The MOST Important Thing

Is gold the ultimate portfolio insurance — or has its extraordinary rise made it too risky? And could a changing global monetary order reshape how we invest?

In this episode of The MOST Important Thing, Dr Alan O’Sullivan and Ivan Yates examine gold’s role in a diversified portfolio, the central-bank buying driving demand and the question of trust in the US dollar. They also discuss silver, copper, uranium, oil and other real assets, before weighing the opportunities and risks of Bitcoin.

Drawing on conversations with Ronnie Stoeferle, Russell Napier and Justin Huhn, Alan explores what a potential monetary reset could mean for investors — and why portfolio diversification may matter more than ever.

Previous guest interviews referenced in this episode:

Ronnie Stoeferle — Gold, Trust and the Monetary System — https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/ep2-why-gold-is-the-best-hedge-against-a/id1876953002?i=1000751266217

Justin Huhn — Uranium and Nuclear Energy — https://podcastrex.com/shows/the-most-important-thing/uraniums-long-runway-china-scarcity-the-nuclear-investment-opportunity

Russell Napier — Gold and the Monetary Reset — https://open.spotify.com/episode/1Aqq65d972ehdcjQOAtxl1

Topics include: gold allocation and volatility; central-bank reserves; inflation and commodities; nuclear energy; Bitcoin as a store of value; and the future of the global monetary system.

Subscribe for more insights from The MOST Important Thing. Available on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

IMPORTANT - PLEASE READ

For information and educational purposes only. Nothing in this episode constitutes personal investment advice.

Professor Robert J. Gordon, one of the world’s leading economists on productivity and long-run economic growth, joins Alan O’Sullivan to examine why the extraordinary gains of the past two centuries may be becoming harder to repeat.

In Part 1, Gordon explains the difference between economic growth and productivity, traces the three major industrial revolutions, and discusses why the period from 1920 to 1970 delivered such exceptional productivity growth. He also revisits the central thesis of The Rise and Fall of American Growth and explains why productivity growth has slowed since the mid-2000s.

The conversation then turns to the major headwinds facing advanced economies: ageing populations, rising public debt, inequality and the diminishing contribution of education to productivity. Gordon also discusses the contrast between mature economies and faster-growing developing countries, as well as the role of energy, electrification and technology in future growth.

Topics include:

• Economic growth vs productivity

• The three industrial revolutions

• Why 1920–1970 was an exceptional period for productivity

• The post-2005 productivity slowdown

• Demographics and ageing populations

• Government debt and interest rates

• Inequality and living standards

• Education and graduate underemployment

• Growth in China, India and the developing world

• Energy, electrification and the transition away from fossil fuels

Part 2 continues the discussion with artificial intelligence, white-collar employment, education, demographics, retirement, immigration and advice for young people entering the labour market.

Ted talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYHd7rpOTe8

Amazon UK – Robert J. Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth

In Episode 2 of The Long & Short, Ivan Yates and Dr. Alan O'Sullivan examine three of the major forces shaping economies, markets and long-term investment decisions: debt, demographics and sustainability.

The discussion moves from the global sustainability challenge and the renewed debate around nuclear energy to rising government debt and the consequences of increasingly heavy debt burdens. Ivan and Alan also explore what could happen if confidence in sovereign debt is tested and why the financial system ultimately depends on trust.

They then turn to demographics and pensions, including falling worker-to-retiree ratios, longer life expectancy and the pressure these trends place on state pension systems. The episode also looks at private credit and shadow banking, liquidity and underwriting risks, Ireland's deemed disposal rules, and the role of state savings and government bonds in a portfolio.

Topics include:

• Debt, deficits and diminishing economic returns

• US government debt and the Treasury market

• Climate, energy security and nuclear power

• Ageing populations and pension sustainability

• Private credit and shadow banking risks

• Deemed disposal and long-term investing in Ireland

• State savings, government bonds and inflation

Featured clips from previous episodes:

• Justin Huhn – Part 1: Is Uranium the Most Important Investment Story of the Next Decade?

• Justin Huhn – Part 2: Uranium’s Long Runway: China, Scarcity & the Nuclear Investment Opportunity

• Mike Bell, CFA – Part 1: How to Gain an Edge in Markets: History, Cycles & Bubbles

• Mike Bell, CFA – Part 2: Gaining an Edge in Financial Markets

• Dr. Lacy Hunt – The Debt Crisis Nobody Wants to Talk About

• Prof. Brian O'Kelly – Banking Risk, Debt & the Future of Finance

The Long & Short is part of The Most Important Thing, with Ivan Yates and Dr. Alan O'Sullivan, looking beyond the headlines at the forces driving markets, economies and investment portfolios.

Listen / Watch:

Spotify: The MOST Important Thing

YouTube: @TheMOSTImportantThingPod

In this special episode of The Most Important Thing, the roles are reversed as Alan O’Sullivan sits down with Ivan Yates following the release of his new book, The Game of Life: And How to Win It.

Drawing on 50 years of experience across politics, business and broadcasting, Ivan reflects on the lessons that shaped his life – from leaving school early and becoming Ireland’s youngest TD at the time, to building a business, facing bankruptcy, reinventing himself in broadcasting and continuing to take on new challenges.

Alan and Ivan discuss success, failure and self-responsibility; the importance of people skills and relationships; leadership and resilience; recovering from major setbacks; knowing when to reinvent yourself; and how ambition changes as you move through life.

They also look at what the rise of AI means for the next generation – and why Ivan believes that in a world where information is increasingly accessible, relationships, communication and the ability to connect with people matter more than ever.

The Game of Life brings together Ivan’s own hard-earned lessons with insights gathered from around 200 people whose advice and experiences feature in the book across business, politics, sport, public service and media.

 Buy Ivan Yates’ new book, The Game of Life: And How to Win It, using the links below.

Book Links

The Game of Life: And How to Win It by Ivan Yates is published by Gill Books. ISBN: 9781804583456.

• Eason – Hardback

• Books.ie – Hardback

• Kennys Bookshop – Hardback

Mike Bell on History, Cycles, and Building Portfolios for Different Regimes

Mike Bell walks through the framework he uses to understand markets: study financial history, identify the cycle you are in, and match assets to the regime rather than to a simple stock-bond split. He explains why politics, demographics, debt, and central bank policy matter as much as traditional market data. In this interview, Alan speaks with Mike Bell, a macro and investment strategist, about how he built his approach from the 2008 financial crisis onward and why he thinks the biggest mistake investors make is looking at too little history. They also discuss inflation, gold, bonds, financial repression, and how AI may reshape investing and work.

Key Topics

• Mike Bell shares how his interest in markets began with political philosophy, economics, and an early fascination with the relationship between politics and real-world outcomes.
• He describes starting in markets in April 2008 and learning his craft during the financial crisis, when markets were falling hard and investors needed a framework for when to buy risk again.
• We discuss the indicators he used after the crisis, including valuations, initial jobless claims, homebuilding data, new home sales, and other leading indicators that often turned before markets did.
• Mike explains why he believes financial history is essential, not optional, and why he looks back not just 10 years but 100 years or more when possible.
• He argues that cycles are driven by both fundamentals and sentiment, but that sentiment usually affects timing more than the root cause of bubbles and crashes.
• In the episode, he outlines his “zooming out” approach, which means studying long-term history, politics, wars, debt cycles, and structural changes such as demographics and productivity.
• He also outlines “zooming in” by dissecting data more deeply than the headline number, using non-farm payrolls and inflation components as examples.
• Mike discusses why correlations change in stress periods, why 2022 mattered so much for portfolios, and why a plain 60-40 portfolio may not be enough in every regime.
• He explains what tends to work in different environments, including gold, cash, inflation-linked bonds, commodities, and certain government bonds, depending on inflation, growth, and debt conditions.
• We cover the debt problem in developed economies, especially the US and Europe, and why he expects financial repression to remain a major theme.
• Mike closes by explaining how AI can help young investors learn faster, but also why technology that benefits only a small group may trigger political backlash.

Chapters - Part 2 of my interview with Mike Bell, CFA

 1 - The short-term business cycle and how it turns
 2 - Long-term debt cycles across government, household, and corporate balance sheets
 3 - Why momentum, central banks, and fiscal policy drive turning points
 4 - Inflation, stock-bond correlations, and why the 1970s matter
 5 - What to own when stocks and bonds both struggle
 6 - A better benchmark for diversification
 7 - What hedges equity risk in stressed environments
 8 - Debt, aging populations, and the future of financial repression
 9 - How young investors should use AI without overestimating it
 10 - Why innovation has to benefit the majority to stay politically sustainable
 11 - How to follow Mike Bell’s work

Key Frameworks

• Zooming out: Study long-run history, politics, and structural cycles.
• Zooming in: Break down headline data into components and leading signals.
• Short-term business cycle: Track interest rates, inflation, unemployment, wage growth, and credit.
• Long-term debt cycle: Examine public, household, corporate, and financial-sector leverage over decades.
• Regime-based investing: Match assets to the inflation and growth environment rather than assuming one allocation works everywhere.

Action Items

• Study market history beyond the last decade, especially past bubbles, recessions, and inflation regimes.
• Break down macro data into components instead of relying only on headline releases.
• Build portfolios around different regimes, not just around stock and bond exposure.
• Consider gold, inflation-linked bonds, cash, and commodities as part of broader diversification.
• Use AI as a research accelerator, not as a replacement for judgment.

Want to follow Mike and keep the learning going?

Check out Mike's LinkedIn page. He shares a phenomenal amount of useful learning material every week (and most days)!

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-bell-cfa/

Episode Description

What does it actually take to gain an edge in financial markets?
 
In Part 1 of our conversation with Mike Bell, CFA, Mike joins Alan to explain the investment framework he has developed over more than two decades in markets — beginning with a front-row seat to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
 
Mike explains why investors need to both "zoom out" and "zoom in": zooming out across more than a century of financial history, politics, economic cycles and market crises, while zooming in on the underlying economic data that headline numbers can often obscure.
 
They discuss the lessons of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the role of fear and greed in financial bubbles, why economic fundamentals matter more than sentiment alone, and how historical data can help investors identify turning points.
 
The conversation also explores the interaction between interest rates, inflation, unemployment, credit and fiscal policy, the difference between short-term business cycles and long-term debt cycles, and why demographics and productivity could make the decades ahead very different from the past.
 
Topics include:

·   Mike Bell’s experience investing through the 2008 Financial Crisis

·   How financial history can improve investment decisions

·   Why bubbles form — and whether markets are in one today

·   Finding an investment edge by "zooming in" and "zooming out"

·   Using leading economic indicators to identify turning points

·   Interest rates, inflation, unemployment and the business cycle

·   Short-term and long-term debt cycles

·   Monetary policy vs fiscal policy

·   Geopolitics, energy shocks and the Ukraine war

·   Why demographics and productivity matter for long-term growth

·   How economic regimes influence stocks, bonds and gold

The Most Important Thing brings together leading investors, economists and thinkers to discuss the frameworks and ideas that matter most when making investment decisions.
 

Description 

The global order is changing — but what does that actually mean for investors? 

In Episode 1 of The Long & Short, Ivan Yates and Alan O’Sullivan examine the emergence of a more multipolar world, the decline of the post-war global order, and the growing influence of geopolitics on markets and investment decisions. 

From the rise of China and Russia to Trump, tariffs, deglobalisation and European security, Ivan and Alan explore the major forces reshaping the global economy — and ask whether investors should react to geopolitical risk or simply stay invested and look through the noise. 

They discuss: 

• The shift from a US-led unipolar world to multipolarity
 • China, Russia and competing spheres of influence
 • The risk of wider global conflict
 • Trump, Iran and the changing role of the United States
 • Deglobalisation, reshoring and the implications for inflation
 • Defence, aerospace and energy-security investment opportunities
 • China’s demographic challenge
 • Ireland’s exposure to changes in global trade and European security
 • How investors should approach geopolitical risk 

Watch our full interview with Louis-Vincent Gave:
https://youtu.be/VZoV6Nd_wNc?si=9rN5rDZcHTGv-bgK 

Watch our full interview with Matt Gertken:
https://youtu.be/Dp5eLCgyXzA?si=v3g3G8wcZw5ZlIrn 

The Long & Short brings together politics, economics and markets, with Ivan Yates and Dr Alan O’Sullivan examining the major issues shaping the investment landscape. 

Subscribe to The Most Important Thing for more interviews, market analysis and investment insights. 

In Part 2 of our conversation, Anne-Marie Curtin discusses how family, career pivots, and mentorship shaped her path, plus the practical ways she built confidence as a speaker and writer.

Key topics

• A major theme is communication: she describes executive coaching, Toastmasters, writing discipline, and how she learned to be concise, clearer, and more confident in the room.
• She talks about the support she received as a working mother in London, including mentoring, flexible boundaries, and senior women setting an example.
• Anne-Marie also shares a personal project, co-writing her mother’s memoir about growing up in Kilkenny in the 1950s.
• Special advice for young career professionals in this world of AI
• Working in a high-pressure role while raising young children
• Senior women, boundaries, and a model of sustainable success
• Being Irish in London and seeing the city through a family story
• Why communication is hard and why it matters so much
• Toastmasters, coaching, and learning to speak with confidence
• What makes a great presenter
• Advice for young people who want to improve communication
• Paper communication and physical communication
• Writing a memoir with her mother about 1950s Kilkenny
• Advice to young people entering finance today
• Books, Masterclass, and the habit of learning every day
• Mentors, executive coaching, and leadership development
• The most important lesson from her career and personal life

Anne-Marie referred to two specific books in the interview: 

1. 168 Hours: You Have More Time Than You Think — Laura Vanderkam
   This is the time-management book Anne-Marie describes as having “moved the dial” for her when she was a young mother working at the Bank of England. It was originally published in 2010.
   Laura Vanderkam – 168 Hours (official book page)
   Google Books – 168 Hours
2. Becoming — Michelle Obama
   Anne-Marie says she “absolutely adored” this memoir, particularly Michelle Obama's account of navigating her career alongside motherhood and family life. The memoir was originally published in 2018.
   Becoming – Official Michelle Obama book site
   Penguin UK – Becoming (includes purchase options)

Here is the official MasterClass website Anne-Marie is referring to: 

MasterClass — Official Website 

It includes courses across communication, leadership, writing, business, AI, science and technology, among others. 

AnneMarie Curtin has had a fascinating career spanning financial regulation, crisis management, consulting and global banking. 

She spent part of her career on the regulatory side, leading supervisory teams at both the Central Bank of Ireland and the Bank of England, during the enormous regulatory changes that followed the Global Financial Crisis. Her experience subsequently took her into consulting with EY, before she moved into Bank of America as the bank expanded its European operations following Brexit. AnneMarie has more than 20 years' experience across finance, risk management and prudential regulation, including her former role as Head of Recovery & Resolution for the European subsidiary of a global US bank. 

What I particularly liked about AnneMarie’s story was that her reputation and professional network played an important role in opening those doors. It is a good example of how expertise, relationships and the ability to operate in complex environments can create career opportunities you may never have planned for. 

But the move into American banking brought another lesson. 

AnneMarie found herself in a fast-paced, high-performing US banking culture, and received an important piece of feedback: technical knowledge and hard work were not enough on their own. If she wanted to progress, she needed to learn how to hold a room, project her voice and communicate with enough confidence to influence the people making decisions. 

Rather than retreat from that feedback, she acted on it — investing in executive coaching and Toastmasters and deliberately developing the communication skills to complement her technical expertise. 

And I think that provides one of the central themes for our conversation: career progression isn't simply about becoming better at your job. It's also about developing the confidence, communication skills and relationships that allow your expertise to have an impact. 

AnneMarie is now a Director in Grant Thornton Ireland's Banking Risk Advisory practice, which she joined in February 2023. 

Prof. Brian O'Kelly on banking risk, debt, and the future of finance

Alan interviews Brian O'Kelly, Emeritus Professor of Finance at Dublin City University and former chair of the SCA advisory committee at the National Treasury Management Agency, about how his career moved from engineering into finance, then into academia and risk management. The conversation focuses on banking regulation, liquidity, debt sustainability, and how AI and data are changing both markets and education. We discuss how Brian’s career was shaped by applied maths, commodity risk at ESB, and the formative MSc in Investment Treasury Banking at DCU. He also shares sharp views on Basel regulation, the post-2008 banking system, and why real interest rates, liquidity, and demographics matter more than most headlines suggest.

Key topics

• Brian shares how he “fell into” finance through engineering and applied maths, then moved from ESB into commodity risk management.
• In the episode: how volatile oil prices in the 1980s pushed him toward risk management and the MSc in Investment Treasury Banking.
• Brian explains how the DCU program became his entry point into lecturing, academic life, and later consulting work with AIB.
• We discuss the evolution from Basel I to Basel II and Basel III, and why Basel II’s reliance on historical data helped set up problems before the 2008 crisis.
• Brian breaks down the difference between capital and liquidity regulation, arguing that liquidity rules were the real game-changer after 2008.
• He argues that Irish banking is now far stronger on liquidity and funding than before, but that the traditional banking business model is still under pressure.
• Brian shares why Silicon Valley Bank was vulnerable, especially because many depositors were above the FDIC-style guarantee threshold.
• We discuss private credit and non-bank lenders, with Brian saying the danger only rises if banks become too exposed to them.
• Brian gives a blunt view on sovereign debt, especially the US path of persistent deficits and rising interest costs.
• He explains why he sees real interest rates as one of the most useful single data points for judging whether markets are becoming overheated.
• The conversation also covers AI, demographics, and why he thinks technology may create efficiencies but cannot fully offset a shrinking working-age population.
• Brian reflects on teaching in China, the changing nature of student learning in the age of AI, and why educators now need to ask better questions rather than reward memorization.
• He closes with advice for graduates: follow what you love, because the industry may shrink, but genuine interest and competence still rise to the top.

Key frameworks

• Basel I to Basel III
  • A progression from blunt risk weights to internal models, then to liquidity-focused rules after 2008.
• Capital versus liquidity
  • Capital matters when assets fail.
  • Liquidity matters when funding disappears.
• Real interest rates as a signal
  • Brian treats real yields as a simple but powerful gauge of whether markets are in “sober territory.”
• Data and regime change
  • Historical models only work if the underlying economic regime remains similar enough to the past.