John Cole Scott — president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — revisits the forecasts he made for the closed-end fund business a year ago and to grade himself as a soothsayer. Having made his 2025 calls for closed-end funds a week ago, he puts some weight behind his prognostications by showing that, for the second year in a row, the data that's now in the books proved most of his predictions to be correct.

John Cole Scott, President of Closed-End Fund Advisors, doesn't have a crystal ball, but he does have a mountain of data, and he digs through it to look at the stories he anticipates to be central to the closed-end fund landscape in the new year. Beyond looking at the big stories, John identifies five investments poised for breakout performances in the next 12 months.

Ken Burdon, a partner in the registered funds practice at Simpson Thacher and Bartlett, discusses how the return of President Donald Trump might benefit closed-end funds. One key development he will be looking for is for the approval of new investment vehicles that give retail investors more access to private credit markets and other alternative assets that have been until now the domain of affluent investors and institutions. He notes that the first Trump Administration was generally in favor of making more investment opportunities available, and he thinks that will pick up in the new term, especially with the selection of Paul Atkins as a potential new SEC chairman. Burdon also talks about how activist investors might be impacted by the regime change.

Ravi Chintapalli, Client Portfolio Manager on the Global Fixed Income team at Nuveen, says that the bond market has seen a structural change in the market for below-investment grade or junk bonds. Chintapalli says investors think of junk bonds as it was in times like 2007, when nearly one-third of the paper was teetering on the edge of default; today, however, only 10 percent of the below-investment grade paper carries those same low ratings, and default risk is much lower than in the past.  As a result, investors can expect high-yield bonds to live up to their promise, with 7 percent income levels moving forward, and some extra risk cushion in the many cases where the bonds are selling below par.

Michael Lowenberg of White Mountain Capital — Portfolio Manager for the Modern Capital Tactical Income fund (ticker MCTOX) discusses the factors he considers when picking closed-end funds for the portfolio. Lowenberg — whose fund buys both stocks and closed-end funds — likes the funds for their downside protection, and explains that he values the assets for the portfolio more than he values any discount, noting that he will actually buy funds trading at a premium if conditions are right. He particularly likes high-yield funds right now, dislikes tech-heavy issues and is a bit heavy in cash with discounts having narrowed in recent months.

Kevin Mahn, President and Chief Investment Officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management — which runs the Smart Trust Unit Investment Trusts — says that he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates over the next two years, which will drive investors to turn for income alternatives "since they can't find the 5 percent in the short-term CDs any more." That will drive investors toward business development companies and leveraged municipal closed-end funds, the latter benefitting from a reduced cost of leverage in a declining rate environment, as rates drive down. Mahn talks about using unit investment trusts — and specifically covers his firms UITs that invest in BDCs and closed-end funds — in current conditions, and talks about how the UIT structure can be a benefit for investors now.

The day after Thanksgiving is all about shopping at the biggest possible discounts, and John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors puts a closed-end fund spin on it for the third straight year, culling through funds the way bargain shoppers look for the best deals. Scott — Chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — identifies three different closed-end funds and one business development company that, based on his firm's data, are particularly good bargains entering the holiday and tax-loss selling seasons.

The NAVigator this week offers a taste of the action from the Active Investment Company Alliance's 2024 Fall Roundtable, which was held on November 13 in New York City. Individual investor Jim Cohen discusses how consumers in closed-end funds are caught between activist "whales" and fund sponsors, wanting to hold funds to account to narrow discounts and improve management, but sometimes coming away with lesser results. Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer at Merk Investments — manager of ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited — discusses why gold has worked better as a geopolitical hedge but has been less successful as an inflation hedge. He adds that precious metals perform better in higher-rate environments, and he doesn't think the current round of rate cuts will go so far as to pose a problem for gold in the medium term.

Josh Duitz, Portfolio Manager for the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Fund, took a break from the program at the Active Investment Company's Fall Roundtable in New York this week to discuss the state of infrastructure investing now that the presidential election has been decided and the policies of the second Trump Administration are becoming more clear. Duitz says that deregulation and lower corporate taxes will help certain freight, for example, balancing out initial concerns about how tariffs might impact demand. He also notes digs into renewable energy — which critics have said they expect the Trump Administration to hurt — noting that he expects demand to keep it rolling, with some of that demand also coming from the nation's increasing reliance on artificial intelligence.

Jared Hagen, Vice President at XA Investments, discusses this year's unprecedented growth in interval and tender-offer funds and how the number of funds in registration guarantees the trend will continue through 2025. Hagen talks about why the investment community has taken a shine to interval funds and covers how the expansion into the space has included some unique partnerships, with firms like KKR and Capital Group pairing up to bring new products to market.