The Markets Daily

It’s Friday the 13th – an inauspicious day for those who are superstitious, although, as a colleague quite rightly pointed out, it feels like we’ve been going through a continuum of Friday the 13th’s for the past 18 months, so perhaps, it is safest to approach this day as any other day during a pandemic. 

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US CPI printed at 5.4% y/y in July, flat relative to June’s print and, at 0.5% m/m, was 0.4ppt lower than June’s print in monthly terms. Core inflation fell to 4.3% y/y, lower than June’s print of 4.5%.

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In what seems like a complex game of political musical chairs, SA’s former defence minister is likely to take up the role of Speaker of the House, a position left vacant by her successor in the defence ministry. 

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The Delta variant of covid-19 continues to wreak havoc around the world. While it may not reverse economic gains made since last year’s downturn, it does seem to be stalling the recovery somewhat and increasing uncertainty, with the Peoples’ Bank of China highlighting risks to China’s economic activity in its latest quarterly report as a result of a new wave. 

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Our title refers to a line from LMFAO’s 2011 Party Rock Anthem, a song that popularised the art of shuffling. A contemporary explanation of the dance move refers to it as “a bunch of steps thrown together, resembling a seizure while standing”… The line seemed apt given the last night’s cabinet reshuffle, considering how fitfully it all came together.

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The first week of the month is traditionally focused on US non-farm payrolls. After all these years, I’m still taken aback by the power that number wields, but with the Fed toing and froing on taper talk, it’s crucial to understand changes to the US labour market 

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China is facing a new outbreak of the delta variant of covid-19 with the biggest surge in new infections being recorded since the initial outbreak. The virus has spread to almost half of China’s provinces and has prompted the closure of tourist sites and events. 

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July 2021 definitely felt like the longest month in quite a while, but we made it to the other side despite many challenges. I for one, welcomed the advent of August with bubbles in hand. I hope to hear more and more stories of the resumption and restoration of businesses affected by unrest, the implementation of support for the poorest in SA, a constantly rising vaccination tally and warmer days – the end of winter is close, and what a winter it was, let us hope, in contrast to famous line from George R R R Martin’s Game of Thrones saga, that summer is coming, and in more than just the seasonal sense.  

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Be honest – how many Olympic events have you watched this week? One? None? As the medal count rises, Olympians are left to celebrate in near silence...

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S&P have weighed in on the implications of the recent unrest on SA’s economic prospects, following sombre assessments by its peers Moody's and Fitch. The anticipated effect on growth is slightly more depressed then what its counterparts had assumed with the agency forecasting as much as a 0.7% hit to 2021 headline GDP.

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