The Markets Daily

South Africa faces a most welcome long weekend, unusual for the month of November, but with a public holiday declared for Monday to ensure that SA’s voters have ample opportunity to make it to a voting station on Monday and make their mark. 

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Markets leave me scratching my head more often than not. They don’t always move in directions that make sense, given my understanding and analysis of the factors driving the economy.

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The commentator’s curse – when you say one thing and the opposite happens (and a phrase helpfully provided to me by a wise and experienced colleague!). 

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It has been a year of upward movement – economic improvement, private-sector space launches, oil prices, inflation and markets. 

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I have said this multiple times this year, but the pandemic remains a central area of concern. Last week we highlighted the rising infection rate in the UK. But has the virus has also intensified in parts of China which has resulted in increased restrictions.

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“The seeds of a crisis are sown during the party.”

These wise and thoughtful words came from Professor Carmen Reinhart in the second session of the BIS-SARB Centenary Conference which will conclude later today. 

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Shots have been fired. Not ammunition-fueled but rather verbal shots as Prime Minister Mario Draghi has singled out the UK’s approach to opening its economy as an example of what “not to do”. 

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As much as markets are volatile, the factors driving that volatility don’t change quite so much, rather it is uncertainty around these factors that drive market volatility. As we hit mid-week, this is very much the case. Markets continue to worry about inflation and monetary authorities’ responses, a slow down in the global economic recovery and covid-19.

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Inflation remains the focal point for global markets. While it seems that the oil price has come off recent highs, it remains elevated at a level above US$80/bbl.

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It has been just over a month since Netflix released Squid Game, a Korean survival drama. In that short period, it has become the streaming giant’s most popular show and created an estimated US$900m in value, a 4000% return on the cost of production – now that is what I call a successful investment! I must be one of the very few people who hasn’t watched it yet, but honestly, given the dystopian nature of our reality, I have tended to keep my viewing habits to shows with a “feel good” factor!

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