The Money GPS

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Every Day 0:00

MARKET MAYHEM 0:45

DISTORTIONS 7:40

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 MARKETS ARE OVERVALUED BY NEARLY EVERY METRIC

#2 MARKETS DO NOT FALL BECAUSE OF OVERVALUATION ALONE

#3 WATCH VERY CLOSELY, INVEST WITH PRUDENCE. INFLATION PRIMARY

share of government debt held by "price sensitive" investors - what the ECB dubbed dubbed the Free Float

actual and fair values.jpg (614×498)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/actual%20and%20fair%20values.jpg?itok=iHkXzu4I

Market is melting up to new records, but 2022 looks rough: Wells Fargo

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/31/market-is-melting-up-to-new-records-but-2022-looks-rough-wells-fargo.html

Market is a bad inflation report away from correction: Jeremy Siegel

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/21/market-is-a-bad-inflation-report-away-from-correction-jeremy-siegel.html

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Freedom 75? 0:00

PENSION FIASCO 0:59

COMPANIES PRICES 7:16

YOUR COFFEE 9:30

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 PENSIONS ARE RESORTING TO LEVERAGE TO ACHIEVE RETURNS

#2 PENSIONS HAVE NO POSSIBLE WAY TO ACTUALLY PAY UP

#3 DON’T RELY ON FIXED INCOME. REDUCE EXPENSES, INCREASE INCOME

The State Pension Funding Gap: Plans Have Stabilized in Wake of Pandemic | The Pew Charitable Trusts

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2021/09/the-state-pension-funding-gap-plans-have-stabilized-in-wake-of-pandemic

the_state_pension_funding_gap_650px_figure4.png (650×565)

https://www.pewtrusts.org/-/media/data-visualizations/infographics/2021/09/state-pension-funding-gap/the_state_pension_funding_gap_650px_figure4.png?mw=2580&hash=C552F0CD69101A0A89A09619974911FA

the_state_pension_funding_gap_650px_figure6b.png (650×406)

https://www.pewtrusts.org/-/media/data-visualizations/infographics/2021/09/state-pension-funding-gap/the_state_pension_funding_gap_650px_figure6b.png?mw=2580&hash=172E539DAED7D2BC5E0C479356C7D5BF

Pritzker Administration sloughs off Illinois pension liabilities passing $500 billion mark, dissembles on pension crisis again – Wirepoints | Wirepoints

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

It’s Happening 0:00

INFLATION NATION 0:54

DOWN FROM HERE? 7:36

GONE TOO FAR 11:09

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 WHENEVER PRICES RISE, PEOPLE REVOLT

#2 REFUSE TO ACKNOWLEDGE PROBLEMS ACCURATELY

#3 PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENTS AND ENVIRONMENT

Soaring Fuel Prices Stoke Rush to Stockpile Firewood Across U.S. - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-20/americans-load-up-on-firewood-as-home-heating-costs-skyrocket?srnd=premium-canada

1400x-1.png (1400×787)

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ijX32CEMNVC8/v1/1400x-1.png

U.S. Inflation: Which Categories Have Been Hit the Hardest?

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-inflation-which-categories-have-been-hit-the-hardest/

Used Vehicle Value Index

https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html

Peak season over: Container-ship arrivals in Southern California fall - FreightWaves

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/peak-season-over-container-ship-arrivals-to-southern-california-sink

SK Hynix halts Chinese chip plant upgrade over U.S. restrictions - Nikkei Asia

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/SK-Hynix-halts-Chinese-chip-plant-upgrade-over-U.S.-restrictions?utm_campaign=GL_asia_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=1&pub_date=20211119190000&seq_num=8&si=79447

PEG chart_0.jpg (621×585)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/PEG%20chart_0.jpg?itok=hpw7XP3S

26210.jpeg (1200×1200)

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/26210.jpeg

Today, people are devastated by the effects of inflation. Only 1 thing can disrupt it.

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Unfolding 0:00

THE ONE THING 0:41

DISRUPTIONS 5:50

CHANGING TIMES 13:19

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 A RECESSION OR STRONGER CAN REDUCE DEMAND, SLOW INFLATION

#2 HIGHER INTEREST RATES CAN FACILITATE SAVINGS AND PRUDENCE

#3 BECOME AS SELF SUFFICIENT AS POSSIBLE TO REDUCE IMPACT

spot inflation 20%.jpg (1021×531)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spot%20inflation%2020%25.jpg?itok=-2_eHr-K

10Y real yields.jpg (880×477)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10Y%20real%20yields.jpg?itok=wRPOyBnS

Fed May Discuss Taper Pace at December Meeting, Clarida Says - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-19/fed-may-discuss-taper-pace-at-december-meeting-clarida-says?srnd=economics-vp

Federal Reserve's Christopher Waller Favors Faster Taper - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-19/fed-s-waller-favors-faster-taper-on-job-gains-inflation-surge

As inflation surges, Fed to debate faster taper, earlier rate hikes | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKBN2I422F

DC `1.jpg (1239×1148)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/DC%20%601.jpg?itok=1Zh80KQj

China’s Big Commodity Inflation Scare Is Easing -- For Now - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-19/china-s-big-commodity-inflation-scare-is-easing-for-now?srnd=premium-canada

Vancouver Is Completely Cut Off by Land After Deadly Storm - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/you-can-t-get-to-vancouver-by-car-or-train-after-epic-storm

Vancouver Sees Fuel Rations, Highway Ban as Flood Impact Spreads - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-19/british-columbia-flooding-causes-fuel-shortages-at-some-stations?srnd=premium-canada

2021-2022 WRA Draft

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_WRA_2021.pdf

How to make a billion when your ships are stuck at anchor - FreightWaves

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-to-make-a-billion-when-your-ships-are-stuck-at-anchor

Ford, GM Step Into Chip Business - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-enters-semiconductor-business-amid-chip-shortage-impact-11637242202?mod=djemalertNEWS

China blasts Australian 'saber wielding' with nuclear submarine deal

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2021/11/19/670946/Chinese-diplomat-Wang-Xining-saber-wielder-AUKUS-alliance-submarines-

A storm is coming, inflation is rising, and the public is unprepared. What will be your fate?

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

The Storm 0:00

DEEP FREEZE 0:49

SKY HIGH 4:41

ENERGY CHANGE 10:12

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 STIMULUS AND ECONOMIC HEADWINDS HAVE PUSHED PRICES UP

#2 WEATHER EVENTS ARE CREATING MAJOR DISRUPTIONS

#3 MAKE PREPARATIONS TODAY. FOOD. ENERGY. AND A PLAN.

Exclusive: China reserve bureau working on crude oil release | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-china-reserve-bureau-working-crude-oil-release-2021-11-18/

2021-11-18_11-54-58.png (1280×720)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-11-18_11-54-58.png?itok=JXC7jwLc

cold.jpg (780×438)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cold.jpg?itok=osBk7yKC

Vancouver Is Completely Cut Off by Land After Deadly Storm - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/you-can-t-get-to-vancouver-by-car-or-train-after-epic-storm?srnd=premium-canada

Storms at Canada’s Biggest Port Leave Grain Stuck in Prairies - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/storms-at-canada-s-biggest-port-leaves-grain-stuck-in-prairies?srnd=premium-canada

Thanksgiving dinner will cost 14% more this year, annual survey finds - Portland Press Herald

https://www.pressherald.com/2021/11/18/thanksgiving-dinner-will-cost-14-more-this-year-annual-survey-finds/

Inflation has 88% of Americans worried. Here's how they will cut back

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/inflation-has-88percent-of-americans-worried-heres-how-they-will-cut-back.html

John Deere UAW Members Ratify a 6-Year Agreement With Substantial Gains | UAW

https://uaw.org/john-deere-uaw-members-ratify-6-year-agreement-substantial-gains/

CVS store closures: To shut about 300 stores a year over next three years

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/cvs-store-closures-to-shut-about-300-stores-a-year-over-next-three-years.html

Starbucks, Amazon open cashier-less store in Manhattan

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/starbucks-amazon-open-cashier-less-store-in-manhattan

What Is World's Craziest Real Estate Market? Renters Pay Heavy Price in Berlin - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/what-is-world-s-craziest-real-estate-market-renters-pay-heavy-price-in-berlin

More chief executives join the 'Great Resignation' | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/more-chief-executives-join-great-resignation-2021-11-18/

solar-power-by-country.jpg (1200×1846)

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/solar-power-by-country.jpg

Sweetgreen (SG) Stock Doubles Valuation in Trading Debut After IPO - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/salad-chain-sweetgreen-doubles-valuation-in-trading-debut

like.jpg (1920×1080)

file:///Volumes/GoogleDrive/My%20Drive/GPS/like.jpg

Venezuela Turns to Flashy Casinos, SUVs and U.S. Dollars for an Economic Boost - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-turns-to-flashy-casinos-suvs-and-u-s-dollars-for-an-economic-boost-11637247602

bfmE047.jpg (986×623)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmE047.jpg?itok=Hvnn2dQ1

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Making Sense 0:00

TEMPORARY? 0:41

GETTING HIGH 6:46

INVESTOR PLAYBOOK 11:57

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 NARRATIVE OF TRANSITORY INFLATION MUST PERSIST TO JUSTIFY RISK

#2 HIGHER INFLATION MEANS HIGHER INTEREST RATES, WEAK STOCKS

#3 BETTER TO BE PREPARED ALWAYS, ASSETS AND SITUATION

Powell’s Five Inflation Benchmarks Are Starting to Flash Amber - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/powell-s-five-inflation-benchmarks-are-starting-to-flash-amber

Greed outpacing fear in world markets, Goldman Sachs CEO says | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/greed-outpacing-fear-world-markets-goldman-sachs-ceo-says-2021-11-17/#:~:text=%22I%20think%20markets%20generally%20when,Solomon%20told%20the%20Singapore%20event.

Goldman Sachs CEO Says Market Greed Is Now Outpacing Fear - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/goldman-s-solomon-warns-pandemic-exit-could-get-bumpy

(4) Paul Krugman on Twitter: "Trying to clarify my own thoughts on inflation. I got inflation wrong; I didn't see the current surge coming. But why? I didn't think the fiscal stimulus early this year would boost demand as much as Summers et al predicted ... and, in fact, so far it hasn't 1/" / Twitter

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Very Different 0:00

WHAT SPENDING? 0:46

STOKING INFLATION 4:48

ENERGY COSTS 11:46

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 GOVERNMENTS ARE CREATING THIS VERY CRISIS

#2 INFLATION CANNOT BE STOPPED ONCE IT RISES (AND IGNORED)

#3 ASSESS YOUR SITUATION, INVEST AND PREPARE FOR HIGHER INFLATION

Current Inflation Rate Set to Spoil Holiday Season for Struggling Families - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-16/inflation-set-to-spoil-holidays-for-struggling-u-s-families

Wall Street is set for biggest bonus increases since 2009

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/wall-street-is-set-for-biggest-bonuses-since-great-recession-report.html

bfm58B1.jpg (1003×628)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm58B1.jpg?itok=CYc8WVUT

Fed’s Bullard Urges More Hawkish Policy to Offset Inflation Rise - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-16/fed-s-bullard-urges-more-hawkish-policy-to-offset-inflation-rise

Justin Trudeau’s Spending Plans Risk Stoking Inflation in Canada, Scotia Says - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-16/trudeau-risks-stoking-inflation-with-stimulus-plans-scotia-says

Supermarkets Alter Layouts, Use Decoys to Fill Gaps Left by Shortages - WSJ

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

It’s Happening 0:00

BIG MISTAKE 0:30

TRAINING WHEELS 10:45

NO RETURN 13:47

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 MARKETS BELIEVE THE FED WILL TIGHTEN AND BONDS ARE WATCHING

#2 INFLATION IS NOT TEMPORARY AND PEOPLE ARE NOT KEEPING UP

#3 IGNORE THE NOISE AND FOCUS ON YOUR PERSONAL SITUATION

Fed is losing credibility over its inflation narrative, Mohamed El-Erian says

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/15/mohamed-el-erian-says-fed-is-losing-credibility-over-its-inflation-narrative.html

core inflation gs.jpg (810×389)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/core%20inflation%20gs.jpg?itok=clYeSwmR

Federal Reserve Put Itself Between a Rock and a Hard Place - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-15/federal-reserve-put-itself-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place?sref=ZMFHsM5Z

Ex-Fed Officials Dudley, Lacker See Rates Rising to at Least 3% - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/dudley-sees-fed-raising-rate-target-to-3-4-to-fight-inflation

Inflation emerges as defining economic challenge of Biden presidency, with no obvious solution at hand

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/inflation-emerges-as-defining-economic-challenge-of-biden-presidency-with-no-obvious-solution-at-hand/ar-AAQGIoE

Market Bets on a Fed Interest-Rate Mistake - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/market-bets-on-a-fed-interest-rate-mistake-11636977780?mod=latest_headlines

Bank of Canada Is ‘Closer’ to Raising Rates, Macklem Says - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/bank-of-canada-getting-closer-to-raising-rates-macklem-says?srnd=premium-canada

bfmE476_0.jpg (1003×625)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmE476_0.jpg?itok=MFozdsfk

norm growth.jpg (1280×854)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/norm%20growth.jpg?itok=7cbgOg2G

training wheels come off 1.jpg (1280×1273)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/training%20wheels%20come%20off%201.jpg?itok=4yziSDGn

Stock-market-call-and-put-option-volume.png (1185×446)

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Stock-market-call-and-put-option-volume.png

NAAIM-Index-Above-97.png (1067×594)

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NAAIM-Index-Above-97.png

Heavy Rains Shut Railroad Tracks Near Canada’s Biggest Port - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/heavy-rains-shut-railroad-tracks-near-canada-s-biggest-port?srnd=premium-canada

It’s Finally Getting Cold and Europe Doesn’t Have Enough Gas - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/it-s-finally-getting-cold-and-europe-doesn-t-have-enough-gas?sref=6uww027M

Record Surge Of Gas Prices At The Pump Reach New Heights – CBS San Francisco

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2021/11/15/record-surge-of-gas-prices-at-the-pump-reach-new-heights/

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Bigger 0:00

CHINA CREDIT 0:56

RISKS 6:31

OVERWHELMED 10:51

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 CHINA CREDIT IMPULSE TOP INDICATOR SHOWING MORE SLOWDOWN

#2 VERY DIFFERENT POLICY THAN MOST OTHER COUNTRIES SPARKS QUESTIONS

#3 BE PREPARED FOR ANY POSSIBLE OUTCOME AS BEST YOU CAN

bfm9027.jpg (1003×540)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9027.jpg?itok=4rt8sbjs

bfm2ABC.jpg (1003×892)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2ABC.jpg?itok=Zu_LPJoh

Mystery of China’s Huge Dollar Surplus Baffles Global Markets - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/mystery-of-china-s-huge-dollar-surplus-baffles-global-markets

A warning from Chinese bonds | Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/7953a046-c4c2-4377-85b3-44acec1f938b

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

FRB: H.4.1 Release-- Factors Affecting Reserve Balances -- Friday, November 12, 2021

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20211112/

Treasury Securities Operational Details - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details#current-schedule

Homes Now Typically Sell in a Week, Forcing Buyers to Take Risks - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/homes-typically-sell-in-a-week-forcing-buyers-to-take-risks-11636632000

Inflation Surge Whips Up Market Froth - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-surge-whips-up-market-froth-11636817049?mod=hp_lead_pos3

Clock ticks closer to midnight for overwhelmed California ports

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/clock-ticks-closer-to-midnight-for-overwhelmed-california-ports

Crunch at Ports May Mean Crisis for Family Farms – DNyuz

https://dnyuz.com/2021/11/14/crunch-at-ports-may-mean-crisis-for-family-farms/

Supermarkets Alter Layouts, Use Decoys to Fill Gaps Left by Shortages - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supermarkets-alter-layouts-use-decoys-to-fill-gaps-left-by-shortages-11636894800

(1) Elon Musk on Twitter: "@SenSanders I keep forgetting that you’re still alive" / Twitter

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1459891238384115722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1459891238384115722%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fi-keep-forgetting-youre-still-alive-musk-taunts-bernie-sanders-asks-if-he-should-sell-more

How the White House is Planning to Ease the Global Chip Shortage - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-13/white-house-spurns-intel-plan-to-boost-chip-production-in-china?sref=6uww027M

bfmEA24.jpg (987×542)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmEA24.jpg?itok=f9Y61kCq

bfm89DB_0.jpg (987×537)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm89DB_0.jpg?itok=KV8OISAT

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Life Changing 0:00

FINANCIAL MARKETS 0:52

ECONOMIC CHAOS 5:23

SET THE STAGE 10:33

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 THE ECONOMY (NOT STOCKS) HAS BEEN WEAKENING FOR YEARS

#2 HISTORY HAS SHOWN DEBT LEADS TO BATTLES BETWEEN NATIONS

#3 PREPAREDNESS IS MORE ESSENTIAL NOW THAN EVER

Elon Musk sold about $6.9 billion in Tesla stock this week

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/13/elon-musk-sells-another-1point2-billion-of-tesla-stock.html

Tim Cook nets $355 million after selling Apple shares worth $750 million he received in a performance payout | Markets Insider

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tim-cook-apple-stock-performance-payout-share-award-sale-2021-8

Statement Regarding Treasury Securities, Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities, and Agency Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Operations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_211103

Treasury Securities Operational Details - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details

U.S. Port Congestion Pushes Record Wait Times as Ships Keep Rolling In - Bloomberg