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As is typical for January, the first two weeks felt calm and quiet and then last week activity ramped up. But this week was when we really hit our stride for the year – with the FOMC delivering its first decision for 2022, followed by the SARB’s first decision and an advance estimate of 4Q21 GDP for the US, among many other releases and events.
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The FOMC delivered no major surprise yesterday. Rates were kept on hold and the Fed’s asset purchase programme is being slowed further and will end in March.
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There is still pretty much a full working day ahead of use before the Fed’s first decision for the year is announced, but we are counting down hours now, not days. The statement and subsequent press meeting will be closely scrutinsed.
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Markets to reflect the waiting game that will be undertaken at the start of the week, in anticipation of the Fed’s first policy announcement for 2022.
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Congratulations to the class of 2021! Despite incredibly challenging circumstances over the past two years, the pass rate for the national senior certificate (NSC) improved to 76.4%. This remains below the 2019 pass rate of 81.3% though, granted the world in 2019 was vastly different to the world today.
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US President Joe Biden held his first press conference for 2022 yesterday, marking his one year in office. Headlines have been dominated by his statements on Russia’s seemingly imminent invasion of Ukraine with it being clear that not all responses by the NATO allies have been agreed to as yet, however a reaction does at least seem to be guaranteed.
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So many of the single numbers that we monitor are the sum of a number of moving parts. Seasonal patterns, be they related to weather or regular events (public holidays and school holidays for example) allow economists to give some insight into where measures of economic activity are going.
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US markets will reopen today after a long weekend and it would seem that dollar strength is dominating currency movements. This strength seems to be driven by expectations that inflation will remain strong during 2022 and push the FOMC to raise rates.
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The festive season is officially over with coastal schools reopening later this week – and so for those who have not already, we need to resume (or is it remember?) our normal routines and for those with new year’s resolutions, design our new normal.
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RMB's research offering spans across the fixed income, currency and credit markets to offer strategic insight to our clients across multiple sectors and markets.