The Money GPS

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Cryptocurrencies 0:00

BITCOIN PRICE 1:58

WHY SURGING? 3:22

CAPITAL CONTROLS 7:56

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 PRICE OF BITCOIN HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY

#2 TWO POSITIVE FACTORS OVERSHADOWED REGULATION

#3 FED MEETING MAY GIVE CLUES FOR MARKET RISK TOLERANCE

Adv-Decline-50-dma.png (990×438)

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Adv-Decline-50-dma.png

Bitcoin Briefly Tops $50,000 Level for First Time Since Mid-May - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-23/bitcoin-nears-the-50-000-level-for-the-first-time-since-mid-may?srnd=premium-canada

Bitcoin (BTC) price tops $50,000 hitting a more than 3-month high

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/23/bitcoin-btc-price-tops-50000-hitting-a-more-than-3-month-high.html

Bitcoin in Afghanistan: Cryptocurrency, the Taliban, and capital flight

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/21/bitcoin-afghanistan-cryptocurrency-taliban-capital-flight.html

Fed-Jackson Hole: Trying to avoid a tantrum amidst 'taper talk'

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/fed-officials-will-seek-to-avoid-a-tantrum-as-they-keep-taper-talk-going-at-jackson-hole.html

Afghan Central Banker Sees Currency Drop, Capital Controls Ahead - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-22/afghan-central-banker-sees-currency-drop-capital-controls-ahead

German Exporters Face Rising Pressure From China in Home Market - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-22/german-exporters-face-rising-pressure-from-china-in-home-market

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Making Connections 0:00

REAL ESTATE 1:50

COMMODITIES 7:18

MARKETS UNCERTAIN 10:10

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 REAL ESTATE DEBT IS AT ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS GLOBALLY

#2 THE WEAKEST LINK IS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

#3 THE WORST HASN’T BEEN SEEN AND MANY WILL FAIL

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/081921-TradingSecrets-05.png?itok=g6wK1HIV

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https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Picture8.png

The Daily — Monthly credit aggregates, June 2021

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210819/dq210819b-eng.htm

081921-TradingSecrets-07.png (900×507)

https://www.tcw.com/-/media/Assets/Insights/2021/08/081921-TradingSecrets-07.png?h=29%25&w=50%25&la=en&hash=8166ED09D9093AC9C65B7229C430B236BD4514CE

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https://www.tcw.com/-/media/Assets/Insights/2021/08/081921-TradingSecrets-08.png?h=33%25&w=50%25&la=en&hash=92E86B8344B61EE09ED62BB70BA322BDB848D147

Sinking Lumber Prices Force Canadian Mill to Curb Production - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-20/tumbling-lumber-prices-force-canadian-mill-to-curb-production

Lumber | 1978-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote | Chart | Historical

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/leisure%20services%20decelerating.jpg?itok=1KC3LGNd

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/other%20spending%20bofa.jpg?itok=G5aGJsOj

Wall Street Just as Baffled About Markets as It Was Last Year - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-21/wall-street-just-as-baffled-about-markets-as-it-was-last-year

Michael Burry’s Pretty Big Short Hinges on Treasuries Sinking - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-21/michael-burry-s-pretty-big-short-hinges-on-treasuries-sinking?srnd=premium-canada

In the Beginning 0:00

Is the Future Inflation or Deflation? 0:23

Heavy Levels of Deflation in Assets? 1:45

Deflation then Helicopter Money 3:17

Will the Fed Taper? 6:18

Are There Any Consequences? 8:50

Gold In Your Portfolio 11:59

SDR: The Next Reserve Currency? 14:42

Crypto Price vs Tech 21:44

Biggest Risk To Financial System? 27:23

LynAlden.com @LynAldenContact 29:50

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Your Portfolio 0:00

ULTRA VALUATIONS 0:40

ANOMALIES 6:34

ECONOMIC MISTAKES 12:46

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 SOME SUGGEST BEGINNING OF BULL MARKET

#2 OTHERS SAY FULL OF BULL

#3 INVESTORS SHOULD NEVER BELIEVE EITHER. LOSE EMOTIONS

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/GPC819213real.png?itok=_cLvSsGO

GPC819214.png (620×506)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/GPC819214.png?itok=uI1yfH5p

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 1968-2021 Data

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index

United States Initial Jobless Claims | 1967-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims

CRB Commodity Index | 1994-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote | Chart

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb

The S&P 500 hasn’t fallen by at least 5% in nearly 200 sessions — Here’s what history says happens next - MarketWatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-hasnt-fallen-by-at-least-5-in-nearly-200-sessions-heres-what-history-says-happens-next-11629401149

Cathie Wood says stocks are not in a bubble, thinks investors betting against her fund are off base

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/cathie-wood-says-stocks-are-not-in-a-bubble-thinks-investors-betting-against-her-fund-are-off-base.html

U.S. Stocks End Mixed After Bumpy Trading Day - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-08-19-2021-11629359284

US Housing Market: Landlords Are Jacking Up Rents at Record Speeds - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/housing-hunt-turns-to-desperation-with-record-rise-in-u-s-rents

California congestion nears new high, East Coast gridlock worsens

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/california-congestion-nears-new-high-east-coast-gridlock-worsens

Chip Crisis Threatens to Cut Auto Output by 7.1 Million Cars - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/chip-crisis-threatens-to-cut-auto-output-by-7-1-million-cars?srnd=premium

Amazon Plans to Open Large Retail Locations Akin to Department Stores - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-retail-department-stores-11629330842

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Taper Tantrums 0:00

FED MADNESS 0:28

WILD STOCKS 7:26

INFLATION 9:32

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 THE FED IS NOW OFFICIALLY TALKING TAPER IN 2021

#2 MARKET WILL REACT NEGATIVELY

#3 RISKIER ASSETS COULD SEE SELL OFF, VALUE COULD COMEBACK

Repo and Reverse Repo Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp

rev repo 8.18.jpg (1269×656)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/rev%20repo%208.18.jpg?itok=GN7bUT-D

Dow, S&P 500 book worst declines in a month after Fed minutes show taper plans later this year - MarketWatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-point-to-consolidation-ahead-of-fed-minutes-11629285529

Fed minutes July 2021: Preparing for a taper this year

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/18/fed-minutes-july.html

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmE246_0.jpg?itok=Y-DOZQzX

Minutes highlight a Fed split over labor market, bond-buying taper | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-minutes/minutes-highlight-a-fed-split-over-labor-market-bond-buying-taper-idUSKBN2FJ0WZ

U.S. Wealth Inequality: Gap Soars With Jackson Hole Coming at the Top - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/u-s-wealth-gap-rises-with-jackson-hole-coming-at-the-top

Palantir Buys Gold Bars as Hedge Against ‘Black Swan Event’ - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-17/palantir-buys-51-million-in-gold-bars-accepts-payment-in-gold

United States Housing Starts | 1959-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

Canadian Inflation Jumps to 3.7%, Creating Election Trouble for Justin Trudeau - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/canadian-inflation-jumps-to-match-highest-level-since-2003

Wall Street Is the Most Bullish on Stocks in Almost Two Decades - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-14/wall-street-is-the-most-bullish-on-stocks-in-almost-two-decades

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Goldman%20latest%20GDP%20forecast_1.jpg?itok=_0_Y9xNR

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/GS%20GDP%20forecast%20aug%202021.jpg?itok=19a2OOU5

Soaring Cost of Food Is Forcing Families to Scrimp at the Dinner Table - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-08-18/soaring-cost-of-food-is-forcing-families-to-scrimp-at-the-dinner-table

One-third of Americans couldn’t cover $2,000 before the pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/18/one-third-of-americans-couldnt-cover-2000-before-the-pandemic.html

61% of Americans paid no federal income taxes in 2020, Tax Policy Center says

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/18/61percent-of-americans-paid-no-federal-income-taxes-in-2020-tax-policy-center-says.html

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Maxed Out 0:00

CONSUMER 0:35

THE FED 4:00

BIG MONEY 7:03

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 WEAK SALES SUGGEST ECONOMY IS SLOWING

#2 INVESTORS HOPE FOR THE FED TO WAIT FOR TAPER

#3 BELIEF IS THAT INFLATION WON’T BE SUSTAINED

Dow, S&P 500 snap run of record highs as stocks end lower after disappointing retail sales - MarketWatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-fall-ahead-of-retail-sales-data-11629193943

Weak Retail Sales Offer Preview of Coming Attractions as Delta Variant Spreads - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/weak-retail-sales-offer-preview-of-coming-attractions-as-delta-variant-spreads-11629213519

U.S. Retail Sales | 1992-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar | Historical

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales

Cotton | 1913-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote | Chart | Historical

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cotton

CRB Commodity Index | 1994-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote | Chart

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb

Treasury Market Liquidity Sours as Traders Gird for Taper Clues - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-17/treasury-market-liquidity-sours-as-traders-gird-for-taper-clues

Analysis: As investors look to Jackson Hole, options markets see 'a lot of nothing' | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-markets-volatilty-analysis/analysis-as-investors-look-to-jackson-hole-options-markets-see-a-lot-of-nothing-idUSKBN2FI213

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20chart%205%20peak%20boom.jpg?itok=Mw81lAq6

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20chart%204.jpg?itok=DqWL3a6O

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20chart%2010.jpg?itok=N71WGCCu

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20chart%209.jpg?itok=gDmRYPCW

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20chart%208%20inflation%20transitory.jpg?itok=gFWqCKeC

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fms%20chart%2029%20rate%20hike.jpg?itok=Smyj_cuo

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20chart%2027.jpg?itok=aK3oAaG5

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/global%20FMS%20tail%20risk.jpg?itok=wwgDl7Lk

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20chart%2019.jpg?itok=jkrwm0tZ

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TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

What’s Happening Today? 0:00

Asset Sales 0:30

China 4:27

U.S. Debt 7:56

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 MORE INVESTMENT THAN EVER BEFORE FROM RETAIL TRADERS

#2 EVERYTHING RELYING ON MAINTAINING POLICY

#3 TECH INVESTORS VERY WORRIED ABOUT REGULATION

Repo and Reverse Repo Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp

Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022 - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-ending-asset-purchases-by-mid-2022-11629106200

Higher inflation target could trigger jobs boom, former Fed staffers say | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-inflation/higher-inflation-target-could-trigger-jobs-boom-former-fed-staffers-say-idUSKBN2FH0Z9

S&P 500 doubles from its pandemic bottom, marking the fastest bull market rally since WWII

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/sp-500-doubles-from-its-pandemic-bottom-marking-the-fastest-bull-market-rally-since-wwii.html

Gold | 1968-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote | Chart | Historical | News

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold

Sugar | 1912-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Price | Quote | Chart | Historical

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/sugar

China tech regulation: Draft rules ban unfair internet competition; Tencent, Alibaba slide

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/china-tech-regulation-draft-rules-ban-unfair-internet-competition-tencent-alibaba-slide.html

China economy under pressure as factory output, retail sales growth slow sharply | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-july-industrial-output-up-64-retail-sales-miss-forecasts-2021-08-16/

United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 2001-2021 Data

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ny-empire-state-manufacturing-index

China data 2021-08-16_7-26-26_0.jpg (1266×675)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/China%20data%202021-08-16_7-26-26_0.jpg?itok=DhgJnDqB

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20CPI%20PP_0.jpg?itok=3wKx4x6L

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1135.jpg?itok=4M38GKQ8

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6F84.jpg?itok=L8kKH-du

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry ramps up his bet against Tesla - and reveals a new wager against Cathie Wood's Ark Invest | Markets Insider

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-tesla-stock-cathie-wood-ark-etf-2021-8

SEC FORM 13-F Information Table

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000156761921015632/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml

Burry Q2 13F.jpg (1012×585)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Burry%20Q2%2013F.jpg?itok=7xkO5v3B

(7) Profile / Twitter

https://twitter.com/michaeljburry

(7) Michael Burry Archive (@BurryArchive) / Twitter

https://twitter.com/BurryArchive

Michael Burry - Scion Asset Management, LLC - Portfolio Holdings

https://fintel.io/i/scion-asset-management-llc

Michael Burry - Scion Asset Management - 2021 13F Holdings, Performance, and AUM - Insider Monkey

https://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/scion+asset+management/894/

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry showcased books on Warren Buffett, credit derivatives, and Vietnam. The titles relate to his life. | Markets Insider

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-books-warren-buffett-derivatives-vietnam-books-2021-3

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

Three Factors 0:00

MONEY FLOWS 0:27

CRYPTO GROWS 6:58

FOOD WOES 11:59

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 WE HAVE NEVER SEEN THIS MUCH CASH FLOW INTO STOCKS

#2 INVESTORS HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS LEVERAGED IN HISTORY

#3 THE FED MAY BEGIN RISK OFF PROCESS NEXT MONTH

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/rub1.jpg?itok=V_V8zU3z

Brazil Central Bank Vows to Do What’s Needed to Tame Prices - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-12/brazil-central-bank-vows-to-do-what-s-needed-to-tame-inflation?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&sref=6uww027M

A Global Liquidity Crisis Is Underway - The Daily Reckoning

https://dailyreckoning.com/a-global-liquidity-crisis-is-underway/

Crypto Market Retakes $2 Trillion Market Cap Amid Bitcoin Gains

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-market-retakes-2-trillion-071352079.html

Cryptocurrency Prices, Charts And Market Capitalizations | CoinMarketCap

https://coinmarketcap.com/

Teens Cash in on the NFT Art Boom – DNyuz

https://dnyuz.com/2021/08/14/teens-cash-in-on-the-nft-art-boom/

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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/jpm%20flows%20crypto_0.jpg?itok=QSrpdmt-

Biden administration approves largest increase to SNAP food assistance benefits in program’s history - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/15/snap-food-assistance-benefit-boost/

USDA to permanently boost food stamp benefits by 25 percent

https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-9832ab299bd1a5953f305ec1ae2b8ea9

‘Ten years ago this was science fiction’: the rise of weedkilling robots | Environment | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/14/weedkilling-robots-farming-pesticide-use-sustainable

TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:

The Model of QE Success 0:00

Japan Today 0:17

Years Ago 4:40

$GPS INSIGHTS 8:49

Global Parallels 9:12

$GPS INSIGHTS

#1 JAPAN PRINTED AS MUCH MONEY AS POSSIBLE TO PREVENT CRISIS

#2 DECADES LATER, PROBLEMS STILL EXIST

#3 U.S. HEADING DOWN SAME PATH, SO EXPECT SAME RESULTS

Monthly Balance Sheets

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfedecbassets.pdf

UPDATE 1-BOJ to trim JGB buying, seen taking more hands-off approach | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-bond-boj/update-1-boj-to-trim-jgb-buying-seen-taking-more-hands-off-approach-idUSL2N2OB0KN

In first since 2012, Bank of Japan went a month without buying ETFs | The Japan Times

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/06/02/business/boj-no-etf/

What Happens When The Bank Of Japan Owns Everything?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jareddillian/2016/04/27/what-happens-when-the-boj-owns-everything/?sh=3133067c6f84

Bank of Japan: Total Assets for Japan (JPNASSETS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNASSETS

Residential Property Prices for Japan (QJPN628BIS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS#

Japan Stock Market Index (JP225) | 1965-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Quote | Chart

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market

BOJ Becomes Biggest Japan Stock Owner With $434 Billion Hoard - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-06/boj-becomes-biggest-japan-stock-owner-with-434-billion-hoard

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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Household-Net-Worth-Inflation-Adj-Brackets-080821.png

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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Debt-GDP-TotalSystem-Leverage-080821.png

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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Household-Equity-Ownership-080821.png

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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Markets-Disconnected-Economy-080621.png