The Monday Show

SUMMARY: The government shutdown was averted in the 11th hour with a 45-day pause before we are right here again, it is jobs week as we await data to see if the labor market is continuing to cool, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge was slightly better than expected on Friday, and inflation in the Euro is showing signs of improvement.

SHOW NOTES: 

• Shutdown Averted
• It's Jobs Week
• Inflation Increases Slightly Less Than Expected in August
• Euro Area Inflation Slows More Than Expected in September

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: It is Fed decesion day but more eyes on the predictions vs. the actual rate decision, homebuilder confidence falls into negative territory, residential construction is mostly positive, and rent growth falls back to pre-pandemic levels...

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• Homebuilder Confidence Falls For 2nd Straight Month
• Mostly Positive Residential Construction Report in August
• Rents Growth Slow for the 15th Straight Month
• NICK TIMIRAOS: An Important Shift in Fed Officials’ Rate Stance Is Under Way

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: A new report from the San Francisco Fed finds that the impact of rate hikes can last much longer than originally thought, over 80% of home buyers are taking climate risks into consideration when buying a home, the trade deficit is lower than expected, and mortgage demand falls to a 27-year low...

• Monetary Policy's Lasting Effects
• 83% of Prospective Home Buyers Consider Climate Risk
• Mortgage demand drops to 27-year low
• Trade deficit lower than expected in July

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: Producer prices came in a little hotter than expected, consumer prices were a little better than expected, and housing continues to keep inflation elevated which means the Fed is in quite the conundrum if higher rates are actually pushing up home prices which are 40% of Core CPI...

NOTES:

• Housing To Blame For Inflation
• U.S. wholesale prices surprise to the upside in July, PPI shows

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: Home price gains every month this year have now erased all the losses of 2022 and have brought home prices back to all-time highs.  Affordability is now at the worse level maybe ever and Thomas Philipson in the Wall Street Journal argues the only way to save the housing market is by lowering rates...

NOTES:

• Home Prices Erase 2022 Correction in June
• THOMAS PHILIPSON: How High Mortgage Rates Fuel Inflation
• Mortgage demand drops again after FHA loan interest rate hits 21-year high

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: Friday's jobs report seemed to confirm a pattern that the labor market is in fact cooling, the bond market rallied after the report which is good news for mortgage rates, and now all eyes turn to inflation data later in the week

NOTES:

• The Cooling Labor Market
• This Week: Inflation Data

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: Busy morning with some headline numbers on ADP and mortgage demand as we deep dive into job openings dropping in June, construction spending rising for the 6th straight month, and home prices rising for the first time in 13 months...

NOTES

• Job Openings Fall to a Two-Year Low
• Construction Spending Rises in June
• Home Price Growth Rises for First Time in 13 Months

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY:  The Fed's preferred inflation gauge was pretty damn good in June, markets prepare for jobs week, and Bloomberg reports on the growing pent-up demand for housing...

NOTES:

• Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls To Two-Year Low
• This Week: It's Jobs Week
• BLOOMBERG: Lots of US Homeowners Want to Move. They Just Have Nowhere to Go

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: All eyes are on the Fed as the FOMC will announce a likely 25 basis point increase to the federal funds rate, home prices climb for the fourth straight month despite home prices falling year-over-year, consumer confidence rises to a two-year high, and mortgage demand falls for the first time in three weeks...

NOTES:

• Home Prices Continue to Fall in May
• Consumer Confidence Jumps to Two-Year High
• Mortgage Demand Falls as Rates Stay Elevated
• BLOOMBERG: Who Wants to Keep Hiking Rates and Who Doesn’t? Breaking Down the Fed’s Views

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

SUMMARY: The May Case-Shiller report shows home prices staying in negative territory for the second-straight month but saw a bigger-than-expected monthly gain, Chicago took the number one spot from Miami with the most home price growth, and housing inventory rose to the highest level since the start of the year.

LINKS

• Housing Inventory Hits Highest Level Since Start of 2023

DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201