The New Rules with Alan Pentz

The conversation examines why incumbents lost elections globally in 2024, linking these outcomes to universal economic pressures rather than local political factors. Pentz argues against the notion of political realignment, instead pointing to structural economic issues affecting the middle class, including inflation in essential services. The discussion extends to foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and China, with insights into how economic realities should reshape American strategic thinking.

Episode Highlights:

• [00:02:02] Discussion of post-election analysis and Spain's economic growth
• [00:15:18] Global pattern of incumbent losses across democracies
• [00:34:37] Analysis of political back-and-forth without real change
• [00:41:17] Ukraine conflict analysis and strategic implications
• [00:47:27] Discussion of China's economic and technological advancement
• [00:51:53] Concluding thoughts on political complexity

Episode Resources:

• Alan Pentz on LinkedIn
• Tonya Berenson on LinkedIn
• The New Rules with Alan Pentz on LinkedIn

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

The conversation explores Wilkinson's journey from studying medieval German poetry to investment banking, and eventually running his own investment company. They discuss his philosophy of maintaining a lean business structure while maximizing efficiency, the influence of Warren Buffett on his investment approach, and his views on current global economic challenges. The discussion moves through personal business practices to broader economic issues, including the future of US-China relations and potential economic transformations ahead.

Episode Highlights:

• [01:40] Introduction and background in Germany
• [06:59] Discussion of Buffett's influence
• [12:18] Philosophy on smart work and family balance
• [38:46] Analysis of current economic system
• [50:27] Predictions for future economic challenges
• [57:44] Closing thoughts on small business opportunities

Episode Resources:

• Alan Pentz on LinkedIn
• Steven Wilkinson on LinkedIn
• Pitchfork Papers by Steven Wilkinson on Substack
• The Grant Williams Podcast
• Book Reference: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

The conversation examines how America's obsession with safety has contributed to technological and economic stagnation. They discuss how major catalysts like the pandemic and competition with China are pushing innovation forward, particularly in areas like mRNA technology and AI development. The discussion delves into the massive energy requirements for AI development, the limitations of current renewable technologies, and the likely need for natural gas as a bridge solution. They also explore Europe's economic challenges, particularly Germany's situation, and conclude with an analysis of investment strategies using an extended metaphor from the TV show Succession.

Episode Highlights:

• [00:00:10] Introduction and casual conversation about travel
• [00:03:27] Discussion of safety culture differences between US and Europe
• [00:07:47] Analysis of technological stagnation and recent breakthroughs
• [00:29:55] Examination of energy requirements for AI development
• [00:38:19] Investment strategy discussion using Succession analogy
• [00:48:25] Analysis of diversification and investment advice

Episode Resources:

• Alan Pentz on LinkedIn
• The New Rules with Alan Pentz on LinkedIn
• Corner Alliance on LinkedIn
• Corner Alliance website

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

Alan Pentz and Moses Sternstein dive deep into the changing landscape of capital markets and investment strategies. They examine the shift from a low-interest rate environment that favored private equity and venture capital to a new era of higher rates and increasing healthcare spending. Moses explains how mandatory government spending, particularly on healthcare, has grown from 30% to nearly 70% of the federal budget, fundamentally altering the economic landscape.

The conversation explores Apollo's strategic pivot towards private credit, the evolution of capital markets, and the growing intersection between government policy and private capital allocation. They discuss how asset-heavy investments in AI, clean energy, and infrastructure are changing traditional investment models, and debate the implications of China's industrial policy on global markets.

Episode Highlights:

• [00:01:29] Introduction to the "finance bro" vs "national nursing home" concept
• [00:39:43] Discussion of shifting investment returns from equity to lending
• [00:34:41] Analysis of Apollo's strategy and private credit's rise
• [00:41:16] Exploration of government's role in capital allocation
• [00:47:48] Discussion of asset-heavy investments in modern technology
• [00:49:37] Analysis of market visibility and economic indicators

Episode Resources:

• Random Walk Newsletter - https://therandomwalk.co
• Moses Sternstein on Twitter - @Bozasturtstein
• Alan Pentz on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alanpentz
• Corner Alliance website - https://www.corneralliance.com

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

The conversation delves deep into China's economic strategy and its implications for global trade. Pentz outlines how China's Communist Party views its mission through a historical lens, seeing the industrial revolution as a temporary aberration in China's central role in world history. They discuss how China's current economic model, focused on massive state investment and export-driven growth, is becoming unsustainable for the global economy.

The discussion examines various policy responses, including tariffs, capital controls, and strategic realignment with allies. Pentz argues that the US needs to fundamentally rethink its approach to global trade and potentially implement capital controls rather than rely solely on tariffs. The conversation also touches on the role of Wall Street, Germany's export dependency, and the changing nature of US global leadership.

Episode Highlights:

• [00:03:17] Discussion of the podcast host's recent trip to Ibiza
• [00:05:01] Introduction to China's economic strategy and historical perspective
• [00:28:46] Analysis of potential solutions including capital controls
• [00:39:47] Examination of tariffs versus capital controls as policy options
• [00:45:24] Discussion of US leadership role and vision for the future
• [00:52:10] Preview of future episode on investment strategies
  
  

Episode Resources:

• Alan Pentz on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alanpentz
• The New Rules with Alan Pentz on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-new-rules-with-alan-pentz
• Corner Alliance on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/corner-alliance-inc.
• Corner Alliance website - https://www.corneralliance.com

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

Alan Pentz and Dean Ball engage in a wide-ranging conversation about the state of American manufacturing and strategies for its revival. Ball, drawing from his classical liberal background, offers a nuanced perspective on industrial policy and government intervention. They discuss China's economic model and its global impact, the potential of AI to transform manufacturing processes, and the need for regulatory reform to facilitate innovation.

The conversation touches on various policy proposals, including targeted government support for manufacturing startups, permitting reform, and strategic use of trade policy. Ball shares insights from his visit to El Segundo, highlighting innovative companies that are pushing the boundaries of manufacturing technology.

Throughout the discussion, they explore the balance between free market principles and the need for strategic government action to maintain America's competitive edge in critical industries. The episode concludes with reflections on the importance of preserving and advancing manufacturing capabilities for national security and economic prosperity.
Episode Highlights:

• [00:02:34] Discussion of the importance of manufacturing knowledge and its distribution throughout the economy
• [00:29:51] Exploration of government mechanisms to support manufacturing investors and startups
• [00:38:10] Analysis of the challenges facing traditional manufacturing businesses and the need for modernization
• [00:46:30] Debate on the effectiveness of industrial policy and tariffs in supporting domestic manufacturing
• [00:50:06] Description of El Segundo as a hub for innovative manufacturing startups
• [00:52:24] Detailed example of Rangeview's revolutionary casting technology

Episode Resources:

• Dean Ball on Twitter - https://twitter.com/DeanWBall
• Hyperdimensional Blog - https://hyperdimensional.co
• Mercatus Center - https://www.mercatus.org

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

Alan Pentz and Tonya Berenson engage in a wide-ranging discussion about significant global changes. Alan argues that we're witnessing the end of a 40-year cycle characterized by U.S. predominance, hyper-globalization, and relative stability. They explore the challenges of balancing environmental concerns with energy needs, particularly in light of AI's increasing energy demands.

The conversation then shifts to the Middle East, where they analyze recent developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict and the broader implications for regional power dynamics. They discuss Israel's strategic moves against Hamas and Hezbollah, and how these actions have reshaped the balance of power in the region. The episode concludes with reflections on the potential for further instability and the need for new approaches to understanding and navigating these complex geopolitical landscapes.
Episode Highlights:[00:01:10] Introduction of the main topic: "The Sleeper Awakens"[00:05:34] Discussion on the end of a 40-year cycle of global stability[00:13:17] Analysis of energy challenges and environmental concerns[00:24:26] Exploration of AI's impact on energy demands[00:35:56] Detailed examination of recent developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict[00:50:54] Reflection on the changing power dynamics in the Middle East
Episode Resources:

• Alan Pentz on Linkedin
• The New Rules with Alan Pentz on LinkedIn
• Corner Alliance on LinkedIn
• Corner Alliance website

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

In this episode, Alan and Tonya analyze Mario Draghi's report on the European Union's economic challenges. They discuss the EU's failure to produce large tech companies, widening GDP gaps with the US, and the sustainability of Europe's welfare states. The conversation covers the EU's regulatory approach, particularly towards tech and AI, and its impact on innovation.
They then shift to examining AI valuations and potential bubble concerns, referencing insights from Bob Elliott, former CIO of Bridgewater Associates. Alan explains the challenges of AI adoption in businesses and the gradual nature of AI's impact on workforce displacement and economic changes.
The discussion also touches on the changing dynamics of US foreign policy, questioning Europe's relevance as a strategic partner, especially China. Alan argues for a shift in US diplomatic focus towards Asia.
The episode concludes with a humorous look at Saudi Arabia's ambitious NEOM project, highlighting the potential pitfalls of unchecked ambition and lack of government opposition.
Episode Highlights:

• [00:02:35] Discussion of the EU's lack of large tech companies and widening GDP gap with the US
• [00:06:37] Critique of EU's regulatory approach, especially the AI Act
• [00:09:59] Analysis of Draghi's proposed solutions for the EU's economic challenges
• [00:30:19] Examination of Europe's role as a US partner in dealing with China
• [00:37:24] Exploration of AI valuation concerns and Bob Elliott's insights
• [00:49:01] Humorous discussion of Saudi Arabia's NEOM project

Quotes:

• "The EU hasn't, uh, produced a company in the last 50 years that's worth over $100,000,000,000."
• "The EU the EU has prided itself as the regulator to the world, which in the article I say is, like, priding yourself on strangling kittens."
• "If you wanna be richer in the long term, you need inequality. That's just the way it goes."
• "I do not see US foreign policy. Strategic interests are not in Europe, And, um, I think that that's gonna be that's gonna be the story of the next couple decades."
• "So his point is that if everybody does that all at once and lays everybody off, then no one has any money to buy anything."

Episode Resources:

• Mario Draghi's report on EU economic challenges
• EU AI Act
• Bob Elliott's analysis of AI valuations
• Patrick Boyle's YouTube video on Saudi Arabia's NEOM project

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

Alan and Tonya begin by discussing recent insights into renewable energy, particularly solar power. They explore the often-overlooked "soft costs" of solar installation and the potential for future innovations. The conversation then shifts to a detailed analysis of voter distribution in the US, based on recent polling data. They discuss the implications of this distribution for political strategies and the potential for a new winning coalition.

The episode takes a philosophical turn as Alan explores the fundamental differences underlying political debates. He traces these differences back to historical thinkers like Edmund Burke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, offering a framework for understanding current political tensions. The discussion concludes with reflections on the nature of political change and the concept of "political entrepreneurs."
Episode Highlights:

• [00:01:54] Discussion of solar energy costs and scaling challenges
• [00:14:34] Analysis of voter distribution and political coalitions in the US
• [00:26:59] Exploration of fundamental philosophical differences in politics
• [00:43:23] Reflection on the concept of "political entrepreneurs"
• [00:49:58] Discussion of long-term trends and the potential for political realignment

Quotes:

• "Energy is life, and that hit me. Even if we're doing more with less since the 1970s, why can't we do more with more, even more with more?"
• "I think the real way to win is to kind of be a Trump without the crazy, you know?"
• "What we're fighting about is are humans a blank slate and therefore perfectible? Or are they born flawed?"
• "The fight is going to remain. You are not. The next election is not going to result in a nirvana for your people."

Episode Resources:

• Thomas Pollo's writing on renewable energy
• Echelon Groups article on voter distribution
• Jonathan Haidt's Moral Foundations Theory
• Edmund Burke's "Reflections on the Revolution in France"
• Jean-Jacques Rousseau's political philosophy

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers

Alan Pentz and Tonya Berenson engage in a deep discussion about major changes in the global economic landscape. Tonya, calling in from Spain, highlights the shift in attitudes towards free trade, exemplified by a Wall Street Journal article acknowledging its problems. Together, they examine China's economic model, describing it as a "dagger pointed at the heart of world manufacturing" due to its practice of suppressing wages and subsidizing export-driven sectors.

Their conversation explores historical parallels, including Japan's economic trajectory in the 1980s and the Plaza Accord. They argue that China's current practices are distorting global markets on an unprecedented scale, affecting manufacturing sectors worldwide.

They then shift to discussing future economic trends, predicting higher and more variable inflation rates. This leads to a conversation about changes in investment strategies, particularly challenging the traditional 60/40 portfolio model. The discussion concludes with insights on potential diversification strategies and the need for investors to adapt to these new economic realities.

Episode Highlights:

• [00:02:47] Discussion of changing attitudes towards free trade
• [00:04:30] Explanation of China's economic model and its global impact
• [00:20:26] Analysis of future inflation trends and their economic implications
• [00:28:35] Critique of the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio in light of new economic realities
• [00:32:58] Suggestions for portfolio diversification in the changing economic landscape
• [00:36:18] Reflection on the long-term implications of these economic shifts

Quotes:

• "So what I was surprised at is,  we kind of lived under this regime where, where free trade was, like was like, sacrosanct. And to see an article in the neo-liberal,  leading paper, The Wall Street Journal saying that there were problems with free trade was pretty amazing to me."
• "China has become a massive economy, and for them to continue to suppress the wages of their workers to support  global exports, has become,  what I call the dagger pointed at the heart of the world economy world manufacturing."
• "We're gonna be in this elevated, you know, maybe three, 3-4% inflation, and it'll kinda go all over the place. So it'll go up and down all the time."
• "For the last 40 years, the portfolio to own has been 60% stocks and usually US stocks and 40% Treasury bonds. It's called the 6040 portfolio. And it's sort of like the standard, like, if you're if you're in a,  target date fund at Vanguard or Fidelity or something."
• "I think what we're going to have to do is take a look at our portfolios and start diversifying them. Not That doesn't mean you get rid of all your US stocks and freak people out."

Episode Resources:

• Alan Pentz on Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alanpentz 
• The New Rules with Alan Pentz on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-new-rules-with-alan-pentz 
• Corner Alliance on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/corner-alliance-inc. 
• Corner Alliance website - https://www.corneralliance.com 

The New Rules Podcast is handcrafted by our friends over at fame.so 

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

• Defining and Tracking Outputs: The Key to Employee Performance with John Seiffer
• Small Business Strategies and Market Dynamics with Jon Matzner, President at Lazy Leverage
• Franchising: The Best Business Model with Brian Beers