from Nike and McCormick. Markets will parse every comma for reassurance, because it is in short supply right now.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

On Wall Street, investors are bracing for a week that feels bigger than a normal turn of the calendar. Yet they remain optimistic: U.S. stocks look set to open a bit higher after the recent selloff. Oil is pushing up again, energy shares are catching a lift, aluminum producers are surging and fertilizer names are getting attention too. The second quarter starts on Wednesday: Jerome Powell is due to speak and so is John Williams. Fresh labor-market numbers are coming, capped by Friday's jobs report. Then Wall Street closes for Good Friday, which means traders have only a short window to process a week's worth of stress before the lights go out.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Donald Trump bought himself more time on Iran. He extended the deadline for possible U.S. strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until Monday, April 6, at 8 p.m. New York time. The White House says talks are underway and going well, and Iran has signaled that negotiations have in fact started, but its counterproposal shows how far apart the two sides still are. Tehran is asking for a halt to U.S. and Israeli strikes, recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for war damage. The market reaction is far from enthusiastic.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Markets are falling alongside hopes for peace: For a few days, investors were willing to believe that diplomacy might outrun escalation, but now that optimism is fading. Missiles are back in the headlines, oil is climbing again, as it appears that the United States and Iran are talking, but not quite negotiating.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

What a difference a day makes. On Wall Street, sentiment now changes so fast that journalists and commentators barely have time to rewrite the lead. U.S. stock futures are up. Oil has pulled back from its recent highs. Investors are seizing on reports that Washington has sent Iran a 15-point proposal to end the war, while mediators including Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are trying to bring both sides together as soon as Thursday. That, at least for this morning, has been enough to lift risk appetite.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

March PMI readings are starting to show what wars eventually do, far from the battlefield: they make companies more cautious, weaken demand, and cloud decision-making. In Europe, private-sector growth slowed noticeably this month. Germany's growth eased to a three-month low. France contracted at its fastest pace since October. Britain also cooled to its weakest reading since September. These numbers suggest the Middle East conflict is already moving from geopolitical risk into everyday economic activity. PMIs in the US are due later this morning.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Monday's trading started as a classic panic over energy risk. Investors came in fearing that the conflict tied to Iran was about to turn into a full oil shock, with all the usual consequences: higher inflation, weaker growth, fewer rate cuts, and another hit to risk assets. Then the script changed. At 7 am ET, Trump announced that strikes on Iranian energy sites would be postponed for five days: suddenly prices snapped violently in the other direction. The clearest move was in oil, which fell 11% just after the announcement, showing how much of the earlier surge had been driven by fears of imminent escalation. Futures, which had been deep in the red, also reversed sharply as traders rushed to unwind the worst-case trade. As I write these line, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The Middle East war is nearing its fourth week and the Strait of Hormuz remains a choke point with global consequences. This morning, stock futures pointed lower, volatility ticked higher, and the small-cap Russell 2000 looked especially fragile. The market is trying to process two messages at once. The first is alarming: reports say the Trump administration is considering moves as severe as occupying or blockading Iran's Kharg Island to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The second message is meant to calm everyone down. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has floated possible relief measures: lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea, releasing more crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and coordinating with allies such as Japan to do something similar. In other words, Washington is simultaneously helping prosecute a war and hunting for extra barrels to soften the economic backlash from that war. 

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The world's central bankers would love, just once, to have a normal week. Instead, they got a war-driven energy shock and a fresh burst of inflation anxiety. The global economy has been shoved back into a familiar trap. Energy prices are rising because violence in the Middle East is now hitting the infrastructure that keeps oil and gas flowing. And when that happens, central banks lose much of their usual room to maneuver.

Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.