Whilst we're seeing greater hedging activity across US rates and credit markets for tenors around the Nov US elections – we've noted before that it's too early for spot USD to start pricing in the risk of a contested election. We may see USD vols creep higher but we need to see greater conviction that a contested US election would lead to a firesale across US assets. Worth monitoring... but we're not here yet!

USD/CNY moved 3 big figures lower today as it looks like China is now facilitating a strong yuan. Beyond portfolio inflows driving this rally – there's also a subtle shift in the PBoC's FX policy (as our latest charts show). Beijing may be more willing to accept idiosyncratic CNY strength to avoid Trump tariffs ahead of the US elections. Cost of a strong CNY lower than a US-China trade war right now.

We're joined by Justin McQueen (FX Analyst at DailyFX) to talk about the Aussie dollar – focusing on the themes that are currently supporting the currency (China's fresh demand for iron ore and more fiscal stimulus later this year). However, Justin also notes that AUD faces spillover risks from the US presidential election (3 Nov) and if Trump opts to double down on his China policies in the run-in.

We discuss with Michael Brown from Caxton FX his views on the K-shaped recovery – where some sectors are likely to rebound quicker than others. We also take a deep-dive into the UK economic recovery and how the all-important services sector is performing under the 'new normal'. With Brexit risks also lingering – more may need to be done in terms of UK monetary & fiscal policy.

Anthony Barton (MNI Senior Fixed income and FX Analyst) joins us to provide a snapshot of how Chinese policymakers are dealing with managing the economy in the post-pandemic environment – in particular how officials are trying to strike a balance between providing easier credit conditions whilst also avoiding over-leveraging. He also discusses the next policy steps that we may see amid the economic rebound.

Simon Harvey an FX Analyst at Monex Europe discusses his view of a two-speed recovery in EM markets – with Asian countries benefiting the most from capital inflows. In the G10 FX space, CAD may outperform in the near-term as it plays catch-up to the broad high-beta FX rally that has taken place since June. Finally, Simon talks about the Fed framework review in Sep and what to expect.

With FX markets lacking a clear narrative, it is hard to fight the weak USD momentum. Even though the rally might be misaligned to our view on the relative EZ-US cyclical outlook – we could see EUR/$ test the 1.20 level soon. The fate of the EUR rally lies in the hands of the ECB – how uncomfortable they are with it and what actions they'll take to address it (more QE likely at first).

The July FOMC meeting gave little in the way of fresh policy clues. But we made a note that the minutes (Wed) will probably shed more light on how the Fed will evolve its forward guidance policy by either adopting YCC or a flexible above 2% inflation target. Jackson Hole (27-28 Aug) could be the platform for the Fed to prepare markets for a new policy regime in September.

Weak 30-year US bond auction creates jitters in the market, with Turkey and Greece close to military conflict as Europe’s virus situation deteriorates markedly. Poor Chinese data surprises markets and RBA's Governor shies away from FX intervention to push AUD lower. South Africa could face load-shedding through to Nov – posing an idiosyncratic risk to ZAR.

RBNZ's overtly dovish bias has reignited the theme of G10 central bank policy divergences in 2H20 – with investors potentially switching from broad USD selling to relative value bets. G10 central banks will become more vocal on their policy paths as the post-pandemic dust settles and this will create opportunities in FX markets.