The NAVigator

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors and the Chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, looks at the recent issues in business-development companies, which got hammered in March as the market punished software investments, including lenders who made loans to software firms. While BDCs rebounded in April, they remain significantly down, and Scott discusses how the companies with the biggest troubles have higher yields and bigger discounts, but the top performers are delivering a better return on equity and are the better, safer bet while the industry gets through the current rough patch.

Matt Freund, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Calamos Investments, says that productivity, GDP growth and earnings are "what matters," and that the headline risks that are driving consumer sentiment are "distractions" from a market backdrop that is solid. He says inflation remains the big risk, but notes that the investor sentiment is creating opportunities, particularly in closed-end funds, and especially in senior loans and high-yield bonds, where discounts have widened this year.

Dr. Mark Mobius, widely considered the father of emerging markets investor and a man who helped put the world into everyone's grasp during his long career running funds at Templeton, passed away in mid-April. John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, recounts Mobius' legacy and lasting lessons by digging into interviews conducted by his father, George Cole Scott, Founder of the Closed-End Fund Letter, with Mobius over the decades. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, makes sure to include why Mobius felt that the closed-end fund structure was particularly useful for emerging markets investors following his value-oriented strategy.

David Gutierrez, Vice President at Liberty Street Advisors and part of the team running the Private Shares Fund, says that private markets are similar enough to public markets that artificial intelligence is now one of the big sweet spots in both. However, he says the best opportunities involve infrastructure more than AI itself. Gutierrez notes that the Private Shares Fund—an actively managed, continuously offered closed-end interval fund investing in late-stage venture capital and private company opportunities—is focusing heavily on AI infrastructure right now. For instance, he explains how the shift from copper-based to optical-based networking in servers has become an investable trend, and how this trend depends not on AI performance but rather on the demand for more AI technology support. Gutierrez also discusses shifting trends in how long private companies are waiting before going public, and how geopolitics could be impacting private firms.

Rob Shaker, Portfolio Manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that while the headlines may have investors on edge, the fear-based selling that gripped the market around the start of war in Iran created a "generic widening" of discounts for closed-end funds. Shaker, who is a "discount-capture investor," says the current widening and recovery was caused mostly by "the irrational effects of excessive selling pressures overall," which means that the bad news is not creating fundamental problems for industries so much as temporary issues affecting share values. He says we could see more generic widening and narrowing until the market gets clarity on the headlines.

With the market kicking business-development companies in the teeth, John Cole Scott , President of CEF Advisors, digs into his firm's data looking at "artificial-intelligence risk scoring" to find BDCs that have been hurt by headlines without holding tainted portfolios. BDCs relied heavily on software companies, due to the tech sector's blend of strong fundamentals, innovation and ability to resist economic fluctuations, but have suffered as investors fear for the future of software in the face of challenges from artificial-intelligence companies. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, went looking for BDC's with "low AI risk, clean credit and sensible leverage and costs," and came away from the analysis convinced that investors should lean into the troubles. Specifically, he mentions funds from Nuveen and Kayne Anderson as worth watching now.

Matt Weyandt, a client Portfolio Manager on the listed real assets team at Nuveen, discusses how buying "location-specific hard assets" in essential industries that deliver to a "Halo theme" — heavy asset, low obsolescence — creates a buffer against a market that is being driven by headlines and geopolitical risks. Weyandt says that real estate, infrastructure, utilities, midstream energy companies, communications and commodities are not immune to the headlines, but they are built to deliver regardless of market conditions, and he discusses Nuveen's wide range of options for accessing those assets through closed-end funds.

Kim Flynn, president at XA Investments, a firm that specializes in alternative investments, says recent private-credit bad news events have widened discounts and raised concerns over business-development companies and interval funds, but have likely created a buy-the-dip moment in the industry. She discusses how fund sponsors and advisers must do a better job educating investors on how these products get through worrisome times, but says she does not think the headlines or their attendant challenges on direct lenders will discourage yield-hungry private-credit investors in the long run.

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, says that closed-end funds are being buffeted in two directions due to current headlines, with war in Iran impacting net asset values and anchored interest rates impacting levered closed-end funds and discounts shifting to reflect both situations. Scott, who also serves as the Chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, says sectors that have benefitted from the chaos have been MPL and energy funds, while business-development companies and CLO equity funds have suffered. Scott also put his firm's "Trifecta analysis" to work, with four funds to consider now: ticker symbols AFB, ARDC, CSQ and MEGI.

Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Aberdeen Investments, says that the continuing war in Iran has put pressure on oil prices, but he expects them to stabilize short-term while the market determines what happens next. If the outlook becomes one where the Straits of Hormuz are closed off to shipments for a longer stretch of time, he says "If things get really bad, you could be talking $175 for a barrel of oil." Gilhooly discusses the investment adage that the first shots of war signal a time to buy, and says that investors likely will see solid opportunities, but that they might want to wait a little longer for more clarity if they didn't jump in with the very first shots. He also discusses how tensions should be good for income-producing investments like closed-end funds.