The Monday Call

Is property ownership still the Kiwi dream - or has it lost its sparkle? With interest rates falling, rents rising and prices stagnating, the housing market is full of unknowns. Add a surge in listings, and it’s no wonder Kiwis are wondering if the game has changed for good.

On this Monday Call, we’re joined by Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at CoreLogic, to explore the latest data and what’s driving the market. We’ll discuss how macro factors and changing policies are shaping the future of property in New Zealand.

Kelvin’s expertise in translating complex data into clear insights makes him a top authority on the subject. Whether you’re a homeowner, investor or just curious, you’ll gain valuable knowledge from this session.

Since the 2024 United States election, cryptocurrency has gained legitimacy as an asset class in the eyes of regulators. This shift has facilitated increased institutional adoption, trading, and advancements in technology surrounding digital currencies and payments that affect everyday transactions.

This week, we are joined by Christopher Rhine, Galaxy Asset Management's liquid active crypto portfolio manager and emerging technology strategist. With over 20 years of investment experience, join us as Chris brings valuable insights into how investors are deploying capital into this rapidly evolving asset class.

It is an understatement to say that a lot has happened over the first two weeks of April.

On this The Monday Call we discuss the motivation behind the Tariff announcement from the United States, our view of the last 10 days and scenarios for the path ahead.

This session will cover:

• the initial and subsequent tariff announcements

• what tariffs could mean for the United States, New Zealand and global economies

• how NZ Funds is positioning client portfolios

• smart steps for longer-term investors to consider.

Download the presentation here.

((https://content.nzfunds.co.nz/emailarticles/monday_call/The_Monday_Call__NZ_Funds_Tariff_Discussion_April_2025.pdf))

Are New Zealand shares finally poised for a turnaround? Since the COVID lockdowns, the New Zealand share market has struggled, down 12%, while the United States market has surged 69%. With local shares lagging, is this the moment for a rebound?

Mortgage rates have stabilised, consumer spending is on the rise, and farmers and exporters are back at the forefront. With valuations looking more attractive than ever, where are the biggest opportunities to capitalise on this shift?

This week, Casey Keiper, Portfolio Manager at NZ Funds, joins James Grigor, Investment Strategist, to discuss the outlook for New Zealand shares and the factors driving the potential recovery. Join us to learn how NZ Funds, as an active manager, is positioning client portfolios to seize these emerging opportunities.

Less than a month ago, the S&P 500 hit a record high. Now it’s down 10%, sparking media headlines. But despite the drop, United States shares are still up over 8% in the past year. Market swings like this are normal, and not all global markets are reacting the same way. While Trump’s trade policies dominate the conversation, they’re just one piece of a bigger picture.

This week, Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins James Grigor, Investment Strategist, to discuss these market swings. Is this a routine correction or something bigger? Are recession concerns justified, or is the noise drowning out the facts? With Trump touting economic strength while markets retrace, what’s the bigger risk – staying in or stepping out? And how can long-term investors use volatility to their advantage?

The global order is shifting with rising autocracies, evolving alliances, and rapid technological advancements redefining international stability, trade and security – presenting important questions about New Zealand’s geopolitical position and economic direction.

Joining us from New York, Alex Grigor is an expert in international relations, cyberwarfare and AI. With over 20 years of experience, he has advised governments on foreign policy, co-authored AI and cybersecurity white papers, and worked as a geopolitical analyst, providing insights into the forces shaping our world.

We examine the role of cyberwarfare and AI in modern geopolitics and the impact of shifting alliances, including the significance of Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea. We will also explore what these macro-developments mean for global stability and trade, and how investors in New Zealand can think about the evolving landscape.

The New Zealand economy is turning a corner, with green shoots replacing red flags and confidence inching its way back. But global uncertainty remains. Trade tensions are heating up, and tariff threats loom large.

This week, top economist Cameron Bagrie joins us to discuss the outlook. Will the recovery move up a gear, or are the brakes about to be applied? Will our exports be hurt, or can we create new markets? And how should investors think about both risks and rewards in this shifting landscape?

With over 20 years of experience – including a decade as ANZ’s Chief Economist – Cameron delivers sharp, independent insights through Bagrie Economics, a boutique firm known for its no-nonsense economic analysis.

In our first Monday Call for 2025, we welcome Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, to discuss the key themes shaping the investment landscape. Despite global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and major elections, 2024 ended on a strong note for markets. Now we look at what’s next.

Markets enter 2025 with a mix of opportunities and challenges. The US remains a driving force, powered by its tech sector, but high valuations combined with high expectations and the Trump presidency add complexity. New Zealand’s share market, like many outside of the US, showed strength in late 2024, and while expectations remain modest, signs of improvement are emerging.

What can investors expect in 2025? Will the downgrades seen in New Zealand turn to upgrades? Will new tariffs and geopolitical risks hinder growth? Why is the US so highly valued, and is this at risk? And where does Bitcoin fit in? Mark’s insights will equip investors with the knowledge to navigate the year ahead.

The global economy’s return to normality in 2024 fuelled the continuation of the bull market that began in 2022, delivering a record year for many markets. At the start of the year, the average forecaster predicted just a 3% increase in the United States stock market – yet markets surged far beyond those expectations.

In this year-in-review podcast, we’ll unpack the key trends and insights. What worked for the Portfolios? What didn’t work as expected?

We also explore a range of other themes, including the rise of AI, the return of Bitcoin, and why we believe 2025 will mark New Zealand’s own return to economic normality – a positive development for local markets.