The Money GPS

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Bad To Worse 0:00

Oil Importance 0:48

Markets Collapsing 2:47

Watch Bonds Carefully 9:04

Real Estate Key Indications 11:34

Oil Price Rise ‘Trickles Down to Everything,’ Even Your Potato Salad to Go - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-rise-trickles-down-to-everything-even-your-potato-salad-to-go-11648033200

Trafigura’s finance chief warns of commodity industry stress | Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/264173c2-794e-423b-b345-60868265d92b

Javier Blas on Twitter: "The 4-page letter from lobby group the European Federation of Energy Traders pleading emergency liquidity support in full (with my own highlights). EFET represents top trading houses, oil companies and utilities (think the likes of Vitol, BP, Trafigura, Uniper, Engie...) #OOTT https://t.co/cVxzlqrJrO" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1504182020649504775/photo/2

Clifford Asness on Twitter: "The ⁦@LME_news⁩ is now a criminal enterprise hiding behind manifest incompetence. Don’t be fooled by the horrendous stupidity below. That’s a mask. Think of all their epic incompetence as the robe Vito Genoese wore while wandering the streets incoherently. https://t.co/uRR6WHeVdQ" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1506659022274895875/photo/1

Global Bond Index Loses $2.6 Trillion in Record Slide From Peak - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/global-bond-losses-deepen-to-11-from-2021-high-most-on-record#:~:text=The%20Bloomberg%20Global%20Aggregate%20Index,the%20financial%20crisis%20in%202008.

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TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Faster Than Expected 0:00

Moment We’ve Waited For 0:38

Recession or Not 8:10

Let’s Not Forget 10:42

The One Thing 11:54

Fed Officials Lay Out Case for Further Rate Rises - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-bullard-says-big-rate-increases-lie-ahead-for-economy-11647958416?mod=hp_listb_pos3

Fed Officials Line Up With Jerome Powell in Backing Rate Hikes - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-22/fed-officials-line-up-with-powell-in-backing-rate-hikes#:~:text=Bullard%20estimates%20the%20rate%20at,probably%20the%20best%20analogy%20here.%E2%80%9D

Argentina Raises Key Rate to 44.5% as Inflation Heats Up

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-raises-key-rate-44-233011018.html

Los Angeles becomes 1st in US to reach $6 gas average

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/los-angeles-is-1st-major-city-in-u-s-to-reach-6-gas-average

Traders warn of looming global diesel shortage | Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/31f73f95-d914-46a1-b610-0c7fc5da493c

Carl Icahn says there 'very well could be a recession or even worse'

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/carl-icahn-says-there-very-well-could-be-a-recession-or-even-worse.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1647980014

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-22_12-21-33.jpg?itok=BYaaYo--

financial assets vs real assets March 2022.jpg (690×485)

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

The Scenario 0:00

Fed Talks Aggressive 0:42

Ban Everything 4:42

Recession Indication 11:39

2-4 months before cycle peak

Powell says 'inflation is much too high' and the Fed will take 'necessary steps' to address

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/powell-says-inflation-is-much-too-high-and-the-fed-will-take-necessary-steps-to-address.html

Powell says Fed will hike further and faster if necessary | AP News

https://apnews.com/article/business-prices-inflation-jerome-powell-e27343094b7863b02ee571eb32b5e23b

Bostic Says Fed Could Do Half-Point March Hike If Needed - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-30/fed-may-opt-for-50-point-rise-due-to-inflation-bostic-tells-ft#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20could%20opt,Financial%20Times%20in%20an%20interview.

Crude jumps more than 7% as EU mulls Russian oil ban

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/oil-markets-european-union-russia-saudi-refinery-output.html

Russia’s Proposed Ban On Uranium Exports Sends Stocks Soaring | OilPrice.com

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Proposed-Ban-On-Uranium-Exports-Sends-Stocks-Soaring.html

World’s Top Alumina Supplier Australia Bans Exports to Russia - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-20/world-s-top-alumina-supplier-australia-bans-exports-to-russia

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Recession Talk 0:00

Kazakhstan 0:47

Commodities and Droughts 2:35

Markets Seizing Up 9:21

Crack the U.S. Economy (Didn’t even get a chance to discuss)

Bryan MacDonald on Twitter: "More video of City Hall on fire in Almaty. Meanwhile, a state of emergency has been declared in the Kazakh capital, Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana). https://t.co/z86WThMT3W" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1478680479457071107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478683823135150080%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fkazakhstan-protesters-storm-torch-government-buildings-shots-fired-after-cabinet

Bryan MacDonald on Twitter: "Protestors have now reportedly seized Almaty Airport, despite passengers apparently being told the army was in control earlier, according to local media. Employees are allegedly being evacuated, while all flights have been canceled. https://t.co/ereYrwUPxM" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1478747084337692673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478747084337692673%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fkazakhstan-protesters-storm-torch-government-buildings-shots-fired-after-cabinet

zerohedge on Twitter: "Kazakhstan produces 42% of global uranium. It mined more uranium than Canada, Australia, and Namibia combined, which are the #2, #3 and #4 producers. https://t.co/bkxXx1LYKr https://t.co/77P53iP3ky" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1478570237251436547/photo/1

Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Creating World Supply Problems, Driving Up Prices

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-russia-commodities-shortage/

Soaring Prices for Everything in the Food Supply Chain Means More Inflation - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-19/soaring-prices-for-everything-in-the-food-supply-chain-means-more-inflation?srnd=premium-canada

Spring Outlook: Drought to expand amid warmer conditions | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

https://www.noaa.gov/news/spring-outlook-drought-to-expand-amid-warmer-conditions

Current Map | U.S. Drought Monitor

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

LME: The World’s Biggest Commodities Markets Are Starting to Seize Up - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-18/the-world-s-biggest-commodities-markets-are-starting-to-seize-up?srnd=premium-canada

China Put Can Be Game Changer for Stock Market After Global Rout - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-19/china-put-can-be-game-changer-for-stock-market-after-global-rout?srnd=premium-canada

Charting the Global Economy: Fed Lifts Rates as Inflation Builds - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-19/charting-the-global-economy-fed-lifts-rates-as-inflation-builds?srnd=premium-canada

Emergency measures can quickly cut global oil demand by 2.7 million barrels a day, reducing the risk of a damaging supply crunch - News - IEA

https://www.iea.org/news/emergency-measures-can-quickly-cut-global-oil-demand-by-2-7-million-barrels-a-day-reducing-the-risk-of-a-damaging-supply-crunch

Bill Gross warns Fed rate rises will ‘crack the US economy’ | Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/5ab01f85-bcc3-4dd7-b2ff-31195425be43

27030.jpeg (1200×1200)

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/27030.jpeg

Self-Driving Trucks Could Replace 90% of Long-Haul Jobs - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-19/self-driving-trucks-could-replace-90-of-long-haul-jobs

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

What’s Happening 0:00

Where Do We Find A Safe Place? 0:55

A Look Around the World 3:30

What To Look For Specifically 13:03

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Debt Will Be Unpayable 0:00

Fed Gets Hawkish 0:55

Too Expensive 6:10

Recession Signal 12:07

Bullard says Fed moving too slowly to quell high inflation and putting economy at risk - MarketWatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bullard-says-fed-risks-credibility-by-moving-too-slowly-to-quell-high-inflation-11647602657

Fed Governor Waller says half-point rate hikes could be needed as 'inflation is raging'

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/18/fed-governor-waller-says-half-point-rate-hikes-could-be-needed-to-tame-inflation.html

Fed’s Waller Explains Move to Favor Less Aggressive Rate Hike At FOMC Meeting - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-bullard-explains-fomc-dissent-warns-on-credibility-risks-11647604875/

Fed Hawks Seek Half-Point Interest-Rate Hikes With Data ‘Screaming’ Action - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-18/fed-hawks-seek-half-point-hikes-amid-data-screaming-action

U.S. Pre-owned Home Sales Decline to a Six-Month Low - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-18/sales-of-u-s-previously-owned-homes-decline-to-a-six-month-low#:~:text=Sales%20of%20previously%20owned%20U.S.,high%20prices%20deterred%20potential%20buyers.

Shoppers Reach Their Limits on Some Price Increases - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoppers-reach-their-limits-on-some-price-increases-11647509580?mod=hp_lead_pos5

Janet Mills, Maine governor, proposes $850 inflation-relief checks - Washington Times

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

What’s the Deal? 0:00

Stock Market 0:28

Stagflation 5:19

The Fed 6:27

Quit Your Job 9:25

Hedge Funds Win 13:41

Steve Deppe, CMT on Twitter: "I didn't have time to share this yesterday but I find it hysterical. The S&P 500 hasn't gained 2%+ on back to back days all that often. But, it managed to do it on 3/15 & 3/16 here in 2022. And it managed to do it on 3/15 and 3/16 in 2000 too. We live in a simulation." / Twitter

https://twitter.com/SJD10304/status/1504518229745561602?s=20&t=_j0xiZfWxMSRnFXuJtfJQw

5s10s 2022-03-17_7-18-53_0.jpg (1280×618)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/5s10s%202022-03-17_7-18-53_0.jpg?itok=J8CKlIqF

Alibaba, Tencent Retreat After Two-Day Rally - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-18/chinese-stocks-retreat-after-biggest-two-day-rally-since-1998?srnd=premium-canada

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-17_12-37-22.jpg?itok=9jFzKeAy

The Fed needs to get a lot tougher to stop soaring inflation

https://nypost.com/2022/03/16/the-fed-needs-to-get-a-lot-tougher-to-stop-soaring-inflation/

Bond Traders Stunned by Hawkish Fed Are Sounding Growth Alarm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-stunned-hawkish-fed-000428923.html

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TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Recession 0:00

Interest Rates 0:41

Shortages 5:53

China Friendly To Ukraine? 11:19

(4) Viraj Patel on Twitter: "Dovish hike from the BoE. Markets are pricing in a UK recession in just over a year and BoE probably realising they could be adding to these risks. Think we’re getting close to a pause in the hiking cycle with “wait and see” likely to see how UK economy adjusts $GBP https://t.co/jTDmLr8IRX" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/VPatelFX/status/1504428943079792641/photo/1

Bank Rate increased to 0.75% - March 2022 | Bank of England

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/march-2022?sf162230440=1

Brazil hikes key interest rate ninth straight time

https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-hikes-key-interest-rate-221710071.html

Central banks, summary of current interest rates

https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx

Russia’s Inflation Rate Surpasses Annual Target in Two Weeks - The Moscow Times

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/16/russias-inflation-rate-surpasses-annual-target-in-two-weeks-a76969

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/-1x-1_11.jpg?itok=kMSVh_aw

Russia’s Inflation Shock Is Giving Way to Soviet-Style Shortages - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/russia-s-inflation-shock-is-giving-way-to-soviet-style-shortages?sref=6uww027M

Fertilizer Sanctions Split Farm Superpowers as Costs Surge - Bloombergv

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

It’s On 0:00

Bond Market Mayhem 0:36

China Market Chaos 9:02

Recession Turmoil 11:17

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/intraday%20composite.jpg?itok=ZeLrbxhW

Jerome Powell Assures Americans Economy Won’t Tip Into Recession - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/powell-ramps-up-inflation-fight-in-economy-tough-enough-to-cope?srnd=premium-canada

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/5s10s%20inverts%205y10%2C%202022-03-16_14-35-35.jpg?itok=8R8sZ7xh

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2s10s%203.16.jpg?itok=bL-Rp3_e

Bond Traders See Red Flag After Hawkish Fed Hikes Rates - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/bond-traders-stunned-by-a-hawkish-fed-are-sounding-growth-alarms

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https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iUSOZ8oa8DCc/v2/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/1240x-1.png

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Fed%20funds%20vs%20CPI.jpg?itok=5WkeQFve

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/HSI%203.16.jpg?itok=O7v1JgwV

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

It Happened 0:00

What’s Up? 0:22

Markets React 3:44

What’s Down? 5:08

The Deeper Knowledge 9:49

Fed expects to increase 7 times this year

Fed expects balance sheet reduction to be faster than previous cycle

Inflation was higher than expected

Federal Reserve meeting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/federal-reserve-meeting.html

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220316a.htm

The Money GPS - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/c/TheMoneyGPS/community

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/BS%20shrinkage.jpg?itok=cnHrwtj1

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20cash%20levels%20march%202022.jpg?itok=Ozdu391e

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/global%20growth%20pessimism.jpg?itok=fMSyB9Ln

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