The Mercer Ledger

The handwriting is on the wall for Iran. The regime has no intention of negotiating a settlement with Washington.

This leaves Washington with two options:

-A sustained, protracted painful war of attrition with Iran, or completely remove the IRGC that destroys the global economy

or

-Fundamentally break the Iranian government structures and trample the Iranian government into submission.

Washington appears to be moving toward the latter.

The Iranian economy isn’t heading toward collapse. It has already collapsed. Understand the difference of how peacetime and wartime metrics operate.

Pundits are pointing to Iran’s $23 Billion Reserve earned from the first part of this year as evidence that the regime can withstand the US for a prolonged engagement. This fundamentally misunderstands the true breakdown of the operation reality, and what happens to that money. In short, Iran is fundamentally bankrupt. This episode tracks why that is.

The Iranian regime claims to not be negotiating with the US. This is false, and its all about how it gets spun.

The United States firepower is a deep reserve, but mainstream media is confusing niche inventory with overall capacity.

Saudi Arabia is of utmost importance within the broader Middle East. If there will be a peace framework instituted by the Trump Administration, the Saudis will be key to achieving that goal.

Iran’s position is weak, and their bluff is running out of time.

The Strait of Hormuz drama is withholding a massive flood of oil to market. The ongoing hostilities will eventually resolve, unleashing this oversupply onto the market.

The high stakes gable between the US and Iran is burning hot. There will be no total war, or a long attrition, but a ceasefire. But how we get there remains to be seen.

The math favors a freeze, a new ceasefire, and is the only real option that satisfies the goals of all players.