The NAVigator

With Anthropic preparing to launch an initial public offering that could value the company at over $2 trillion, John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, looks at buying pre-IPO stakes in closed-end funds, interval funds and ETFs that invest in private markets, and says that getting exposure to Anthropic and other popular IPOs isn't the hard part, paying for the right wrapper is. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, evaluates several funds of different structures to show what investors would actually be buying, how much they are paying per dollar of private exposure and why they have to come up with an exit strategy before they get in. He also discusses which fund and structure he would use for clients, and why some investors with different goals might make another choice.

Matt Kence, Portfolio Manager at Aberdeen Investments, discusses the current state of the high-yield market and how it is responding to rising interest rates, noting that fundamentals remain surprisingly robust, with moderate levels of leverage and strong interest coverage. Kence, who manages the Aberdeen Credit Income Strategies fund (ticker ACP) says that defaults in the high-yield space have been well below long-term averages, but he does note that the selection of individual credits is critical right now, with the market seeing strong new issuance. Kence discusses the impact that artificial intelligence is making on the market — while noting that A.I. investments are a much bigger part of the private-credit market than the high-yield bond space — noting that while A.I.-adjacent industries like power generation feel stable, the spreads there are narrower than with less-proven companies developing A.I. products directly, making the bigger opportunity with the tech companies.

Young Choi, Portfolio Manager for the XAI Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust, says there is more value and broad movement in the secondary markets for equity collateralized loan obligations, whereas opportunities in debt CLOs have been more specific and sporadic. Choi, the global head of trading at King Street and a portfolio manager for Rockford Tower, which took over as advisor for the XAI fund, discusses how the CLO market has been changed by the emergence of CLO ETFs, noting that they debuted in 2021 and needed nearly a year to achieve $1 billion in assets, but now are seeing roughly $2 billion in in-flows every month, adding a "significant new and growing buyer" into the marketplace and compressing spreads. Choi also discusses differences in the private credit and CLO markets, noting that any blow-up or problem in the private space could have spillover effects that create buying opportunities in CLOs.

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, answers listener questions today, including one from an investor with two closed-end funds that have been stuck with large discounts seemingly the entire time he has owned them. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses how discounts change a fund's risk profile, even if they never get narrowed, and how investors should value and perceive those benefits. He also answers questions on achieving balance in a portfolio of closed-end funds, the drawbacks and benefits of using funds that invest in closed-end funds and more.

Business-development companies saw their share prices get hammered early this year as the market worried about an overexposure to parts of the software industry that could be negatively impacted by artificial intelligence. John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, looked at BDC data before and since those problems and says it appears that fears of A.I. risk were exaggerated since "We're still not seeing software blowing up BDCs." Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, thinks it may take another two quarters of data to confirm that trend, but he says that BDCs have not seen a dramatic rise in non-accruals or "exacerbated losses ... in a material way," with research showing the a lot of the most severe issues were isolated in "the bottom cohort" of BDCs, the outliers with the most exposure that made headlines amid the software downturn early this year.

Rob Thummel, Senior Portfolio Manager at Tortoise Capital, says that for all of the power needs created by artificial intelligence, producers still need their power costs to be reasonable, and he expects that natural gas will lead the way going forward. Thummel, who runs Tortoise Energy Infrastructure fund, says current conditions for energy infrastructure remain the most favorable he has seen in 30-plus years as a portfolio manager, largely because energy is "the foundation of the A.I. five-layer cake" famously described by Nvidia president Jensen Huang. Thummel says that while investors have been light on energy allocations historically, this would be a bad time to be underweight energy, because positive conditions are setting up tailwinds that could last for years.

Treasury rates hit their highest level in nearly 20 years this week; in response, the Treasury announced it was doubling its long-end buyback capacity. John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, discusses what it all means for fixed-income markets and how it is impacting closed-end funds and their investors. The two actions at the center of the action call for a barbell approach, says Scott, who serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance; for the time being, however, it, noting that at least for the time being it is more about portfolio tilts and mild changes than an overhaul or a big buying opportunity.

When closed-end funds catch mentions in the mainstream media, the recommendations often focus on yield without digging deeper. In this episode of The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, looks at some recent closed-end fund recommendations from articles on Forbes and Seeking Alpha, and breaks down how those funds do through the "trifecta analysis" his firm uses to select funds, pointing out the shortcomings of using a rigid criteria or focusing on partial information to make decisions. Scott, who also is the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, offers suggestions for what he would use in portfolios in place of the media recommendations.

Discount-capture investor Rob Shaker, Portfolio Manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that while closed-end fund discounts have widened through a strong season of earnings and a market returning to flirt with new highs, much of that action has been "good widenings," where a fund's net asset value goes up more than the price of the closed-end fund itself. With the market "snapping around" with heightened volatility, Shaker says that the indexes have been pulling up faster than closed-end funds can move, creating attractive buying opportunities. While liking that potential for gains, Shaker says that closed-end funds generally "have been pretty laid back," without much fear but also without much optimism, even as the market has resumed its climb higher.

Scott Caraher, Head of Senior Loans at Nuveen, says that the higher-for-longer interest rate environment has created "one of the most interesting and dynamic times" he has seen for senior loans in his 25-year career. Caraher, who manages Nuveen Floating Rate Income in both its closed-end and open-end forms, says that because senior loans don't face interest-rate risk, they are a powerful play in a market where Federal Reserve policy on rate direction is uncertain, noting that it's possible to create strong portfolios yielding about 7 percent, which he called "incredibly attractive ... on both an absolute and relative basis."