The NAVigator

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, provides takeaways from the second quarter for closed-end funds and business-development companies, noting that the trend was for investors to make most of their money on net asset values rather than narrowing discounts, which creates potential for a strong second half of 2026 if there is an uptick in investor sentiment. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, brought forward data from his firm's quarterly outlook presentation this week, noting that it shows that while headline risks have hurt BDC prices, underlying strength should make for a strong rebound later in the year, particularly as the actions of the Federal Reserve become more clear.

Ray DiBernardo, Portfolio Manager for the XAI Madison Equity Premium Income fund, says he's concerned about the market's valuation levels — noting that it "has been expensive for quite some time" — and while he is not expecting "dark clouds and a horrible environment," there's more downside risk, which could lead to market compression that puts covered-call strategies back into the spotlight as a defensive play. DiBernardo, an analyst at Madison Investments, says the proliferation of options strategies should make investors more diligent about exploring strategies, and he discusses single-stock options versus index options and the risk-reward picture with each. DiBernardo notes that covered-call strategies aren't right for people "who believe the market will keep going straight up from here," but he notes that for nervous investors, the options strategy acts like portfolio insurance and the discount on a closed-end fund can help to make up for the upside potential that the strategy trades for that protection.

Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer at Merk Investments, discusses Saba Capital's activist campaign that got him ousted as portfolio manager and president of ASA Gold and Precious Metals Ltd., a closed-end fund that was up nearly 200% last year but that still was branded with the label of being a "poor performer." Merk, who took over the closed end fund in 2016 and helped to nearly quadruple its assets in the last decade, says new management has no experience running a gold fund, and is only interested in narrowing the discount and generating fees for itself. He filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and made other efforts to save the fund, but says any form of salvation is unlikely at this point. He also discusses prospects for the gold market, which has cooled significantly this year.

Kevin Dreyer, Co-Chief Investment Officer for value at Gabelli Asset Management, says that there are plenty of values left in a market that has returned to record levels, particularly when valuing stocks based on "what an informed industrialist or buyer would pay to buy the whole business." Dreyer, part of the team running Gabelli Equity Trust and some of the firm's other closed-end funds, says that finding businesses that are "A.I. resilient" and able to withstand and/or benefit from the development of artificial intelligence is important now, and he noted that sports teams are a big draw in that regard because " You can't have an algorithm or chatbot replicate the New York Knicks … but you and I can go out and buy MSGS, which owns the Knicks."

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, attended the Private Credit Summit hosted this week in New York City by Dechert LLP, and came away with a sense that private-credit markets have not yet gotten to the overheated levels that could turn investor fears of a blow-up into a financial reality. Scott, also the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses "stress tests" that Fitch Ratings did on some large perpetual business development companies to see how they would perform if market conditions changed dramatically, and found that the BDCs did not break under severe conditions. He also discusses how insurance companies putting money into the private credit and BDC industries is changing underwriting standards, adding a measure of safety that he says all private credit investors are likely to benefit from. Plus, he discusses his sense of where the market is in its current cycle, based on what he heard from institutional investors who were in attendance.

Ken Burdon, Partner in the registered fund practice at Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, discusses the Supreme Court's recent ruling against activist investor Saba Capital, a decision that could have a chilling effect on shareholder activism in the future. Burdon says the decision removes a key path based on the Investment Company Act of 1940 that activists took in pursuing cases over fund fees and structure. It doesn't stop the activists from pursuing cases, but makes it harder to do so, forcing them into state courts. Critics of activism have long held that professional arbitrageurs used federal courts to pressure closed-end funds into transactions that benefit activists' short term profit agenda at the expense of the long-term returns and investment objectives that the majority of investors pursued when buying into a specific closed-end fund.

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, says that index discounts are wide when compared to their three-year history, which makes it important for investors to find names where wide discounts are supported by improving fundamentals. Scott, who also is chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, says that both the national muni CEF index and the taxable bond CEF index have seen wider discounts that have "flipped relative values" especially given current economic conditions. Using his firm's "trifecta analysis," Scott examines four funds that he sees as the right kind of opportunities now.

Steve Baffico, Executive Vice President and head of listed products at Bluerock, which runs the Bluerock Private Real Estate fund, expects the real estate market to benefit as money moves from private credit , business-development companies and direct-lending strategies in pursuit of something with "hard assets and low obsolescence." That HALO trade should drive growth moving forward; Baffico discusses what the fund is focused on as it continues its transition from an interval fund to being a closed-end fund. That journey has included four hikes in distributions over the last four months, and Baffico says he explains what the firm is doing to quickly reach its target distribution rate of 8 to 8.5 percent.

Gordon Hamilton, Senior Managing Director for Kayne Anderson, Portfolio Manager for the Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure fund, says that there will be a big call on U.S. energy infrastructure companies to meet global demand for propane, butane, crude oil and natural gas as the world gets through the current energy crisis created by war in Iran. Coupled with an energy "supercycle" driven by artificial-intelligence needs, it is creating a positive long-term demand picture where infrastructure should be able to have persistent performance even if current events or A.I. expectations add concerns to the market.

Bryce Doty, Senior Portfolio Manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that "the worst is over as far as yields going up," noting that the next shift could be down, but he calls the conditions "tricky" and emphasizes that investors "need to be in the right part of the curve." Doty's case hinges on oil prices; if oil stays below $110, it's viewed as inflationary, but above that level "we have a problem, and so does the rest of the world." At that point, central banks will have to cut rates to "save economies from disaster." Doty, whose team manages $2.7 billion in closed-end fund-of-funds for separate accounts, likes two-year TIPS, municipal bonds and high-yield corporate bonds. He also discusses the IPO market, closed-end rights offerings and the quality of private credit investments.