The New Diplomatist

Greg Lawson is a realist thinker, a history buff, and a geopolitical analyst. He joins the podcast to discuss the legacy and meaning of former Secretary of State, the late Dr. Henry Kissinger, as well as the problem of Russia, and the urgency of China.

There has never been a more urgent time for prioritization in American foreign policy; Greg lays out a clear vision on what he sees as the realist way forward.

Greg R. Lawson is a Contributing Analyst at WikiStrat and a Research Fellow at the Buckeye Institute. His opinions have been widely circulated in the foreign policy community amongst thought leaders in the field; his 2014 article "Avoiding America's Ultimate Geopolitical Nightmare" published in The National Interest was an insightful and landmark text on the burgeoning Sino-Russian axis. He is a graduate of Ohio State University.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. He has been published in RealClearDefense, and Pacific Forum International's "Issues & Insights", among other publications.

Guest opinions are their own.

All music licensed via UppBeat.

In this episode Garrison speaks with Rory Truex of Princeton about China's domestic politics, the political nature of Xi Jinping, the domestic perceptions of the CCP, the threat of a Taiwan invasion, and the appropriate response from U.S. policy makers in this new Great Power era.

Rory Truex is an Assistant Professor in Princeton's Department of Politics and Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs. His research focuses on Chinese politics and theories of authoritarian rule. His book Making Autocracy Work: Representation and Responsiveness in Modern China investigates the nature of representation in authoritarian systems, specifically the politics surrounding China's National People's Congress (NPC). He argues that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is engineering a system of “representation within bounds” in the NPC, fostering information revelation but silencing political activism. Original data on deputy backgrounds and behaviors is used to explore the nature of representation, policymaking, and incentives in this constrained system. He is currently working on a new set of projects on repression, human rights, and dissent in contemporary China. His research has been published in the American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Comparative Political Studies, China Quarterly, among other journals.

You can watch Rory Truex's "Talks at Google" lecture from 2018: here.

More information on his publications and research can be found: here.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations, as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. He has had the privilege of interviewing some of the leading policymakers, thinkers, and experts of our time, including Robert B. Zoellick, Elbridge Colby, Richard Fontaine, Andrew Roberts, Ivan Briscoe, Vishnu Prakash, Rajiv Bhatia, Aparne Pande, Mohammed Soliman, Rory Truex and others.

Guest opinions are their own.

Originally recorded March 15th, 2023.

On this episode Garrison interviews David Santoro, President of the Pacific Forum and an expert on strategic deterrence, stability, arms control and more. The two have an in-depth discussion regarding the Pacific Forum’s landmark 2022 publication “US-China Mutual Vulnerability: Perspectives on the Debate”. Santoro embarks on a wide-ranging discussion on the varying perspectives between Washington and Beijing on mutual vulnerability, factors influencing the discussions (and lack thereof), and the need for strategic dialogue across the Pacific and beyond (including with fellow nuclear power Russia). The two also discuss the issue of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran and dawn of a multipolar nuclear world of crisis management/diplomacy.

The entire Pacific Forum report is available here.

David Santoro is President of the Pacific Forum. He specializes in strategic deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation. Santoro’s current interests focus on great-power dynamics and US alliances, particularly the role of China in an era of nuclear multipolarity. His new volume U.S.-China Nuclear Relations – The Impact of Strategic Triangles was published by Lynne Rienner in May 2021. Santoro also leads several of the Forum’s track-1.5 and track-2 strategic dialogues. Before joining the Pacific Forum, Santoro worked on nuclear policy issues in France, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the spring of 2010, he was also a Visiting Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and, in 2010-2011, he was a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Santoro is co-editor, with Tanya Ogilvie-White, of Slaying the Nuclear Dragon (University of Georgia Press, 2012) and author of Treating Weapons Proliferation (Palgrave, 2010). His essays have been published in several foreign policy monograph series and journals, including The Nonproliferation Review, Proliferation Papers, Survival, and The Washington Quarterly, and his op-eds have appeared in The Bangkok Post, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, The Japan Times, PacNet, The Sydney Morning Herald, and the Wall Street Journal, among others.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations, as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. He has had the privilege of interviewing some of the leading policymakers and experts of our time, including Robert B. Zoellick, Elbridge Colby, Richard Fontaine, Andrew Roberts, Ivan Briscoe, Vishnu Prakash, Rajiv Bhatia, Aparne Pande, Mohammed Soliman and others.

Guest opinions are their own.

Originally recorded Aug. 25th, 2022.

In this episode, Garrison is joined by Ali Wyne of the Eurasia Group, to discuss his landmark new book America's Great Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy To Meet The Challenges Of Strategic Competition.  The two discuss Wyne's background in the field, how he came to be interested with, at the forefront of, foreign policy discussions.  He discusses the meaning of great power opportunity, the benefits and drawbacks of historical analogies in foreign policymaking, and the role of human agency in history.  They also talk about the need for democratic revitalization at home, and renewing America's unique strengths abroad (and what those strengths are, in light of Russia and China). They close by discussing key strategies for escaping the reactionary trap of great powers, and implementing the principles outlined in his book for great power relations, particularly "Pursu[ing] cooperative possibilities that can temper the destabilizing effects of great-power competition."

Ali Wyne is a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro-Geopolitics practice, focusing on US-China relations and great-power competition. He has served as a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a research assistant at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and a policy analyst at the RAND Corporation. Ali has also been a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a nonresident fellow at the Modern War Institute. He received dual bachelor's degrees in management science and political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and earned his master in public policy from the Harvard Kennedy School.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.  He h as had the privilege of interviewing some of the leading policymakers and experts of our time, including Robert B. Zoellick, Elbridge Colby, Richard Fontaine, Andrew Roberts, Ivan Briscoe, Vishnu Prakash, Rajiv Bhatia, Aparne Pande, and many others.

Guest opinions are their own. Originally recorded July 15, 2022

On this first of three "From the Archives" specials, The New Diplomatist is proud to present a never-before-released episode from March 30th of 2022 with Greg Lawson, discussing Russia's War in light of history and grand strategy.  In the sweeping conversation, Greg and Garrison trace the present war in Ukraine through the lens of theory and statecraft, past and present, to yield a fascinating dialogue on the deeper geopolitical realities and forces at work in the conflict raging in Eastern Europe.  From Kissinger to Kennan, the Mongols to Taiwan, its a discussion you won't want to miss.

Greg R. Lawson is a Contributing Analyst at WikiStrat; his 2014 article "Avoiding America's Ultimate Geopolitical Nightmare" published in The National Interest was an insightful and landmark text on the burgeoning Sino-Russian axis (click here to read). He is also a Research Fellow at the Buckeye Institute; his opinions have been widely circulated in the foreign policy community amongst thought leaders in the field, including by Elbridge Colby (author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy; author of Strategy of Denial).  He is a graduate of Ohio State University.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.

Guest opinions are their own. 

In this episode, Garrison was joined by Elbridge Colby, author of The Strategy of Denial and key architect of the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy.

They discuss an overview of Colby’s landmark book and its strategic approach to the rise of China and maintenance of U.S. national defense. In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the two discuss the return of military hard power to European security and world order, including the drastic shift in Berlin and other European capitols towards enhanced defense, and implications for the idea of increased burden sharing. The position of denial is contrasted to the historic trend towards neo-conservative posture on one side or neo-isolationism on the other.

The two discuss the hypothetical fait accompli strategy of Beijing towards a war with Taiwan, and whether or not this describes Vladimir Putin’s intended plan for Ukraine (and lessons that holds for the PRC). Their discussion also focuses on potential pitfalls for US deterrence of a potential conflict in Taiwan given China's greater economic strength vis a vis Russia; the need to balance support for Europe while maintaining a clear higher priority for Washington to focus on China as the biggest national security challenge. The role of scarcity in defense strategy is discussed, with a key focus on the need to differentiate responses based on region, and to accommodate various allied and partner responses based on the immediacy of the respective regional threats. Further discussion focuses on the nature of the Russian military power in a ‘limited war’ and its implications for Moscow’s power projection capabilities; the warning the present crisis presents to Taipei (and questions surrounding stirring Taiwanese commitment to defense); whether taking Taiwan would be harder or easier based on geography when compared to Ukraine; and they close out the discussion on the Biden Administration's response and what must be improved towards both China and Russia.

Colby’s article from TIME Magazine can be found here:

https://tinyurl.com/colbyTIME

Elbridge Colby is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition. He is the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict (Yale University Press), which The Wall Street Journal selected as one of the top ten books of 2021.

Previously, Colby was from 2018-2019 the Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security. Before that, he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development from 2017-2018. In that role, he served as the lead official in the development and rollout of the Department’s preeminent strategic planning guidance, the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) which shifted the DoD’s focus to the challenges to U.S. military superiority and interests posed by China in particular followed by Russia, prioritizing restoring the Joint Force’s warfighting edge against these major power competitors.

Prior to this, Colby was from 2014 to 2017 the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and held numerous roles across the federal government. Colby is a graduate of Harvard College and Yale Law School.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.

Guest opinions are their own. Originally recorded 2/28/22

In this episode, Garrison is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to discuss a wide range of topics about the Ukraine Crisis.

The two discuss the history of NATO expansion and Ukrainian orientation as a few of the factors influencing the timing of the present crisis; the stance of the West; and the strategic motivations behind Russia’s current aggressive posture. The two also discuss the future of potential NATO membership for Kiev, whether or not there is “trade space” regarding the subject of implied Ukrainian neutrality and so forth. They take a careful look at the questions surrounding Germany’s stance under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and what future (if any) there is for Macron’s view of Europe as a “strategic balancer” (exercising strategic autonomy with French leadership) in light of the current security challenges facing the continent. And how has domestic politics influenced London, Berlin, and Paris in their recent stances?

In light of a potential Russian invasion the two discuss possible impacts of sanctions on Moscow and what responses (such as cyberattacks) Putin may undertake in retaliation. Most importantly, Fontaine examines the implications for the “pivot to Asia” if Putin green lights an invasion of Ukraine, and what future U.S. priorities will be in light of a renewed sense of danger in Eastern Europe. The two close by discussing what grade that Fontaine would give to the Biden administration’s handling of the Ukraine crisis and how they might improve that response.

Richard Fontaine is CEO of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He served as President of CNAS from 2012-2019 and previously as a Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow. He also served as foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain for more than five years. He has worked at the State Department, the National Security Council and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Mr. Fontaine served as foreign policy advisor to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign and, following the election, as the minority deputy staff director on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Prior to this, he served as associate director for Near Eastern affairs at the National Security Council (NSC) from 2003-04. He also worked in the NSC’s Asian Affairs directorate, where he covered Southeast Asian issues.

During his time at the State Department, Mr. Fontaine worked in the office of former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and in the department’s South Asia bureau, working on issues related to India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Mr. Fontaine began his foreign policy career as a staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, focusing on the Middle East and South Asia. He also spent a year teaching English in Japan. A native of New Orleans, Mr. Fontaine graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in International Relations from Tulane University. He also holds a M.A. in International Affairs from the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, and he attended Oxford University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.

All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally.

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Originally Recorded Feb 7. 2022

On this episode, Garrison takes a deep dive into the view from Venezuela with the deeply knowledgable Ivan Briscoe, Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean from the International Crisis Group. The two discuss the current state of Venezuelan affairs, tracing the counters of the rivalry between Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaido with their respective claims to the Presidency. Is Juan Guaido losing his sense of legitimacy in the eyes of the opposition forces and the general public? They discuss the failed effort by the Trump administration to topple the Maduro regime, the after-effects of that attempt, and the present outlook for the Venezuelan economy, particular its oil economy and its interactions with China and Iran. They discuss the declining influence of American sanctions, and the condition of the multi-million Venezuelan refugee community inside neighboring Columbia. Briscoe considers the possibility of a Russian build up in the Latin American region with Venezuela as a possible area of focus. And they close by talking through what policies the United States should change in relation to the regional situation in both Columbia and Venezuela.

Ivan Briscoe joined Crisis Group in June 2016 as Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. He has worked on Latin American politics, conflict and crime since 1996. Before joining Crisis Group, Ivan worked as a senior research fellow in the Clingendael Institute of the Netherlands and in the Foundation for International Relations and Foreign Dialogue (FRIDE) in Spain, where he specialized in the study of illicit networks in Latin America, new forms of armed violence and the effects of inequality.

Prior to that, he worked for over a decade as a journalist and editor in Argentina, France and Spain, where he edited the English edition of El Paнs. He has carried out fieldwork-based research in various Latin American countries, including Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru and Venezuela, and has written for numerous media in the region and in Europe. He graduated from Oxford University with a First Class Honour’s Degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics, studied as a Frank Knox Fellow at Harvard University, and also holds a Master’s Degree in Development from the Complutense University of Madrid.

Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.

All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally.

If you enjoyed the episode please subscribe and leave a review for feedback.

Follow The New Diplomatist on social media for latest updates. Thank you for listening.